May-be she’ll be the next leader?

[dropcap]R[/dropcap]ecently in the Spectator, James Forsyth argued that Theresa May has become “the most interesting” Tory of the day. Her hardening rhetoric on immigration sets her apart from the rest of her party, making her the one to watch in the coming referendum and the Tory Party’s consequential leadership contest.

I concur. May has long been considered a possible successor to Cameron. Although currently lagging behind Boris Johnson and George Osborne in the polls, she has both the standing and the experience required to lead her party in 2020.

The daughter of a clergyman who attended a grammar school, Theresa May is hardly a paragon of privilege, in the way that both Johnson and Osborne could be perceived as being. She has completely avoided the party-of-the-elite critique, turning down a Carlton Club membership while others muddled through Plebgate. This makes her especially apt to succeed Cameron in the project of modernising the now firmly one-nation, compassionate Tory Party to become truly on the side of workers.

She has a strong record as Home Secretary and is now the longest-serving person in the role for fifty years.

In terms of cabinet experience, May is not lacking any. In 2002, she became the first woman chair of the Conservative Party. She has a strong record as Home Secretary – notably her challenge to the Police Federation, and the launch of the Westminster child abuse inquiry – and is now the longest-serving person in the role for fifty years.

May is also a deft strategist and her contentious comments at this year’s conference are a testament to her political ability. By making immigration the centrepiece of her speech, she signalled that she has an alternative to offer the right. She undoubtedly knows that 64% of people are uneasy with the current pace of immigration, and nearly half believe it is “destroying our culture and way of life.” When she claimed that immigrants make it “impossible to build a cohesive society”, she knew she would be heard all over the political spectrum. May’s insipid populism will be swiftly recognised as a vote-winner by pragmatic conservatives.

And what of her opponents in the leadership contest? Indeed, Osborne has a famously dedicated following in the Commons. Unless he finds the long-anticipated bout of financial crisis – when it does take place – particularly difficult to spin in his favour, he will be virtually guaranteed to make it through the MPs’ selection and on to the ballot for Tory members.

But I doubt Johnson will find it as easy. Currently dubbed the most popular prospective Conservative leader in national polls, within the party, it is my impression that members see Johnson’s buffoonery increasingly as a once-endearing quality that could swiftly turn into an electoral liability. He has nothing like May’s administrative experience. Most importantly, Johnson will have little to offer frustrated Eurosceptic Tories – of whom there’ll be many after 2017 – and they will be much more likely to favour May’s hard line on immigration.

Let’s not forget: Corbyn was no parliamentary sweetheart before his own selection.

Presently, Theresa May’s chances to succeed Cameron appear slim. But, if she took the lead in the Leave campaign, she would easily secure the backing needed among MPs to make the ballot. And let’s not forget: Corbyn was no parliamentary sweetheart before his own selection.

With the rise of UKIP and a budding anti-EU sentiment among the public, Theresa May would be the Tories’ chance to let voters disillusioned with the moderate right vent their concerns. There’s no reason to assume the Conservatives will give up their commitment to ruthless pragmatism any time soon. But, with Theresa May in charge, it may well take on an element of conviction. Those of us in opposition should relish the change.