Plaid Cymru’s Caerphilly victory reminds us to be hopeful – in Wales, England, and beyond

Growing up in north-east England with an English mother and a Welsh father, often making the six-hour drive between Teesside and Maesteg for birthdays, Easters, or Christmases, the country has always been distant yet dear. As I’ve grown older, so too have the politics of Wales. 

To then discover a political party operating in Wales with a primary goal of bring the Welsh language back to the foreground of Welsh life in Plaid Cymru was inspiring, to say the least

One of the first, central issues that drew me into Wales’ political sphere was the issue of the Welsh language. For me, it was a nearby spectre: my dad knew some songs and phrases that he used around the house, but he was never truly a fluent Welsh speaker. Even the disparate phrases I remember from childhood have long left his everyday vocabulary, having spent so long in England. It has always felt slightly performative to care so much about a place I don’t live in, and a language I don’t speak, wishing I could while my Welsh cousins complained about the mandatory GCSE. Ironically, my early desire to learn Welsh led me to study languages at university – yet I still don’t know that one. 

To then discover a political party operating in Wales with a primary goal of bringing the Welsh language back to the foreground of Welsh life in Plaid Cymru was inspiring, to say the least. I’ve followed them for years now, trying to glean what crumbs of language I can from their bilingual publicity, and along the way, growing attached to their left-wing politics. 

Ultimately, I was very closely following the recent by-election in Caerphilly. Triggered by the unfortunate passing of Labour MS Hefin David, the election became a litmus test for the upcoming Welsh Senedd elections in May 2026. Indeed, Caerphilly became a key battleground between the far-right Reform UK and Plaid. 

For a staunchly left, pro-independence, and once-marginal party to win such a victory against the behemoth that mainstream media would have us believe Reform has become is groundbreaking.

After a fraught contest, which polls reported as a “neck and neck” race, Plaid’s Lindsay Whittle came out on top with 11% more of the vote share than Reform’s Llŷr Powell. That is no small margin: even combined with the Conservative vote share, Reform couldn’t have won. For a staunchly left, pro-independence, and once-marginal party to win such a victory against the behemoth that mainstream media would have us believe Reform has become is groundbreaking. On a personal, petty level, it was intensely satisfying to see the likes of Farage and his backers, confident in Reform’s “Welsh breakthrough”, proven so decisively wrong. Beyond schadenfreude, though, their defeat is symbolic. It shows that, no matter what the tabloids and papers scream from their front pages, Reform is not a shoe-in for the coming elections. They are just another party, and genuine politics like that of Plaid can defeat them. 

That reminder is needed more than ever. With the Green Party rising as a quasi-socialist tide sweeping up Labour’s alienated left, and Your Party’s messy build-up, fears are rife of a split in the left-wing vote paving the way for the right. Both sides clamour for the other to step down, citing fatalistic predictions of Reform’s victory, and fearing the worst.  

Amidst that, such a resounding defeat of Reform was a much-needed gust of fresh air. Caerphilly had been a Labour seat since 1918. In this election, they received a paltry 11% of the vote – the margin by which Reform lost. In one election, Plaid Cymru showed not just that Reform is fallible, but that the two-party system is finally breaking. The Tories were humiliated in 2024, and Labour’s time is running out. They have won every general election in Wales for the last century, and while one constituency can’t predict the fate of the entire nation, it suggests a new direction for Wales. One that is leaving behind Labour’s unionism that keeps Wales as a subsidiary to Westminster.  

I can’t feel anything except joy at the prospect of a Welsh-speaking, autonomous Wales, whether I belong there or not

In the face of an end to unionism’s grip on Wales, Reform will struggle more than ever. The rise of a nationalist party in Wales may, as it has in Scotland, signal the end of the acceptance of English hegemony in the UK. Regardless of your nationality – Welsh, English, Scottish, or otherwise – an end to one hegemony is a win for any leftist.  

Personally, it’s a complicated feeling to rejoice on behalf of a country I’m told I barely belong to, or to hope for its independence from my own. But I can’t feel anything except joy at the prospect of a Welsh-speaking, autonomous Wales, whether I belong there or not. 

Plaid Cymru’s victory in Caerphilly and Mamdani’s victory in New York are just a taste of what could be to come if we reject the fatalistic notion that Reform is inevitable

Outside of Caerphilly, Plaid is not the only group making waves: Your Party, should they ever organise themselves properly, are bringing real socialism into the mainstream, the Greens are bringing hopeful, joyous politics to the fight, and in America, democratic socialist Zohran Mamdani is mayor-elect of New York, expelling the neoliberal yoke from the city. There is more cause than ever to have hope that politics will finally turn to the good of the people. 

Plaid Cymru’s victory in Caerphilly and Mamdani’s victory in New York are just a taste of what could be to come if we reject the fatalistic notion that Reform is inevitable. It is clear that viable alternatives exist. Your Party, the Greens, and Plaid all have their own shortcomings, but with real organisation, and the eschewing of egos that demand to be the ‘right’ left-wing party, Reform and Farage’s vile goals for the UK stand no chance. The small victories now are just the first steps that show us what is possible – the next step is real action and collaboration for the good of all.