Cianan’s Column: GW13/14: Free hit frenzy and mid-week madness

Welcome to the first iteration of Cianan’s Column covering two gameweeks, as a result of GW13 ending and GW14 beginning within only a day of each other. Our esteemed Sport Editor will (quite rightly) mention the exorbitant wordcount, so let’s stop wasting time and get into it.

Firstly, GW13. My analysis will be very free-hit-centric, because this week is probably the best to deploy the chip. Most astute managers own several Arsenal or Chelsea assets, with both sides meeting at Stamford Bridge in GW13; further, they own numerous Crystal Palace and Manchester United players, with those sides meeting at Selhurst Park. Meanwhile, they’re lighter on Manchester City, Liverpool, and Aston Villa assets, who play Leeds (H), West Ham (A), and Wolves (H), respectively. There are no double game weeks pre-GW19, so you have to deploy it in a week with only one match per team, making any week a viable option. But with the imminent free transfer boost from AFCON, managers will play more aggressively with one-week punts and differential options then. Hence, the chance to do so right now, before those opportunities arise, spreads out the capacity for team fluidity. All of this amounts to one clear conclusion: there’s no time like the present to free hit – so we want maximum short-termism, and find the best eleven for this weekend and this weekend alone.

This leads on to the all-important follow-up question of who you should bring in, and Haaland has to be at the centre of all teams, free hit or not. He’s the obvious captaincy option this week, with the Norwegian remaining far and away the highest points scorer in FPL this season. City are at home, which is another boost, while their Yorkshire opposition are playing away, which significantly dampens their performance. Safe to say the Citizens’ number 9 is poised for a massive haul. It’s also worth taking on board a City defender, with the best options being Gvardiol, O’Reilly, or goalkeeper Donnarumma. Rotation is always a risk, so none of these are completely safe for gametime (aside maybe Donnarumma), but it’s even harder to recommend a midfielder because Pep roulette is simply that strong. So long as they get good minutes, a one-week punt on Foden or, to a lesser extent, Chekri or Doku could prove fruitful, however. Pick your poison, I suppose.

The other two teams I mentioned were Liverpool and Aston Villa. West Ham have been so poor this season, so from the Reds, you’d want attackers, likely Salah and/or Gakpo. While Liverpool are reeling after their 0-3 loss at home to Nottingham Forest last time out, that form will turn, and the Hammers’ poor defence is as good a time as any. You don’t necessarily need a defender, given Liverpool’s aforementioned defensive horror show last weekend, but Van Dijk as an aerial threat is still worth a thought.

Villa, on the other hand, play the worst team in the league – Wolves – and at home, too. You’ll want a defender, probably either Cash, Konsa, or Martinez between the sticks, and Rogers in midfield. Given his chronically poor start to the season, it’s hard to wholeheartedly recommend Watkins, but if you really want to go against the grain, there’s potential.

Another team worth looking at is Brentford, particularly their in-form striker Thiago, who has averaged 6.4 points over the past five games. Facing Burnley (H), who have one of, if not the, worst defence in the league, Brentford provide a valuable set of options for a one-week punt, including Schade or Ouattara in midfield and Collins or Van den Berg in defence. Free hitting allows managers to bring in a Brentford asset for the Burnley game, lose them for the subsequent Arsenal (A) match, and then bring them back in for their great run of fixtures from GW15 onwards. Given their volatile form, it might not be worth owning more than one of their assets on a permanent basis, and Thiago is without doubt the one for that slot (though I’m open to the inclusion of Schade for GW16 and 17). Those who currently own Chelsea’s Pedro should certainly watch this space, as following his GW14 game against Leeds (A), the quality of Chelsea’s fixtures dramatically weakens, providing a perfect transition point.

Continuing with the broader discussion, it’s hard to recommend buying Eze even after his 20-pointer in the North London Derby. If you want to bring him in, I can more than understand that, but minutes inconsistency is an issue that slightly more expensive assets like Saka just won’t face. FPL is subject to the law of averages, and there’s no reason lightning will strike the same spot twice – and if you were to bet where it’s most likely to hit next, you’d suggest it’s someone with greater minutes (and penalties, for that matter).

In general, the advice I’ve given across my columns this season has aged well. The analysis has been influenced by my own decision-making, of course, but I’m currently in the humble top 1.4% of managers, so it could certainly be worse. The biggest mistake I’ve made, however, was in the article for GW7 in which I remarked, “ignore Muñoz, he’s overpriced”. The Colombian is truly a revelation, and if you can afford him, he’s certainly worth his premium price point, even though he is now one yellow card from suspension. The GW14 fixture for Crystal Palace against Burnley (A) is certainly one to target, and so it’s worth holding onto your Eagles assets (especially if you can dodge their more mediocre fixture against Manchester United next gameweek). Though their fixtures do worsen somewhat after Burnley, they still offer great value for your squad, offering no particular ‘sell-period’ this entire season (though some matches, such as GW16 v City (H), offer a need for rotation).

Rapid recommendations

● If you haven’t used your triple captain chip yet, Haaland v Leeds (H) in GW13 may be the best time to deploy it before GW19.
● If you do triple-captain next gameweek, you can’t free hit. There’s a lot of discussion about free hitting in GW16, but you need a plan that works best for your team.
● So long as Semenyo is fit, he’s in, don’t buy, don’t sell territory. Bournemouth’s fixtures are more than passable.
● We’re unsure of Barnes’ minutes in the long term, so it’s hard to wholeheartedly recommend him. If Newcastle’s form turns following their victory over City, it’s worth considering their assets.
● Thinking post-GW14, we know Liverpool’s form will turn, eventually. The reigning champions cannot remain this utterly woeful forever, so what you want to do with their assets should be based on how quickly you think they’ll get back to normal.

The Boar standings

1st: Dwight Club (738) – managed by Cianan Sheekey
2nd: parths11 (715) – managed by Parth Malik
3rd: Ed City, No Pity (708) – managed by Edward Croisdale-Appleby