After Gorton and Denton, is the tide turning?

Had I been invited by my English teacher (or a hopeless classmate) to produce a definition of ‘pathetic fallacy’, I’d have no doubt made reference to ‘the weather’ in general. But I only ever used the device when remarking upon the coincidence of an exam and inclement weather: “Pathetic fallacy?” was my eternal refrain – proving my wit. So, really, I just associated it with rain. Then, inexplicably, on the morning of 22 June 2021, I exclaimed, “Pathetic fallacy!”, not to rainfall, but for once to glorious beams of sunlight, because I knew they promised good news of some kind…

Beyond that, the sun didn’t tell me much, so I interrogated my phone. As it turned out, the Tories had lost the seat where I live, Chesham and Amersham, in a by-election to the Lib Dems, after a century of local dominance. This, I propose, was the beginning of the end of the Tory government.

The Greens will be propelled to new, soaring heights, mostly at the expense of Labour

Cynical readers will dismiss me by claiming that I, as a resident of Amersham, am biased towards the idea that we, of all people, are somehow at the centre of a grand narrative, telling of the collapse of the world’s oldest political party. Bear with me.

Boris Johnson’s Tories had been riding high in the polls after a successful vaccine rollout, while the opposition, led by Sir Keir Starmer, had been floundering. But, in an instant, the myth of Brand Boris, with its aura of success and inevitability, was reduced to rubble: the Tories were suddenly beatable. I like to imagine the 30-foot inflatable effigy marking Boris Johnson’s triumph in Hartlepool abruptly deflating – and letting out a flatulent whimper of death.

The by-election brought us to the precipice of a new era of disciplined tactical voting among sympathisers of Labour and the Lib Dems, as, soon after, supporters of the latter returned the favour to the former, with the Tories denied a Labour seat in an upset loss. The momentum the Tories had enjoyed reversed, and their spiral into scandal continued. It was Chris Pincher’s (alleged) validation of nominative determinism that finally slammed shut Boris’ political coffin. The rest, as they say, is history.

Now, if this article has any hope of being relevant, I had better explain why my assertions about my hometown’s by-election could apply to the one that was recently contested in Gorton and Denton.

First, I would propose a similar shift in momentum: the Greens will be propelled to new, soaring heights, mostly at the expense of Labour; scores of left-wing voters, whose only consternation about voting Green was that they “won’t ever win”, will now look upon the party in an entirely new light as they, well, won.

Labour as a whole is now at serious risk of losing the mantle of the only party that can stop Nigel Farage from becoming Prime Minister

In fact, their previous by-election record of 10% was beaten four times. Already, YouGov has placed the Greens five points ahead of Labour. Brutally for Labour, the Greens can reasonably hope to compound this momentum in May’s local elections, especially in London.

Next, as Chesham and Amersham brought Boris crashing down to the earth from the heavens of impenetrability, how will Starmer’s fortunes fare after last week’s contest? Well, he is already better acquainted with the proverbial earth, so, frankly, his nigh-on-doomed prospects haven’t been altered dramatically. That isn’t to say Labour acolytes won’t be furious with him after he blocked their only chance of winning the by-election in Andy Burnham.

Starmer die-hard readers will gleefully counter me by pointing out that, upon Burnham’s hypothetical victory, he would have marched to Westminster and challenged Starmer’s leadership within about five minutes. And then a by-election would have been called for the Greater Manchester mayoralty, which Reform might have won.

Ironically, the shortcomings of this criticism illustrate the existential nature of the threat the Greens pose to Labour in the wake of this by-election, and how this could augur a tactical voting landscape at the next general election less favourable to Labour than the one precipitated by the Chesham and Amersham by-election in the last parliament.

I’m not claiming that Starmer’s decision was shortsighted simply because it didn’t help him remain prime minister. Rather, it was shortsighted because Labour as a whole is now at serious risk of losing the mantle of the only party that can stop Nigel Farage from becoming prime minister.

Gorton and Denton will endow the Greens with formidable momentum, leaving Labour struggling to justify their existence, let alone to rally the nation behind them

What some in the Westminster commentariat term the ‘Macron strategy’ of Labour casting itself as the tactical vote to block Reform from forming a government, uniting left-leaning voters with disparate ideologies behind the Labour banner, is looking unpropitious, to say the least.

If, instead, Greater Manchester had a by-election, the Greens would likely not have featured in the top two, and no matter who won out of Labour and Reform, it would have been a victory for Labour in cultivating this strategy. And if, instead, Andy Burnham led the Labour Party, perhaps a tactical vote wouldn’t be such a bitter pill to swallow for some Green supporters. Alas…

By-elections can define, and have defined in the past, the trajectory of the parliament, and the tactical voting dynamics of the following general election. In this parliament, Gorton and Denton will endow the Greens with formidable momentum, leaving Labour struggling to justify their existence, let alone to rally the nation behind them and bind Reform in a cordon sanitaire.

Labour could yet have a few tricks up their sleeves: a new leader, with a possible associated honeymoon period – and they can call the election whenever they like. But if Labour are rock-climbing, they’re running out of rope – and caught in torrential rain (pathetic fallacy).