Blair casts his shadow over 2010

Oh, what a difference an Easter holiday makes. Dr Roger Duclaud-Williams is typical of those who said the TV debates were unlikely to move public opinion. He said that candidates would opt to play a safety first stance. Nick Clegg, he predicted, would be likely to play his hand more than his opponents. Perhaps 50 percent right and 50 percent wrong. Cameron and Brown would be “cautious” and “predictable” but “Nick Clegg might be a little more adventurous, because why not?”

The election is turning out to be one of the most exciting of the past few decades. But beneath the heated rhetoric and up and downs of the polls, is this election likely to be a historical turning point in policy terms in the same way as Margret Thatcher’s election in 1979 or the post war Labour government? Dr Duclaud -illiams thinks not. The policy positions between the three parties are simply too similar. In the 1979 or 1945 the election battle felt like a truly ideological battle between ideas of left and right.

He argues that Nick Clegg has moved the Liberal Democrats to the centre following 2005 where it previously positioned itself to the left of Labour on a range of issues. Following election defeats of the Conservatives since 1997, there has been a movement towards the centre ground from the right.

But where does this political consensus come from? When asked whether Thatcher or Blair threw a stronger shadow on the general election of 2010, Duclaud-Williams opted for Blair in a position which “combines market principles with social justice.” It is now possible, he argues, to have a balanced debate about the strengths and weaknesses of states and markets and to talk about a “Blairite consensus.” He argues that Blair, following the “swing of the pendulum” to the Right under Thatcher, brought the consensus back to the centre and the Liberal Democrats and the Conservatives have chosen to follow.

Given this view of political consensus, Dr Duclaud-William’s reaction to a hung parliament is unsurprising. He feels that the outcomes in terms of policy are not likely to be radical. He argues that the people of Britain are used to governments serving out their term in office and thus another snap election is unlikely. He also thinks that party leaders will form a coalition and make a statement of what that coalition stands for to make clear the coalition is not “simply a tactical manoeuvre.”

While Duclaud-Williams does not expect a huge amount of policy changes, he predicts that certain constitutional conventions would have to be relaxed. This will include collective responsibility in cabinet government. Ministers would need to have some leeway in expressing their views and disagreements, as opposed to the system of private discussion and public unity convention today.

Duclaud-Williams compared the situtuation in Britain to the one in France. When I asked him how the French reaction to the economic crisis had been different, he answered that it had been fairly similar, in that ruling parties during difficult economic times punish the ruling party whether it is a government of the Left or of the Right. While the conservatives have been the beneficiaries of discontent in the UK, in France the socialist opposition has main gains in recent elections.

One of the questions asked about students at election time is why they are not choosing to vote and for that matter why it is that election turnout across the UK has been falling for the past few decades. Roger’s answer is that the way that we think about politics has become more instrumental and less about defining our identity in terms of political affiliation. Political identity is now expressed less and where it is in supporting causes and issues, believing that change can be brought out through action on these issues rather than party politics.

When I asked Dr Duclaud Williams who he would be voting for and why, he admitted that his answer would contradict his view on the decline in election turnout. While politics was coming to be seen as more instrumental his own voting pattern in voting for the Labour party was more a question of habit and sociological background.

He explained that he is a lifelong Labour voter who has voted for other parties in local elections. He became politically concious in the 1960s, a time when people from his background were more likely to vote Labour. From an ideological point of view, Dr Duclaud Williams argues that there are things which can be achieved better collectively than individually while the market does many things very well. While both parties would accept this fact, the Conservative party has “exaggerated the advantages of the market.” For him it is an “economic and social” decision.