Meet the candidates: A guide to the 2020 US election

We’re still a year away from the 2020 US Presidential election, but the campaign is already well underway. The Democratic party is trying to find its nominee for the election – but who are the potential candidates, and can they beat such a divisive president?

Currently, if the polls are anything to go by, there are three people at the head of the field, and former Vice-President Joe Biden has been seen as a front runner – before he even announced his candidacy. Widely seen a friendly candidate with a personal touch, Biden has acquired the nickname ‘Uncle Joe’, and he is benefitting from his association with President Obama. His high poll ratings can be explained by both his attempts to position himself as a centrist moderate candidate, differentiating himself from the rest of the field, and his sizeable share of the black vote – polls give Biden a 42% average, and the number has been largely stable since he entered the field.

Currently, if the polls are anything to go by, there are three people at the head of the field, and former Vice-President Joe Biden has been seen as a front runner – before he even announced his candidacy

However, Biden’s mental ability to serve has been questioned throughout this race. He has made numerous gaffes during the campaign, misdating the Parkland shooting tragedy and telling an audience of Asian and Hispanic voters that “poor kids are just as bright” as white children, among other instances. It has been reported that Biden’s allies are reducing his schedule to minimise gaffes, and other Democratic candidates have openly started questioning his memory. He has also been criticised for a very hands-on campaigning style, and was called out in April of this year for inappropriately touching women (criticisms that he denied).

Biden’s strongest opposition thus far has been Vermont senator Bernie Sanders (still registered as an independent). A self-described “democratic socialist”, Sanders is the leftmost candidate in the primary field. His policy positions include raising taxes on the wealthy, increasing the minimum wage to $15 an hour, cancelling all student debt, allowing felons to vote and slashing the defence budget. However, Sanders’ big strength is also his big weakness – socialism is not very popular among Americans, with only 10% expressing a positive view of socialism, and 57% stating that it is incompatible with American values. Although it plays very well with Sanders’ base, he may struggle with the wider population.

However, there is a third player in the game, whose poll ratings have been steadily rising, and that’s Massachusetts senator and former Havard Law School professor Elizabeth Warren. Warren has been gaining support with an incredibly-detailed policy platform, which includes a wealth tax, forgiving a majority of student loan and a ‘Medicare for All’ health insurance system – her anti-capitalistic and class warfare-esque rhetoric is resonating extremely well with her support base. Where Warren really struggles are issues of race – her support among non-white voters is virtually non-existent, and she has been the subject of criticism for claiming Cherokee ancestry.

Sanders is the leftmost candidate in the primary field. His policy positions include raising taxes on the wealthy, increasing the minimum wage to $15 an hour, cancelling all student debt, allowing felons to vote and slashing the defence budge

The rest of the Democrat field is populated by a mix of people with no shot, and those who entered to promising noises and simply haven’t managed to find their footing. Two of the latter group are New Jersey senator Cory Booker and South Bend mayor Pete Buttigieg – they’ve played on their ethnic and religious identity respectively to establish themselves but, in spite of initial media attention calling them the future, both have essentially vanished in a crowded primary field.

When she entered the field, it was expected that California senator Kamala Harris would be a strong contender for the nomination. After the first Democratic debate, in which she attacked Biden for his 1970s-opposition to school busing and his nostalgic references to segregationist senators, she rose to second in the polls, trailing Biden by 17% to 22%. Now, she’s averaging roughly 5%, hit hard by Tulsi Gabbard’s questioning of her prosecutorial record and her hypocrisy on legal issues. Gabbard perfectly hit a nerve that worries critics of Harris – her past as a prosecutor in a Democratic Party that has shifted to an anti-prosecution and anti-‘mass incarceration’ stance, and her flexible political beliefs and over-scripted candidacy. As an example, she initially co-sponsored a ‘Medicare for all’ bill, reversing her stance entirely when polling showed it was unpopular with Americans.

Another campaign that started on a high is that of Beto O’Rourke, a former Texas congressman who came to mass attention during his 2018 Senate campaign against Ted Cruz. He has attempted to inject his campaign with new life in two major ways – firstly, he is uniquely hostile to Israel, even by the standards of the field, strongly opposing President Trump’s embassy move and US funding of the Iron Dome missile defence system. O’Rourke has also made gun control the central tenet of his platform – he advocates expanding background checks and bans on certain weapons, and has now called for a mandatory buyback program for all civilian-owned “assault weapons”.

