The death of Goliath: How the Conservatives lost their grip on British politics

It’s been over a year since the absolute chaos of the 2024 general election, in which the Conservative Party experienced its most significant defeat since 1906. What was once one of the most championed and successful political parties in the world has effectively dug its own grave. Reform UK and the Liberal Democrats are now feasting on the party’s remains, making it nearly impossible for the Tories to reimagine themselves. The Conservatives are not just in trouble: their failures have led to a terminal decline.

There will no longer be a clear space for moderate one-nation conservatism, but instead a toxic hellscape of hard-right populism.

This is not the first time the Tories have been in such a position, but the future of the party looks bleak. Sure, the Conservatives and other parties have spent years in the political wilderness before, and have survived – but the conditions today make it nearly impossible, certainly under the current leadership, for the party to return to its former glory.

The Conservatives are currently polling at a dismal 17%. They’re already behind Reform UK (27%) and Labour (20%), and it’s possible the Liberal Democrats and the Greens will soon overtake them

What planted the seeds of doom for the Conservatives was their inability to deliver on policy and maintain public trust. The austerity years of 2010-2019 – or, as then-Chancellor George Osborne called it, “fixing the roof whilst the sun is still shining” – proved to be an economic disaster for Britain. The idea that simply cutting government spending would reduce the deficit and increase confidence in the British economy was fundamentally flawed.

Brexit made the public infuriated with the Conservatives. Theresa May couldn’t secure any meaningful deal through Parliament. Boris Johnson may have got Brexit done, but failed to deliver on the promised ‘levelling up’ program for the North and resigned in disgrace over countless scandals. Liz Truss destroyed the party’s economic and leadership credibility, and Rishi Sunak presided over the collapsing infrastructure of schools, hospitals, and HS2, while also failing with the Rwanda Plan, inherited from his predecessors. All of this contributed to the public losing trust in the Conservatives’ ability to actually deliver.

The Conservatives are currently polling at a dismal 17%. They’re already behind Reform UK (27%) and Labour (20%), and it’s possible the Liberal Democrats and the Greens will soon overtake them. Additionally, half of the Tory members don’t believe that Kemi Badenoch should lead the party into the next election, even though 61% think she is doing a good job.

The results of the local elections in May also highlight the dire straits the Tories are in, losing 674 councillors and 16 councils

The current leadership of the Conservatives is unsustainable for any form of recovery. It’s undeniable that Kemi Badenoch has been dealt a bad hand since becoming leader. She’s received the Conservatives’ worst-ever electoral result since 1906, a legacy of failure from the 14-year Conservative government, and a party that’s been chewed on by the Liberal Democrats and Reform UK.

Yet her leadership has been completely futile in the efforts to revitalise the party. Her leadership cost her numerous defections, from former Cabinet members to councillors. Membership under Badenoch is falling, with the last reported figure being 123,000 in July 2025, compared to Reform UK’s 260,000 and the Green Party’s more than 100,000 – both of which are increasing consistently.

The results of the local elections in May also highlight the dire straits the Tories are in, losing 674 councillors and 16 councils. The Spectator plugged the statistics of the local election results into a swingometer (designed to translate results to a nationwide result), which suggested that if a general election were held tomorrow, the Tory party would win only 12 seats out of 650. 12.

It’s reached the point where even former Chancellor Jeremy Hunt has said that “the Conservatives cannot rule out becoming extinct.”

Reform UK has effectively replaced the Conservatives as the main right-wing party in British politics

The elephant in the room also needs to be addressed – Nigel Farage.

Farage is the pre-eminent populist politician in the UK, and that is what makes him so alluring to the British public. He has been able to attract millions based on his personal character – a chimney-smoking, beer-drinking lad who ‘says it how it is’ despite being an upper-middle-class former stockbroker who makes millions a year from several different ventures. Farage has been able to appeal to a broad range of voters with populist economic policies and his anti-immigration rhetoric. He’s been able to spin the Conservatives’ failure to deliver policies, from Brexit to the Rwanda Scheme, to suit his interests and gain more Conservative voters’ support.

Polling shows that 37% of 2024 Conservative voters have switched to Reform. Farage has capitalised on the wave of anger over immigration and poor living conditions resulting from the financial crash and austerity.

Reform has effectively replaced the Conservatives as the principal right-wing party in British politics. The conversation in the media today is about Labour against Reform, the Greens against Labour and Reform, and the Liberal Democrats against Labour and Reform.

The party is attempting to jump on the right-wing populist bandwagon, trying to ride on the coattails of Reform UK’s success – yet it is failing miserably

Still, there is little conversation about the Conservatives in a similar context. Instead, the party is attempting to jump on the right-wing populist bandwagon, trying to ride on the coattails of Reform UK’s success, yet it is failing miserably. This is especially evident in arbitrary policy announcements such as scrapping stamp duty, cutting civil service jobs, reducing working-age welfare by at least £23bn and finding general savings of £47bn. This comes alongside Robert Jenrick’s racist rhetoric of “not seeing a white face” in Handsworth, and his attempts to undermine the judiciary by ranting about “activist judges.”

Farage has repeatedly ruled out cooperation with the Conservative Party, which could prove crucial for the Conservatives’ survival, especially in the short term. Reform UK is polling at 27%, which is 10 points higher than the Conservatives. This is high enough in many constituencies to split the right-wing vote or even completely remove the Tories from many seats entirely. Add to this the fact that the Liberal Democrats have been able to win over liberal-conservative, middle-class Southerners successfully, and you have a recipe for absolute disaster for the Conservatives in the next election.

The Tories are over, done, doomed. They’ve had their go, and now it’s time we gave them a rest.