Unemployment isn’t quite as inevitable as they say

What I’m about to write is something you probably haven’t read in the media before. They are so caught up with attracting their readers with stories of doom (apparently we crave this stuff) that their sense of perspective has vanished. The topic I am talking about is youth unemployment.

The media is making a huge noise over this. How many times have you heard the phrases ‘lost generation’ and ‘lost decade’ over the past few months? You could be forgiven for thinking you will die lonely in a cave with rotting teeth from the way our future is portrayed. This is typical; the media are so caught up in embroidering stories and cherry picking statistics that they fail to put any sense of perspective on the situation.

So are we all doomed to the dole queues? In no way am I trying to belittle the crisis, but I really don’t think so. We are certainly in very difficult times and finding a job is extremely difficult, especially one you want to make a career from. Having said that, it’s important to look at our current situation and put it in perspective.

Youth (the category is officially counted as 18-24 year olds) unemployment is hovering just above 20 percent, the equivalent of 1.04 million people, according to the Office for National Statistics. This is extremely high of course, but if you dig a bit deeper a different story emerges.

First, it should be noted that we have been here before. Whilst measurements differ slightly, youth unemployment in the aftermath of the 1980s recession was even higher than it is now. In 1984 over 1.2 million young people were unemployed, remaining above one million for many years.
You should feel a bit more confident with this news. The graduates back in the mid-eighties will now be turning fifty, and I can imagine that the typical reader’s parents are likely close to that age. They were certainly not a lost generation, so why should we be?

Undoubtedly, we face unique problems. Our parents were the baby boomers, rising to high levels of wealth very quickly. Now all the old buggers need their pensions paid for, and because our national insurance works the way it does, the money must come from the next generation. However, this is nothing that can’t be dealt with, and whilst it may mean higher national insurance contributions and a higher retirement age, it is unlikely to have a long-term impact on the level of employment beyond the effect on incentives.

Another silver lining (at least for us students) is the figures for university graduates. Only 4.9 percent of 24-year-old graduates are unemployed. This is similar to the long-term average unemployment rate for the UK as a whole and is certainly something positive to take out of what is usually such glum news. To make matters even better, graduate recruitment is up 6.4 percent this year, as companies’ confidence slowly begins to pick up.

A final factor that can make many feel blue about their employment prospects is what I call the ‘Warwick factor.’ It seems as though we are in a bubble, pressured on all sides by the need to land that perfect job the first time around. Whilst this is surely a noble aim, there is no need to panic if you don’t pull it off. If worst comes to worst, you may have to take a year or two out after you graduate and enjoy the best years of your life. Hardly a terrible set of circumstances.

So the next time you read about how doomed our generation is, don’t take it too seriously. As graduates from one of the country’s best universities, I think we’ll be just fine.