Why now is the worst possible time for Greenland’s independence

Greenland is currently Ground Zero for an escalating row between the United States and Denmark (but largely Europe). The US, under the Trump administration, is pushing heavily for US control of the territory, while Denmark maintains its position as the sovereign ruler of Greenland, a position it has occupied since the early 17th century. As justification, the US is citing national security concerns – worrying that without US control, “there’s not a thing that Denmark can do” if Russia or China decide to invade the territory. President Trump said in a press conference in the Oval Office on the 14th that “If we don’t go in [to Greenland], Russia’s going to go in and China’s going to go in.” 

…the desire to acquire Greenland has little to do with the legitimate security concern that exists, and much more to do with US expansionism

However, the US already holds the ability to strengthen defence in Greenland without violating Denmark’s national sovereignty. The 1951 Defence of Greenland Agreement accords the United States several freedoms in Greenland, including: 

1. the ability to construct, install, maintain, and operate facilities and equipment, including meteorological and communications facilities and equipment, and to store supplies 
2. the ability to station and house personnel and to provide for their health, recreation and welfare 
3. the ability to provide for the protection and internal security of the area 
4. and the ability to control landings, take-offs, anchorages, moorings, movements, and operation of ships, aircraft, and waterborne craft and vehicles, with due respect for the responsibilities of the Government of the Kingdom of Denmark regarding shipping and aviation 

All of this is to say, the desire to acquire Greenland has little to do with the legitimate security concern that exists and much more to do with US expansionism. As contested territories often do, Greenland has very few appealing options to respond to the US’ threats.  

Without Denmark, an independent Greenland would not be a member of NATO, would not have its own military, and would very quickly find itself negotiated away to the US

Danish control of Greenland, and therefore its proxy membership of NATO, is the sole line of defence protecting Greenland from immediate US control. If the US is willing to threaten allies to acquire Greenland, it is a certainty that it will not respect the sovereignty of a newly independent, unarmed, non-NATO country. There is extremely little chance that Greenland would hold a referendum for independence, as it would simply be a vote for US control. As such, now is the worst possible time to speculate about independence for Greenland – it is simply not possible. 

Without Denmark, an independent Greenland would not be a member of NATO, would not have its own military, and would very quickly find itself negotiated away to the US in order to dissuade Trump from his threatened 25% tariff on European countries should they refuse to allow him control of Greenland. As the increased European military presence indicates, security in the Arctic is being buttressed with the implication of concern for a US invasion. As reported by the Guardian, EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said, “The EU stands in full solidarity with Denmark and the people of Greenland.”  

The Prime Minister seems confident that the conflict can be resolved and that he can find a “solution rooted in partnership, facts and mutual respect”. I’m not so sure.

With all this in mind, unless European negotiators manage to tame the Trump administration’s dogged pursuit of control of Greenland, the more likely outcome is a tiresome and consequential trade war. Trump has already demonstrated his willingness to wage economic warfare against close allies, and the EU cannot afford to appear weak in response to US hostility. What is more up in the air is the position that the UK will find itself in should the US-Europe trade war come to pass; caught between two close allies in the US and the EU, the UK must take special care so as not to avoid upsetting theoretical allies on either side. 

In a press conference on Monday morning, Prime Minister Keir Starmer said that he “will support” Denmark’s “fundamental” right to decide the future of Greenland, and condemned the use of tariffs against allies as “completely wrong”. What he didn’t say was anything concerning retaliatory measures, stopping short of the strong language used by other European leaders in response to Trump. The implication is that the UK will take more of an appeasement angle towards the US, a policy that may cause tension with European allies, who are more united in opposition. The Prime Minister seems confident that the conflict can be resolved and that he can find a “solution rooted in partnership, facts and mutual respect”. I’m not so sure.