Miocic vs Ngannou: Preview

His was the most silent of celebrations, emitting the glow of the last, blissful raver on the dancefloor when the music’s ended. In two minutes 47 seconds of the first round, Stipe Miocic toppled a three-sport black belt on a six fight win streak to become the 22nd Heavyweight champion in UFC heavyweight histort, scything down the stunned hometown favorite, Fabricio Werdum, in front of the infamously patriotic Brazilian crowd. As Werdum fell to the mat, the stadium plunged into a wintry silence. And there was Miocic, stunned, shouting “I’mma world champ, I’mma world champ!” into the huddle of his corner’s shoulders.

This Sunday 21 January in Boston, Massachusetts (prelims at approx. 1 am, main-card 3am Sunday BST), Stipe is looking to silence the crowd again. The world champion opened as the underdog, the first time since snatching the belt. If Miocic can topple Ngannou he becomes the first heavyweight champion in the UFC’s 25-year history to defend his belt three consecutive times – a testament to a division which has garnered prestige proportionate to its danger.

For the fan who wants to see a stand-and-bang where someone goes down, UFC 220 is likely to delight. Miocic and Ngannou are both knockout artists, and there is no doubt that heavy hands will be thrown. Though it is almost certain that Stipe wants to drag Francis to mat and out-wrestle him, Ngannou has shown that can keep the fight off the mat, off the fence, and at range where his hands are exceptionally dangerous. The match promises to be a tactical clash between exciting styles, and to end with the defenestration of a likeable guy.

For the fan who wants to see a stand-and-bang where someone goes down, UFC 220 is likely to delight

Stipe, for one, is a world champ with a day job. He’s a fighter and paramedic. He has a degree in Marketing and Communications. At 35, he still wears his cap backward, and with a dimpled, easy smile and self-professed shyness, he exudes boyish affability. Nothing sums up Stipe like UFC 211, his second title defense. Still in the octagon after demolishing former champion Junior dos Santos, the crowd still an ecstatic, thundering mass, “the baddest man on the planet” thrust his head into the nearest camera to grin ‘Mom, I love you, happy Mother’s Day, you’re the best mother ever!”

Ngannou grew up as a child-laborer in Cameroon, shuffling sand into trucks. In his 20s he moved to France, living on the streets until he could find somewhere to train to be a boxer. When coaches suggested MMA as a more lucrative option, not only was he not interested, but he had never heard of mixed martial arts. Less than five years later since starting the sport, he has a shot at being the best in the world.

The champ hasn’t opened as the underdog since UFC 198, his title-winning fight against Werdum.  His composure was evident even then. Some fighters pace and pound their fists together; others crawl towards opponents, as if on a dry savannah; still others strut the cage, virtually convex. Miocic, in the biggest fight of his life, flashed a small smile, gave a quick wave. He jogged on the spot as if about to take his old dog on a run through his everydays digs in Independence, Ohio. Stipe is unlikely to be intimidated by yet another heavy-hitter.

The credentials are on Miocic’s side, argues expert analyst Dan Hardy. He is mostly correct. Stipe boasts a 17-2 record in MMA; Francis is 11-1. Stipe entered the sport after winning his state’s Golden Glove amateur Boxing competition and competed as a NCAA Division I wrestler. Francis is a freakishly powerful, athletic phenom, at the apex of elite mixed martial arts just three years after commencing training: but other than raw potential and his impressive UFC record, we haven’t seen Ngannou excel in any of the individual disciplines that make up mixed martial arts, as Stipe has. While some question whether Ngannou has really faced elite-level competition outside of Andrei Arlovski and Alastair Overeem, Stipe’s road to dominance is strewn with starfished four former champions. Even where Francis excels – the one-punch-power that has everyone so excited for this fight – Stipe Miocic exceeds him. Stipe’s knockout rate is 76% (13 of his 17 wins) compared to Ngannou’s 64% (7 of 11 wins).

Francis is a freakishly powerful, athletic phenom, at the apex of elite mixed martial arts just three years after commencing training

Then again, in MMA, statistics and credentials aren’t everything. Legendary heavyweight Mark Hunt has a knockout rate of 77%, negligibly higher than Stipe’s. Yet Stipe gave him a 5-round beatdown so brutal that Hunt was virtually in fetal position for several minutes while commentators opined the virtues of quitting.  The numbers said Mark Hunt had a chance. Stipe’s record 361 strikes against a defenceless opponent shows that, in the Octagon, the numbers don’t always add up.

That’s why, with all that the champ has going for him, so many are predicting a coup. The ‘x-factor’ in the fight may come down to Ngannou’s terrifying physical dominance and power. Unlike other notable heavyweights such as Roy Nelson, Ngannou is a solid mass of muscle, athletic and explosive. He stands at 193 cm (6’4) and 117.48 KG (259 lbs), with arm and leg reaches of 83 and 44 inches. This gives the challenger a 3 and 5-inch reach advantage against the champ. He’s not all potential and no performance.  He’s on a 10-fight winning streak, winning six of his last seven wins by knockout.  Though he claims his favorite striking technique is the elbow, his 2015 debut is defined by an uppercut that melted Luis Henrique. Two years later, in December 2017, that same short-range strike gave us one of the most iconic photographs in UFC history: the uppercut that lifted number one contender and former Strikeforce and K-1 world champion Alistair Overeem off his feet and sent his head back to his shoulders, eyes rolling back in his head.

It is a story of a known versus an unknown, proven skill versus sheer star power

Ngannou has seven first-round finishes. Naturally, such dominance gives rise to questions about his endurance, cardiovascular and mental. Everyone has seen Miocic survive – and be propelled by -adversity: he was dropped and put in a guillotine choke by Overeem, only to overcome the early adversity to secure his first title defense. The challenger hasn’t seen the third round in the UFC, much less the 25th minute of a championship fight. If Stipe decides to unleash his relentless workout rate on Ngannou, tiring him with constant takedown attempts, full out top control or ground-and-pound, could Ngannou endure an onslaught? If so, will he be a diminished fighter for surviving it? Does he have the skills and the resilience to switch gameplans if he can’t land the finishing shot, or Miocic just won’t go down? What about his chin?

Ultimately, this is a difficult fight to predict. It is a story of a known versus an unknown, proven skill versus sheer star power. The champ is smart, tough, well-rounded and experienced. The rational mind says that Stipe, if he stays safe, should do enough to get the nod.

Still, I think that Ngannou’s overall game is underrated. Power isn’t his only asset: he has submissions and the takedown defense to nullify Stipe’s wrestling; he overpowers fighters in the clinch; he muscles out of disadvantageous positions; he is fast and he is patient. Since Ngannou has proved difficult to get down, keep down, or clinch with, it’s unclear whether Stipe’s wrestling or Muay Thai skills will be decisive. Instead, I venture that judo might be Stipe’s best bet. Using trips and sweeps to break Ngannou’s balance and get him on the mat could demoralize Francis, break his momentum, and sway the judges.

One thing we do know about Francis’ mindset is that, in life and in the octagon, the migrant-turned-superstar can seize an opportunity. Stipe only gets hit 38% of the time; Francis doesn’t need too many chances.

This may come down to who has the better basics: who keeps their hands up, and who has the better footwork, cardio, and head movement. Francis needs to bring his best sprawl.  This fight will probably be contested on the feet, and both will look to utilize leg kicks to get an advantage.  I think this fight goes three or four rounds, and the later rounds advantage Miocic.

All Stipe has to do is avoid that power. Easier said than slipped.