A fallen dictator is an ally lost

Sana’a. Manama. Tripoli. Tel Aviv. Tehran. Cairo. Tunis. Spot the odd one out. Obvious? Think twice. Yes, Tel Aviv is not an Arab city. Yes, it is (to some extent) part of a fully democratic state . Yes, it is not experiencing the same general upheaval as the others.

But Tel Aviv, just like the rest, is now biting its lips, asking the same question that is currently haunting all Arab cities: What next? It is, just like its counterparts, anxiously waiting for the finale of this new saga – if there will be one.  

The Jasmine scent has made the whole region shiver; no one has stayed indifferent, not even Benjamin Netanyahu. No one can afford to stay indifferent especially not Israel, for every leader that falls is an ally that might be lost. The future of its relationship with Egypt might already be in jeopardy. With Mubarak gone, no guarantee can yet be made on who will run the country next. Egyptians wish for a new democratic government, Western leaders hope for a new compliant leader. 

Which side is naïve? It’s still hard to tell right now. The army, currently in power, is still holding on to the same foreign policies as Mubarak; it doesn’t want a war. Breaking the peace treaty would be too expensive. 1.3 $ billion dollars expensive to be exact.  Funny to see that peace can be bought, right?

However, given the current situation, the same question comes up again: What next? If the revolution carries on and the will of the people triumphs, Egypt’s relationship with Israel will fundamentally change. Egyptians in general will either want a cold peace, or more dangerously, a revision of the Camp David agreement. The prospects for Israel seem bleak. First Turkey, now Egypt.

The Libyan government will hopefully soon fall; no one can say who could replace Gaddafi in that case. The only friendly regime left for Israel in the region is Jordan. For Now. So, once again, what next?  

Many scholars agree that any period of regime changes is a precursor to conflict: is the Middle East then on its way for a new Arab-Israeli war? For everyone’s sake, let’s hope not. The repercussion of such a conflict will be disastrous. The world economy cannot handle a new oil shock; the world leaders cannot afford a new legitimacy crisis. The West is already now widely unpopular in the Arab world for its hypocritical attitude towards what now seem to be like yesterday’s leaders. Obama has just lost the bit of credibility he still had after his last UN veto earlier this month. France is trying in vain to regain its lost popularity after it publicly offered Tunisia’s now fallen president support to tame the upheaval. Israel is therefore now in a very delicate position.  

In order to avoid a large scale conflict, it will probably try to quickly prove its military superiority. The easiest way to do it? Go back to Lebanon, eradicate Hezbollah and cleanse the South of the country; third time’s a charm they say.

Most Arab countries are too weak right now to intervene in a new conflict. The only immediate threat to Israel is Iran, who is trying its best to play with everyone’s minds: earlier last week, the first Iranian warships passed through the Suez Canal for the first time since 1979. Destination? Syria. Will it then intervene in case of a new Israeli Lebanese war? It is unlikely. Iran has proved that it prefers rhetoric to action when it comes to this conflict.

Israel is then now more than ever at a crossroad. The path it will choose will depend on the evolution of the Arab world, but will also determine the development, or potentially the prologue, of this bittersweet Arabian tale. Let’s hope it chooses wisely.