Did ISIS bring down Metrojet Flight 9268?

[dropcap]T[/dropcap]he debate about the threat of the Islamic terrorism has been heated by the latest crash of the Russian airplane in Egypt. On 31 October an Airbus with 224 people on board, traveling from Sharm el-Sheikh International Airport to St. Petersburg, exploded above the Sinai Peninsula. The Russian Metrojet airline representatives quickly stated that the machine was in outstanding technical condition and considered the ‘external factors’ as the only possible cause of the catastrophe.

This is where the revelatory announcement of the Islamic state affiliates comes in. On the day of the crash, ISIS published two messages: one audio clip and one written text. Both claimed that the Islamic State organization was responsible for the plane crash. This disclosure was later supported by a video of Russian-speaking IS members, who praised their ’Sinai brothers’ for the attack.

In contrast, David Cameron, informed mostly by the US intelligence services, has said that the machine ‘may well have been brought down by an explosive device’.

The international community remains divided on the supposed ISIS terrorist strike. The news reports regarding the cause of the plane crash have not been consistent. On the one hand, the Egyptian investigation conducted in affiliation with the Russians, found no traces of explosive materials on victims’ bodies. The doctors discovered that one fifth of the passengers were indeed badly burnt and, hence, concluded that the fire had to spark while the machine was still on track in the air. Still, they did not explain the reason for the sudden explosion.

On the other hand, American officials have announced that their satellite images showed a ’flash’ appearing just before the airplane lost its track. Moreover, the US intelligence service managed to intercept suspicious internal messages between ISIS members. Still, no one has identified the reason for the explosion yet. Consequently, the Egyptians and Russian authorities continue to doubt the terrorist attack. In contrast, David Cameron, informed mostly by the US intelligence services, has said that the machine ‘may well have been brought down by an explosive device’.

Altogether, however, there could be even 200,000 ISIS supporters all around the world.

It is important to realize that the final result of the investigation could have massive international consequences. Even though the terrorists affiliated with the Islamic State have already organized gun massacres, tortures or bomb attacks against foreign tourists and Western civilians, none of these actions could equal to the killing of 224 Russian citizens in the air.

The ISIS military movement has been already recognized as an international threat. Due to its inconsistent and globalized nature, it is hard to estimate ISIS’ manpower. We know, however, that their army is constantly growing. The numbers vary from 40,000 – 50,000 supporters in Iraq and Syria. Altogether, however, there could be even 200,000 ISIS supporters all around the world.

The perspective would change, however, if it turned out that ISIS was indeed responsible for the plane crash

Undoubtedly, the Islamic State has a very rich terrorist network, which has managed to gain control over a vast Middle Eastern territory. Internationally, they have contributed to the spreading of the refugee crisis and, as Farah Pandith from the Harvard University noticed, they changed the “fabric of the globe, both in custom and in tradition”. Still, some critics claim that the threat might be in fact exaggerated. The Islamic state has a limited military capability and focuses on securing a caliphate. In contrast to al-Queda, their claims are geographically specific.

The perspective would change, however, if it turned out that ISIS was indeed responsible for the plane crash. The tragedy from 31st October would be the deadliest terrorist attack against the international community since 9/11 and the Beslan school siege. If the plane crash was Islamic State’s revenge for the Russian intervention in Syria, we would probably enter a new chapter of the war against terror in which al-Queda and America would no longer be the main actors.