Alright on the night?

Sunday, March 7th will be a night full of glamour, glory, and for many, gut wrenching defeat as they watch their rivals walk away with what rightfully should be “their” Academy Award. I am, of course, referring to the Oscars rolling around the bend again, and with no film clearly ahead with more nominations than any other, and the new system allowing for ten best picture nominees rather than the standard five, this looks like a year where it will all be to play for.

However is this really the case? For while there are now more nominees now for best picture, realistically there are still only a few that can be seen as real contenders. District 9 and A Serious Man, receiving neither a BAFTA or Golden Globe Best Film Nomination between them, cannot be seriously seen as competition. While no single film is dominating the nominations Avatar and The Hurt Locker are clearly leading the pack. However Oscar is prone to throw curveballs at the last minute (Mickey Rourke losing best actor to Sean Penn last year) and this year no lead actor or actress has won more than one major award, and both the Hurt Locker and Avatar have a best film award each. Therefore, it may seem a foolhardy task to even attempt to predict the results of the most important date in Hollywood. However that is the unfortunate task I have set myself. Just remember that the views of this individual reviewer do not represent anything other than personal opinion and educated guesswork, and I will not be held liable for any foolish bets you choose to make.

Starting with an easy category to predict, I don’t think it is too radical to suggest Pixar’s latest effort Up might reward them with the best animated feature award, taking their total wins in this category to five , an unparalleled success rate. While this was a strong year for animation, with Disney’s return to 2D with The Princess and the Frog, and the astounding Coraline, Pixar have the Midas effect when it comes to films, and the fact that Up is also in consideration for a best picture gong is evidence of the academy’s love for the studio. However, I do have a point of contention with the fact that Up is apparently eligible for both categories. It is widely accepted that the Best Animated Feature Oscar, introduced only in 2001, was a reaction to Pixar’s Toy Story. While the film was truly brilliant, the academy could not agree on whether it should be eligible for a Best Picture award, and so it received nothing. Out of this the animated feature Oscar was brought in. However, with Up’s double nomination, I feel the academy has somewhat contradicted itself, and it either needs to set a standard that animation is a completely separate category to live action, or that animation is now expected to constantly set a high enough standard to compete with the other nine best picture nominees. It can’t be both ways, and while Up is truly a fantastic film, it doesn’t deserve two nominations which are essentially for the same thing.

Writing awards are often the best chance for smaller comedies (a genre of film often ignored by the Oscars) to succeed at the ceremony, and the inclusion of In The Loop and A Serious Man at this year’s event show this trend continuing. Normally it also allows smaller films not in contention for Best Picture awards to win something, but this year with the new ten film limit, eight of the ten writing nominees are up for best picture also. As for who will take away the gold, Up in the Air and The Hurt Locker look set for best adapted and best original screenplay Oscars respectively with previous victories in other awards behind them, but it would be foolish to rule out either Quentin Tarantino’s script for Inglorious Basterds, or Armando Ianucci’s In the Loop. Oscar loves to be quirky now and again, picking someone away from the norm, and the writing award gives the ample opportunity to. Rewarding either perhaps the most deified movie writer today, or an internationally little known Scottish satirist (especially in this political climate) would be far from a ridiculous notion, and would add some nice variety and spontaneity to the awards.

For once this year the supporting actor and actress awards seem like sure things, with both Christoph Waltz (excellent as Tarantino’s “Jew hunter”) and Mo’ Nique (somehow seeming even more evil than Waltz in Precious as an abusive mother) winning everything set before them. The main acting awards are more open to discussion, as while Sandra Bullock and Jeff Bridges took golden globes, Carey Mulligan and Colin Firth took the BAFTAs. While the BAFTAs to my mind do tend to favour “home grown” talent at times, there can be no denying that all four of these performances have generated tremendous critical acclaim, and when you also factor in that past winners Helen Mirren, George Clooney, Morgan Freeman and the most acclaimed actress of all time Meryl Streep (racking up a stupendous sixteen nominations throughout her career)all have nominations too, this is the stiffest competition actors have faced for quite a few years.

But while all of these awards mean much to those who win them, the academy’s most prestigious two awards, left until the end of the evening, are for Best Director and Best Picture. This year I don’t think I am going out on a limb by stating that either of these awards are most likely to end up in James Cameron or Kathryn Bigelows’ pockets for either Avatar or The Hurt Locker. The big debate however instead seems to be which will go where, and will one of the two films be snubbed completely and win neither? The Golden Globes gave the unceremoniously nicknamed “Pocahontas with Smurfs” both their top awards, while the BAFTAs gave theirs to the slightly more positively monikered “Platoon for the Iraq war”. Making the contest more exciting is the fact that both directors used to be married to one another, and if you think it is fun to watch actors and actresses grind their teeth while pretending to be pleased for rivals who beat them to awards, think about how much fun it will be to watch the award be taken from someone and given to their ex spouse (only, of course, if you take delight in that sort of thing). My personal view on who will win? I think Avatar will take the coveted Best Picture Oscar as for many Avatar was less of a film and more of an all round experience. The technical brilliance, engaging storyline, and exciting strides in movie technology all combine to make a terrific piece of cinema, and that is something I feel the Academy will reward.

However, in terms of “achievements in directing” I believe The Hurt Locker will be the victor. Bigelow takes a little (a limited cast, a sparse script, barren locations, and perhaps most importantly a small budget) and creates a suspense filled, tension driven piece of cinema that will have viewers on the edge of their seats. This is a remarkable feat of filmmaking, and surely will have been noticed, and not only will awarding the Oscars this way reward the two filmmakers for their individual successes, but it will also keep both camps happy and feel they have achieved something. While Oscar rarely bows to sentimentality and pressure, it is always aware of it, and keeping two successful filmmakers happy will be something it is eager to do.

However, it is worth remembering my previous claims that anything can happen on the night, and the only way to be sure of who is a winner is going to be to tune in on March 7th and see for yourself. There is no denying that it is the most star studded event in the world, and the most important event in the filmmakers’ calendar that everyone in the film industry aspires to. For those that win it will mean a greater creative freedom and this can lead to other filmmaking successes. For example, Peter Jackson had the freedom to produce District 9 because of the success of Lord of the Rings, and this allowed him to launch Neil Bloomkampf’s career with this multiple nominated debut. As long as the Oscars continue to create inspiration and opportunities like this then to my mind they are already a huge success, and the overall winners are the movie going public who get to witness the results of this creativity.