The Awards Blog #2: The 2014 Golden Globes Predictions
After having taken a look at the more obscure critics’ awards in the first post, it is time to dig in to the big guns of the awards season. And what better way to start than with the Golden Globes, which are to be held on the night of Sunday, the 12th of January. The Globes are the first “big” awards of the year, preceding the guild awards (most notable the SAG), the BAFTAs and, of course, the Oscars. Unlike other awards, a journalistic body that covers the US film and television industry known as the Hollywood Foreign Press Association chooses them.
Hilariously likened to HPV by Amy Poehler because of their erratic nature, the HFPA are notorious for their unusual choice of nominations and even wins. Naturally, this makes predicting winners something of a gamble, and an entertaining one at that. It should probably be pointed out that predicting who will win over who should win is tricky enough under the best of circumstances but even more so given the fact that some of the films in question have not had their UK releases yet. Nonetheless, an attempt will be made at pointing out potential winners and, if any of the categories go completely against the grain, let it at least be said that it was early in the awards season.
Best Motion Picture – Drama
Nominees: 12 Years a Slave, Captain Phillips, Gravity, Philomena, Rush
One of the quirks of the Golden Globes is the separation of categories into Drama and Comedy/Musical. The distinctions are not all that clear – anyone remember The Tourist getting a Comedy nomination? – but it does allow for a wider range of films to be considered, resulting in refreshing nominations like Rush. Captain Phillips and Philomena are excellent films too, but it really boils down to a two-horse race between Gravity and 12 Years a Slave. On any other platform, McQueen’s masterpiece might have been the slight favourite, but the Globes often tends to reward more modern storylines, like The Social Network’s win over The King’s Speech. Nevertheless, I will go ahead and say 12 Years a Slave for the win based on its overwhelmingly positive response and its US-centric subject matter, though an upset would not be too shocking.
Best Motion Picture – Comedy or Musical
Nominees: American Hustle, Her, Inside Llewyn Davis, Nebraska, The Wolf of Wall Street
Most years, this category comprises of one or two solid films while the rest are light-hearted place-fillers, but the quality this year is arguably stronger overall than the Drama category. Any one of the films would be a worthy winner with three of them having already picked up Best Film awards during the early critics’ choice ceremonies. Nebraska and The Wolf of Wall Street are the two non-winners and could probably be discounted from breaking the trend. Of the remaining three, Her fits the same taste for modernity as Gravity and previous Drama winner The Social Network but might be a bit too inaccessible. Inside Llewyn Davis, meanwhile, might be too “indie” to take home the trophy. So I am going to put my money on American Hustle.
Best Director – Motion Picture
Nominees: Alfonso Cuarón (Gravity), Paul Greengrass (Captain Phillips), Steve McQueen (12 Years a Slave), Alexander Payne (Nebraska), David O. Russell (American Hustle)
Once again, the level of talent makes for a strong category and while some might point to stalwarts like Woody Allen (Blue Jasmine) and Martin Scorsese (The Wolf of Wall Street) being snubbed, there is no satisfactory answer regarding which among the final five should not have been nominated. Each one brings a distinct directorial touch as well, making their nominations very distinct. Greengrass and Payne, however, will not take home the trophy. McQueen would be a popular choice in the UK and Russell would be a popular choice across the pond. However, Alfonso Cuarón takes the win here because of the challenges of filming a work like Gravity.
Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture – Drama
Nominees: Chiwetel Ejiofor (12 Years a Slave), Idris Elba (Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom), Tom Hanks (Captain Phillips), Matthew McConaughey (Dallas Buyers Club), Robert Redford (All is Lost)
With three of the five SAG acting nominations included in this category, it is a safe bet to say that the majority of these actors will go on to get further nominations, including at the Oscars. The HFPA is not particularly sentimental, regardless of their unpredictability, so Redford is a long shot. So is Elba, whose nomination is arguably the only one that can be called a consolation prize. Hanks gives a riveting performance, but he has won a few times already and the Globes have a history of choosing fresh blood (Meryl Streep aside) if the performances are good enough. That leaves McConaughey and Ejiofor, both of playing characters struggling against discrimination, and going through massive personal sacrifice and growth. Both are period performances with strong contemporary appeal as well, so not much difference there. At the end of the day, I will go with Chiwetel Ejiofor because his role has had more exposure, though McConaughey might pull off an upset.
Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture – Drama
Nominees: Cate Blanchett (Blue Jasmine), Sandra Bullock (Gravity), Judi Dench (Philomena), Emma Thompson (Saving Mr. Banks), Kate Winslet (Labor Day)
All five of the nominated actresses have won in this category before, making this the most experienced group of Globe nominees this year. Despite three Brits getting shortlisted, it would be very surprising if the statuette came this way. Winslet takes up the consolation slot so she is definitely out. Thompson and Dench give glowing performances and might have been guaranteed favourites any other year. So would Bullock, who does a far better job in Gravity than she did with The Blind Side, for which she won here before. Indeed, she has already won at a few minor awards. Unfortunately, they all have to contend with Cate Blanchett’s tour de force performance as the unhinged Jasmine. Make no mistake, any other name being called out on the night would be a huge shock.
Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture – Comedy or Musical
Nominees: Christian Bale (American Hustle), Bruce Dern (Nebraska), Leonardo Dicaprio (The Wolf of Wall Street), Oscar Isaac (Inside Llewyn Davis), Joaquin Phoenix (Her)
American Hustle might be nominated in all the relevant acting categories, but there is only one potential winner from that group and it is not Bale. Phoenix gives a sterling turn, but he is probably not loud enough for a Comedy or Musical win. If previous awards are any indicator, Dern and Isaac are the two favourites here as they have already picked up a few wins. Dern in particular would be a heavy favourite, given his SAG nomination and his status as a potential Oscar nominee. The HFPA, however, does not work quite so predictably. Given the quirkiness of his role, perfect for this category, and the general love and adoration he commands, I think Leonardo Dicaprio will win and give fresh ammunition to the “Can we give him an Oscar now!?” groups.
Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture – Comedy or Musical
Nominees: Amy Adams (American Hustle), Julie Delpy (Before Midnight), Greta Gerwig (Frances Ha), Julia Louis-Dreyfus (Enough Said), Meryl Streep (August: Osage County)
This one is going to be fun to look at just because none of these fantastic ladies, except maybe Streep, are going to be major contenders in other awards. Which is a real shame, because some of the performances are really good. That being said, Louis-Dreyfus and Gerwig are not really expected to win and it is likely that “happy to be nominated” will have to be their final say on the matter. Critically, Delpy has had a lot of acclaim and would be a worthy winner. Adams, like Dicaprio in the Actor category, would be a sympathetic winner given her long history of awards shows woes. However, this is the one category where the HFPA are likely to get sentimental and the reason is two simple words. Meryl Streep. Sure, she might have won eight times already but she did not win last year so I think she is due another acceptance speech.
Best Performance by a Supporting Actor in a Motion Picture
Nominees: Barkhad Abdi (Captain Phillips), Daniel Brühl (Rush), Bradley Cooper (American Hustle), Michael Fassbender (12 Years a Slave), Jared Leto (Dallas Buyers Club)
First off, I want to say that it is great to see Abdi and Brühl get recognition for their roles, and at the SAGs. They got a lot of rave reviews, and deservedly so, when their respective films came out but when the awards season came around, their early releases seemed to have lost momentum. However, they are both unlikely to win and will sadly have to be satisfied with their nominations. Cooper played second fiddle to co-star Jennifer Lawrence at last year’s awards; this year, he is playing fourth behind Lawrence, Amy Adams and Christian Bale. Expect him to go home empty-handed too. Fassbender and Leto are the strongest bets at a win, mirroring their co-stars’ rivalry in the lead Actor category. This time, the roles are very different – Fassbender a harsh antagonist, Leto a vulnerable protagonist – which might actually make predicting the final result harder. In the end, I am going with Jared Leto because I think the HFPA would want to balance the (potential) loss for Dallas Buyers Club in the lead Actor category, in addition to Leto’s positive reception at other awards.
Best Performance by a Supporting Actress in a Motion Picture
Nominees: Sally Hawkins (Blue Jasmine), Jennifer Lawrence (American Hustle), Lupita Nyong’o (12 Years a Slave), Julia Roberts (August: Osage County), June Squibb (Nebraska)
When a heavy hitter like Roberts represents one of the weaker entries in an acting category, you know the quality of work is extremely high. There are no weak performances in the category, but some are stronger and that makes the key difference. By that process, Roberts is out. So is Hawkins, who has the misfortune of being overshadowed by her co-star Cate Blanchett in her own film, in addition to her fellow nominees. Squibb suffers from a lack of publicity regarding her role. Lawrence would have been guaranteed a win if the supporting categories were separated by genre, and if she had not already won a Globe last year. However, my final pick for this one is the devastatingly worthy Lupita Nyong’o, although I would not be sad to see Jennifer Lawrence defy her runner-up prediction.
Best Screenplay
Nominees: Spike Jonze (Her), Bob Nelson (Nebraska), Jeff Pope and Steve Coogan (Philomena), John Ridley (12 Years a Slave), Eric Warren Singer and David O. Russell (American Hustle)
Perhaps the category that suffers most noticeably for not being separated along the traditional lines (Adapted Screenplay and Original Screenplay), it is easy to point out snubbed nominees like Gravity, Dallas Buyers Club or the intriguing All is Lost. At the same time, the five finalists are all worthy competitors. This category is often seen at the Globes as a consolation prize for a much-loved film that fails to gain traction in the Best Motion Picture and Best Director categories. With that in mind, it pains me to leave out 12 Years a Slave and American Hustle. Of the remaining three, Nebraska and Philomena are more traditional and, in this particular category, that might actually hurt them. So I am going to pick a win for Spike Jonze’s Her. Oh and yes, Alan Partridge is now a Golden Globe nominee.
Other Categories
The following categories are either not as competitive as the rest (such as Best Animated Feature) or they are not ones which are easily predictable without guild awards results (like Best Score). So here is a quick run-down of the remaining categories and my potential winners:
Best Foreign Language Film – Blue is the Warmest Colour (Other nominees: The Great Beauty, The Hunt, The Past, The Wind Rises)
Best Animated Feature – Frozen (Other nominees: The Croods, Despicable Me 2)
Best Original Score – 12 Years a Slave (Other nominees: All is Lost, Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom, Gravity, The Book Thief)
Best Original Song – “Let It Go” Frozen (Other nominees: “Atlas” The Hunger Games: Catching Fire, “Ordinary Love” Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom, “Please Mr. Kennedy” Inside Llewyn Davis, “Sweeter Than Fiction” One Chance)
So there is my list of possible winners. If the Golden Globes keep up their usual record, I am guaranteed to get most of these wrong, particularly the ones that are between two strong contenders. If anything, the only things I am confident to predict are that the fashion will be expensive and the hosting by Tina Fey and Amy Poehler will be absolutely bonkers, in the best way possible.
Comments (2)