There are some minor characters still in the race, although it’s expected that they’ll be knocked out fairly quickly/withdraw their own candidacies as the competition hots up, as they’re all polling at 0-3%. Entrepreneur Andrew Yang’s signature policy is a universal basic income proposal, whereby every American would reveal $1000 a month, partly as a means of dealing with increased automation. Julian Castro, secretary for the Department of Housing and Urban Development from 2014-2017, is trying to position himself as the true heir to Barack Obama and is particularly vocal on the issue of immigration.

Beta O’Rourke is hostile to Israel, strongly opposing President Trump’s embassy move and US funding of the Iron Dome missile defence system. O’Rourke has also made gun control the central tenet of his platform – he advocates expanding background checks and bans on certain weapons

We’ve also seen two slightly unconventional candidacies. The author and self-help guru Marianne Williamson quickly became a Twitter sensation by describing how her foreign policy would be guided by “soul force” and that her first act as President would be to call New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern and tell her “girlfriend, you are so wrong” about America not being the best place in the world to raise a child. She has come under fire lately for openly expressing surprise that those on the Left are “so mean”.

The last person I’m going to mention is Hawaii congresswoman and former soldier Tulsi Gabbard. Although her platform is essentially the same as many of the other 2020 Democrats, Gabbard has been praised by those on the Right for her efforts to reach out across the aisle, but criticised by the Left for a non-interventionist foreign policy and longstanding ties to the Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad (with some of her most vocal critics calling her a ‘Republican’).

At the moment, the polls have the nomination heading to either Biden, Sanders or Warren – one big question, however, is where the votes of the other candidates will go when they’re eliminated. The biggest issue for Biden is where the supporters of Sanders or Warren (whichever is eliminated first) will go, as their platforms are far more aligned to each other than that of the former VP. Although Biden is on top of the polls, the combined Sanders/Warren could easily defeat him, and so he’ll need to expand his support base as the campaign progresses and other candidates drop out if he’ll stand a chance of becoming the nominee.

And, of course, there’s the huge Republican elephant in the room – can any of these candidates defeat President Trump? Recent polls have shown Biden, Warren, Sanders and Harris all easily defeating him in 2020, but the polls said exactly the same thing in 2016. Trump is currently tweeting about all of the candidates but, when he knows his enemy, he will really focus his attacks – he will refer to Biden as sleepy, forgetful and too old, Sanders as a dangerous socialist and Warren as ‘Pocahontas’, and a media that has currently downplayed the negatives of the Democrat politicians will be forced to acknowledge them (although likely to discredit them). And, of course, there could be any amount of news stories and gaffes in between now and election day that could destroy either side.

Recent polls have shown Biden, Warren, Sanders and Harris all easily defeating Trump in 2020, but the polls said exactly the same thing in 2016. Trump is currently tweeting about all of the candidates but, when he knows his enemy, he will really focus his attacks

Trump also enters this election with a number of advantages – he’s the incumbent president, and he has an established support base (which has been rising in recent months). He has benefitted from a strong economy and his refusal to bow down to critics and, unpalatable as he is to many voters, Americans aren’t overly keen on any of the potential Democrats either. Although the 2020 candidates are resonating with the party’s base by turning increasingly leftwards, such a turn is not popular among the general public. This is not to say that Trump’s position is comparatively stronger – his overall approval rating has been consistently low, and a majority of voters (52%) say they’ll vote against him in 2020.

So, what should we look out for in this 2020 race? Issues of gun control and immigration are really dividing the party – if there’s another mass shooting or more concerns raised about border crossings, candidates with a clearly-defined line may benefit. If the economy suffers a downturn, it will really hamper Trump’s re-election campaign, giving a massive step up to the eventual nominee. And then, there are cultural factors to consider – in the midst of an ongoing culture war, a particularly censorious Democrat candidate could play very badly. In 2016, a lot of the media came out in support of Hillary Clinton, supporting Trump’s narrative of an establishment and alienating blue-collar voters – a similar move could help Trump once again.

Currently, my gut says that Warren will win the nomination, but her general unlikability and increasingly-left platforms will alienate the wider public, leading to a second Trump win. However, I’m well aware that making predictions is a fool’s game – keep your eyes on the news, because a lot is going to happen between now and November 3, 2020.