Mamdani shows the Democrats how to win – and how to lose

Zohran Mamdani, the new Mayor-elect of New York City, has something special. He’s a campaigning marvel who has mobilised social media in a way few politicians ever have, and in that sense, he is a trailblazer.

He’s also far more left-wing than the average Democrat, yet he defeated the more traditional party candidate, Andrew Cuomo, in both the primary and mayoral election proper. This separates him from the likes of Bernie Sanders and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, who have yet to achieve such victories within and outside the Democratic establishment. He marks something rare in US politics – a progressive who can win, even from the humblest of origins. For many, Mamdani can be summed up in one word: hope.

But Mamdani’s win wasn’t as numerically dominant as many expected, with the BBC reporting that Mamdani only defeated Cuomo by eight percentage points. If loose-cannon Republican candidate Curtis Sliwa had dropped out of the race, as many encouraged him to do, and most of those votes had gone to Cuomo, as many projected, Mamdani would have barely scraped by.

Calm, composed, and loyal to his principles, he makes a more than compelling hero for Democrats and adversary for Republicans

Moreover, NYC is a Democratic stronghold, far further left ideologically than the rest of America. Still, more traditional centre-left politics were extremely competitive, even when up against someone as talented as Mamdani and a leader as repugnant as Cuomo. Many assert that Mamdani should be the example for what the Democrats should become – “the city on the hill”, to borrow a Reagan quote. But that feels harder to believe the more you contextualise his victory in American politics.

Firstly, what should the Democrats learn from Mamdani? Campaigning style is one thing. Mamdani placed grassroots campaigning at the centre of his strategy, which worked wonders at mobilising a particularly youthful and energetic caucus of supporters. Second is the handling of the media, at which Mamdani is unrivalled. I’ve already mentioned his proficient use of social media, which powerfully combined personal likeability and humour with genuine policy discussion, but he’s also terrific in interviews. Calm, composed, and loyal to his principles, he makes a more than compelling hero for Democrats and adversary for Republicans. Of course, the GOP will need to heed these lessons too, unless they want to risk falling victim to them in the upcoming midterm elections, or the Presidential election in three years’ time.

It’s clear that Mamdani offers a lot, but it’s also apparent that there’s a lot he doesn’t. Say Mamdani, or someone similarly progressive, was the Democratic nominee for President in 2028. They would be far too left-wing to succeed in the crucial swing states that decide US elections, like the crucial seven which went for Trump in 2024. No doubt such a candidate would excel in the hardline Democrat states, such as New York, but that’s hardly a major accomplishment when NYC hasn’t backed a Republican for President in over a century. A candidate like Mamdani would likely do little more than excel in the popular vote, racking up copious votes from blue states while failing to win majorities in the all-important grey ones.

Spanberger is the eminent example that reasonable centrist politics can – and will – succeed, so long as it has the piss and vinegar to fight for it (especially if it learns from Mamdani’s astonishing campaigning)

If you want to debate the need to abolish the Electoral College, that’s fair, but when it comes to lessons for the Democratic Party heading into the next Presidential election, we have to work in the realm of political reality. Progressive candidates will probably succeed in future Congressional elections in hardline Democrat states, and Mamdani’s success hasn’t changed that fact. These candidates would have succeeded anyway, and just like the NYC Mayor-elect, they’d all be far too left-leaning for a country where communism is still a much-exploited fear, and everything left is communist, including Mamdani (apparently).

The Democrats don’t need to place progressives on their next ticket for the White House, and we’ve seen why. Just as Mamdani won his NYC mayoral race, so too did Abigail Spanberger win her race to become Virginia’s governor. Virginia is a far more ideologically balanced state than New York, yet Spanberger succeeded as a “pugnacious centrist” who’s willing to put ideology aside for outcomes. She rejects the rhetoric of the far-left, understanding that calls to defund the police, or claims that “violence is a social construct”, do little but alienate the majority. Spanberger is the eminent example that reasonable centrist politics can – and will – succeed, so long as it has the piss and vinegar to fight for it (especially if it learns from Mamdani’s astonishing campaigning).

Mamdani is a true talent in many ways, and it cannot be understated how impressive so much of his electoral strategy has been. He’s Obama-esque in the sense that he ought to redefine how to win an election, even if on a much smaller scale. But Democrats shouldn’t overreact and assume this progressivism is the new status quo, because this is America, and that simply isn’t true, no matter how much of the world hopes it is. Mamdani can teach US politics a lot, but there are as many lessons on what should be done as there are on what shouldn’t.