One day more: How will Warwick vote in the General Election?

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A survey by The Boar has compared the voting intentions of Warwick students ahead of the snap General Election this Thursday. Of over 520 participants, two-fifths responded that they intended to vote for the Labour Party.

A further 29% said they intended to vote Conservative and 17% Liberal Democrat, while an additional 8% said they were undecided. UKIP, the SNP and Green Party each saw less than 2% support. However, a third of those surveyed added that they might change their minds before casting the ballot.

An overwhelming majority of 86% believed that the Conservative Party would win the elections, regardless of their vote. The respondents were primarily undergraduate students from London, the South, South East and Midlands.

On leaving the European Union, 77% responded that they had supported Remain last June, with just over 5% choosing not to vote in the 2016 referendum. More than three-quarters replied that they did not want to leave the EU and single market, while 67% expressed a lack of confidence in the current government’s ability to manage Brexit.

Leader preference was fairly split, with 52% believing Theresa May would make a better prime minister to 48% in favour of Jeremy Corbyn. 76% of those who supported Labour in 2015 preferred Corbyn, alongside 88% of those who still intend to vote Labour on Thursday.

Meanwhile, 89% of 2015 Conservative voters preferred Theresa May over Corbyn as a leader, while 99% of those who intended to vote Conservative this year thought May would be a better prime minister.

While Labour supporters saw an overall 11% increase in support since 2015, Conservative support fell by 16% in the same time period. However, both major parties saw 13% and 16% swings to the Liberal Democrats respectively.

When asked on party policy, 82% of intended Conservative voters said they confident in how the current government was handling Brexit. While leaving the EU and single market and repealing the Human Rights Act saw majority support among likely Conservative voters, almost all Labour and Liberal Democrat supporters were against this.

Just over half of prospective Liberal Democrat voters supported Theresa May’s decision to call a snap election.

Men proved far more likely to vote Conservative, with 37% stating they intended to vote Tory compared to only 19% of women. Only 33% of male respondents suggested they would vote Labour, as opposed to 49% of women.

Londoners were considerably more likely to vote Labour than respondents from other parts of the UK, while in the Midlands, 47% intended to vote Labour, 33% Conservative and 14% Liberal Democrat.

Nearly half of all respondents studying Arts or Humanities replied that they were likely to vote for Labour, more than any other faculty.

46% of students who identified as part of a black, asian or ethnic minority group (BAME) said they intended to vote Labour, with 27% supporting the Conservatives and 13% the Liberal Democrats. 4% reported that they intended to vote UKIP.

Similarly, nearly half of LGBTQUA+ students responded that they intended to vote Labour and a fifth Conservative. 8% from both BAME and LGBTQUA+ groups reported that they were undecided.

Despite a greater fraction of support for Labour among the students surveyed, a recent poll by YouGov has predicted Conservative holds in the both Warwick and Leamington and Kenilworth and Southam constituencies, where many students rent housing. The poll suggested that Labour candidate Jim Cunningham would keep his seat in Coventry South.

For more information on where, when and how you can vote on Thursday, alongside information on the surrounding constituencies, click here.

For a round-up of manifesto policies on education, click here.

Interviews with local candidates are available below:

Warwick and Leamington

Coventry South

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