Cianan’s Column: GW12: Ready for the run-in?

By run-in, I mean the period from now until the 26th of March next year, wherein (excluding bouts of FA Cup action) we have no FPL breaks, alongside several mid-week gameweeks (including the upcoming GW14). So adorn your planning hats, for there’s a lot of football to think about heading during the festive period. Luckily, you’ve got me to help with those tough choices.

A big theme this week is injuries. Gabriel, Semenyo, Guehi, Kudus, Calafiori, and Fernández are the most owned players who are currently yellow-flagged. Firstly, all these assets have unique roads to recovery, and you should follow updates, particularly those given in upcoming press conferences, as closely as possible. Secondly, as mentioned, these are all highly owned assets. Hence, almost everyone is going to be faced with dilemmas, potentially disrupting plans for GW12 and beyond. FPL is a relative game in which you’re trying to beat everyone else, and thus, if everyone else is similarly hindered, no one is (excluding the odd-bods who somehow don’t own at least one of the listed players).

Only time will tell how we should react to the injuries of the most-owned assets, and a lot of it is duration-of-absence dependent. When we know this information, you have to assess whether it’s worth shouldering the burden of someone who won’t play for X amount of weeks. It’s easy to move someone like Kudus on, since he’s floundered since his 12-pointer against Leeds (A) in GW7, with the injury being the final nail in the coffin.

Another easier sell is Gabriel. Though not fully confirmed by Arsenal manager as of time-of-writing, it appears he may be out for a matter of months as opposed to a matter of weeks, and given the fixture-intensive nature of the run-in and his £6.6m cost, it’s relatively easy to recommend selling him. In terms of premium replacements, it’s worth considering other Arsenal defenders (Timber being the best of the lot), Van Dijk, given Liverpool’s strong upcoming fixture run, or Muñoz, who has an exceptional Wolves (A) fixture this week. The best cheap replacement is Richards, whom I sing the praises of practically every single week, but he grabbed an 8-pointer last time out while still only costing £4.5m, so it’s not hard to see why.

Other injured assets, like Semenyo, leave more room for debate. If he’s going to miss West Ham (H), entertain Mbuemo/Cunha, though holding is still a strong option. The former is probably the safer option short-term, though he will leave for AFCON before long, whereas the latter is very much a differential punt, with the Brazilian struggling to truly establish himself in the United side.

It’s hard to give much more generalised advice on the injury front, as these sorts of situations are very team-dependent, but on the whole, making moves at this point in time isn’t a bad call. Every manager is topped up to five free transfers for GW16, so to be limping toward that gameweek with very few in the bank isn’t a major issue, so long as you focus on maximising your weekly points haul. So for those, like myself, who dead-ended a striker (most bringing in Guiu) last week to afford Gunners talisman Saka (who netted a beautiful 12-pointer last gameweek), you should still be able to manage even with the newly-weakened squad depth.

Something else worth noting: most managers haven’t deployed their free-hit chip. With no double gameweeks in the first chip period, managers will have to deploy it on a single gameweek, and GW13 seems like the ideal week for it, given that most managers will have solid outfits on paper. Not only does this add another complexity to the question of whether you should sell injured assets, since they won’t be on your side next week, but it also raises the question of who makes up the best 11 for GW13. Based solely on fixtures, Manchester City, Brentford, Aston Villa, and Liverpool seem like the teams to target, as they play Leeds (H), Burnley (H), Wolves (H), and West Ham (A) respectively, but I’ll discuss this more next week.

Rapid recommendations

● I mentioned Saka earlier, but it’s surprising just how under the radar he’s remained. A serially talented, penalty-taking, DEFCON-achieving winger for the best team in the league, with only 17.5% ownership – what’s not to love?
● A lot is being made of City’s O’Reilly. Two words: Pep roulette.
● Szoboszlai is a tempting route into Liverpool’s attack, but he’s on four yellow cards (one away from suspension) and sometimes gets rotated to right-back, dampening his appeal.
● Pedro keeps getting returns, though Arsenal (H) in GW13 makes it feel like the train has left the station.
● Senesi hasn’t been stellar recently, but the fixtures are solid in the next three (West Ham (H), Sunderland (A), Everton (H)), and he’s top-tier for DEFCON.

The Boar standings

1st: Dwight Club (689) – managed by Cianan Sheekey
2nd: parths11 (675) – managed by Parth Malik
3rd: leif the door open (662) – managed by Hannah Guthrie