The United States and Venezuela – What is Trump’s endgame?

The alleged presence of Cartel de los Soles, a supposed Venezuelan drug cartel, is causing extreme tension between the US and Venezuela. However, whether this cartel actually exists is a mystery. Over the past few weeks, the Trump administration has been striking down boats they claim to be trafficking drugs into the US, claiming the Cartel de los Soles is responsible. Under the orders of Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth, since September, a total of 21 strikes have been conducted as of December 1 2025, killing at least 83 people.

While designating the group a terrorist organisation gives US law enforcement broader powers to dismantle it, it also creates a narrative that the cartel is a real group of threatening people actively smuggling drugs into the US

In November, the Trump administration designated the Cartel de los Soles a terrorist organisation. Mike LaSusa, an expert in organised crime in the Americas, told the BBC in October that the Cartel de los Soles was not actually a group, but rather a “system of widespread corruption”. While designating the group a terrorist organisation gives US law enforcement broader powers to dismantle it, it also creates a narrative that the cartel is a real group of threatening people actively smuggling drugs into the US. They claim that the operation of the Cartel de los Soles reaches the highest levels of the Maduro government – President Nicolás Maduro himself. Maduro has held power in Venezuela since 2013, but the last election in 2024 is widely thought to have been rigged in his favour. Over the past 20 years, Venezuela’s drug problem has been central to issues around the country, and after years of oil-fuelled prosperity, the instability of their government has made them a significantly more fragile state with electoral dishonesty.

In 2018, during his first term, Trump floated the idea of military intervention in Venezuela, reportedly asking his cabinet why the US could not intervene to remove the government of Nicolás Maduro on the grounds that Venezuela’s political and economic unravelling represented a threat to the region. Then, in 2019, the US ramped up sanctions and tariffs targeting Venezuela’s oil sector, the largest oil sector in the world. Under Biden, sanctions were eased, and some pressure on Venezuela was relieved after an agreement was made between the two countries whereby sanctions would be eased if the next election in the country was monitored by international observers. In 2024, Maduro claimed victory in an election that international observers said was won by his opponent. The US and 10 Latin American states rejected Maduro’s status as president of Venezuela.

While the US continues to insist its reasons for sinking these boats are to limit drug trafficking, a key promise in Trump’s inaugural address just over a year ago, Venezuelan opposition figures, Trump administration sources, and independent political analysts have suggested that the US’s true motive is regime change. A deployment this large could be a build-up to show strength and impose fear among Venezuelans, those supporting Maduro, and those in Maduro’s close circle, in hopes they may move a gainst him. Whether or not this pressure has affected Maduro’s inner circle is unclear, but a change from urging Venezuelans to phase out ‘American’ words like ‘skatepark’ and ‘fashion’ to bursting into singing John Lennon’s Imagine during a speech about US tensions, shows it is clear that the pressure may have got to Maduro himself.

Some current and former US officials and law-of-war experts have said that the Pentagon’s lethal campaign is unlawful and may expose those most directly involved to future prosecution as war crimes or murder

Over the past few days, however, the US’s operations in Venezuela have been the target of criticism from US lawmakers who take issue with some of the strikes from earlier this week. On Friday, the Washington Post reported that Pete Hegseth ordered his department to “kill them all” after finding that two men survived a strike on a small boat that they concluded was carrying drugs. Some current and former US officials and law-of-war experts have said that the Pentagon’s lethal campaign is unlawful and may expose those most directly involved to future prosecution as war crimes or murder. They claim that because the alleged traffickers posed no imminent threat to the US, and there is no war between the US and Venezuela, killing any of the men in the boats amounts to murder, Todd Huntley, a former military lawyer, told the Washington Post. Hegseth took to social media to denounce the reports of ordering the second strike, killing the two men left on board. He wrote: “As usual, the fake news is delivering more fabricated, inflammatory, and derogatory reporting to discredit our incredible warriors fighting to protect the homeland.”

While Trump and his team seem to back Hegseth currently, if and when US lawmakers take action against Hegseth and those who followed his orders, it will be interesting to see whether the Trump administration stays as united as they make out to be now

The Trump administration often uses the guise of ‘fake news’ to prove its innocence; it is often a successful strategy. However, Hegseth’s non-military background and controversial nomination after being accused of sexual misconduct, financial mismanagement, and alcohol issues didn’t stop his confirmation. He also managed to keep his job after The Atlantic’s editor, Jeffrey Goldberg, published an article revealing he was accidentally added to a Signal group chat where Hegseth discussed confidential security matters. Just this month, Trump said he believed Hegseth’s denial of being involved in a second strike. White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said in a press briefing that “President Trump and Secretary Hegseth have made it clear that presidentially designated Narco terrorist groups are subject to lethal targeting in accordance with the laws of war.” While Trump and his team seem to back Hegseth currently, if and when US lawmakers take action against Hegseth and those who followed his orders, it will be interesting to see whether the Trump administration stays as united as they make out to be now.

One of Trump’s biggest electoral promises was to stop wars across the globe. He famously claimed that he would end the conflict between Ukraine and Russia ‘on day one’. The conflict entered its third year a month after Trump’s inauguration in January. Some ask why Trump is getting involved in the happenings of foreign countries after running on an ‘America First’ agenda – as former MAGA cheerleader Marjorie Taylor Greene posted on X: “Fix health insurance. Not regime change in Venezuela.” When there are no warfare threats to the US, like the current situation in Venezuela, this raises questions whether war will break out among the nations. A phone call between the president and Maduro concluded with Trump giving the Venezuelan president an ultimatum to flee his country. It’s not clear what Trump would gain from deposing Maduro, but a resignation that the US can take responsibility and praise for would be an ideal distraction from the ongoing Epstein-Trump saga and the plummeting ratings of the Trump administration.