The Badenoch bounce: Why it isn’t enough

It’s been more than a year since Kemi Badenoch took leadership of the Conservative Party, and for most of her time at the helm of the Tories, she has faced persistent difficulties in asserting herself as a credible leader in waiting. With the conservatives having just suffered their biggest election defeat yet, the start of Badenoch’s term was set up with challenging circumstances; Badenoch was left to navigate a disheartened Conservative Party that was gravely threatened by the rapid rise of Reform.

Then, throughout her mandate, Badenoch hasn’t exactly enjoyed widespread public support. In October of this year, YouGov reported that 50% of Conservative Party members believed Badenoch shouldn’t lead their party into the next general election. When compared to other recent Tory leaders, Badenoch’s level of support from within her party seems insufficient for her to lead the Conservatives in the 2029 election.

It seems that the only party leader as unpopular as Kemi Badenoch was Liz Truss

Recent precedent underscores this difference. In May of 2024, nearing the end of his term and despite poor performances in public polls, Rishi Sunak was backed by 63% of Conservative Party members to remain as party leader. Similarly, even amidst Partygate and growing internal dissent, in June 2022, only 42% of party members reported that MPs should vote to remove Boris Johnson, compared to Badenoch’s 46%. It seems that the only party leader as unpopular as Kemi Badenoch was Liz Truss, the shortest-serving prime minister in the country’s history and a benchmark for poor leadership polling.

However, despite her slow start, Badenoch has somewhat managed to recover ground since October, albeit from a low base. A recent More in Common poll showed Badenoch’s approval rating to have risen to an all-time high of -14, placing her close to Nigel Farage’s -12 and Ed Davey’s -11, whilst Starmer posts a far lower -48.

Her strong performance at the annual Conservative conference was named by Tory insiders as one of the reasons for her revival

So what accounts for this shift? Tory insiders named her strong performance at the annual Conservative conference as one of the reasons for her revival. At the conference, Badenoch delivered a policy-centred speech, announcing a tax cut plan for England and Northern Ireland in an effort to boost fiscal credibility.

Ahead of the conference, speculation circulated that aspiring leader Robert Jenrick would challenge Badenoch’s standing in efforts to consolidate himself as an alternative. However, Jenrick ultimately expressed his support for Badenoch as leader, possibly

learning from Andy Burnham’s failed overt leadership bid in the 2015 Labour leadership contest that such manoeuvres can alienate party members, particularly when the party is experiencing internal difficulty. Additionally, Jenrick’s recent racist expression of disappointment about “not seeing another white face” in a part of Birmingham certainly weakened his position in becoming party leader.

“It has taken some time, but she has worked out how she wants to do opposition. We’re going into the new year in a much better place than we were a few months ago, let alone a year ago,” said a conservative MP who had been sceptical of Badenoch in previous months. Badenoch emerged from the conference with the confidence to challenge the Labour government on the Autumn Budget, delivering a brutal response to Rachel Reeves’ claims that she had kept all of her promises made the year prior. According to a conservative shadow minister, “It was the budget response that cut through everywhere. I kept going to events, and people would say, “Your Kemi is doing well.”

A large part of her recent success has come as a result of Keir Starmer’s remarkable talent in self-sabotage

The media has been calling it the “Badenoch Bounce”, and while it is true that her public approval rose significantly, a large part of her recent success has come as a result of Keir Starmer’s remarkable talent in self-sabotage. Considering the Labour government’s numerous missteps and its failure to drive a clear policy narrative, it would have been surprising if Badenoch hadn’t managed to capitalise on such a directionless opposition.

Conservatives still hold just 18% of the voter share – up just one percentage point since June

Even so, those describing this as a possible Conservative revival are overlooking a crucial aspect. Although Badenoch’s approval ratings have risen to all-time highs, the Conservatives still hold just 18% of the voter share – up just one percentage point since June. Ultimately, Badenoch may have steadied herself, but she has yet to demonstrate the spark required to lead a genuine Conservative revival. Modest polling improvements are not momentum, and confidence alone is not charisma. A party in need of reinvention cannot be revived by a leader whose appeal remains narrow and whose ceiling appears stubbornly low.