A ceasefire is agreed, but what’s Trump’s real plan for Gaza?

US President Donald Trump once again made headlines with another grand announcement on Monday 29 September that felt like a strange mix of campaign rally theatrics and a sales pitch. This time, Mr ‘Big, Beautiful’ Deals showed off a 20-point “peace plan” for Gaza from the White House, beside an approvingly nodding Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Now, Trump claims that Israel and Hamas have signed off on the “first phase” of the plan.

The West, of course, has rushed to celebrate what it helped manufacture and what it has long financed. But the only people who deserve this moment of relief are the Palestinians, however brief that moment may be, as they at last receive life-saving aid after Israel’s illegal blockade and deliberate suppression. For everyone else watching, it’s worth remembering that a ceasefire is not liberation. It is a pause to the bloodshed – but it is not a resolution. So, what exactly is in this so-called “peace plan”, and why is the West so obsessed with point-based systems? Woodrow Wilson would be proud.

Allegedly, Trump’s latest master plan, drafted with the same performative flair as his tweets and previous tariff fiascos, will “end the war in Gaza”. The reality – a colonial reboot repackaged as mediation, a spectacle endorsed by world leaders observing from afar. The terms? Israel would withdraw from Gaza to an agreed line within 72 hours if Hamas releases its 20 Israeli captives. In return, Israel would release 250 Palestinians serving life sentences and 1,700 Gazans detained after October 7. At least, that’s what the document reads. Sounds promising, right? But here’s the unsurprising twist: Gaza must be completely demilitarised, Hamas disarmed, and those who comply will be granted “safe passage” and shipped off to ‘receiving countries’.

Israel will continue to station its occupational forces around the Strip, reserving unilateral power to re-enter whenever it sees fit

In his plan, Trump assures the world that Israel “will not occupy or annex Gaza” and that “no one will be forced to leave”. Coming from a man obsessed with building walls and travel bans, it’s hardly reassuring, and not all that different from Netanyahu’s own fixation on deflection and victimhood. We can only hope he follows through, but what makes this time any different?

Hidden lines down is a looming phrase, a “security perimeter” around Gaza in case of a “resurgent terror threat”, which will remain in place until further notice. Translation: Israel will continue to station its occupational forces around the Strip, reserving unilateral power to re-enter whenever it sees fit. It’s the equivalent of saying you’ve broken up with your ex but will still keep tabs on their location for ‘safety reasons’. In a video shared on X, shortly after Trump’s speech, Netanyahu once again reiterated that Israel would “forcibly resist” a Palestinian state, a flashing bright red flag that the plan breezes right past.

Then comes Trump’s new international council, the “Board of Peace”. Naturally, he’ll chair it himself, because what’s a Trump deal without some self-promo? His only confirmed partner so far? Tony Blair. Yes, that Tony Blair, fellow war criminal, best known for helping to invade Iraq in 2003.

Trump’s plan doesn’t contain a single demand for Israel to demilitarise, relinquish control of Gaza’s borders, airspace and sea, or dismantle settlements

To complete the déjà vu, Trump promises to ‘rebuild’ Gaza. So much for America First: Washington only seems to love redevelopment when it’s abroad. Governance is then supposed to be handed over to a ‘reformed’ Palestinian Authority, though he forgets to mention when, or if, that will actually happen.

The details of this very neoliberal plan, in simple terms, outsources the occupation to a foreign administration. Not a single Palestinian was invited to the negotiation table, and there’s not a single mention of what the course to Palestinian self-determination would look like. It makes you wonder who this plan really serves, since, aside from the bare minimum – the fundamental right to humanitarian aid – the tangible benefits for Palestinians are close to non-existent.

Unsurprisingly, Trump remains the star of his own show. Among his 20 points is a ‘Trump Economic Development Plan‘, because nothing says conflict resolution like a branding opportunity. The concept is eerily reminiscent of the earlier ‘Gaza Riviera‘ scheme, developed in part through Blair’s own foundation. The difference this time? Palestinians won’t be forced to leave for Trump’s hotel resorts to be built, they’ll just be built upon the mass graves of Palestinians.

Just weeks ago, a United Nations inquiry found that Israel’s military action in Gaza met the threshold for genocide. Yet Trump’s plan doesn’t contain a single demand for Israel to demilitarise, relinquish control of Gaza’s borders, airspace and sea, or dismantle settlements. Meanwhile, the Palestinians are being demanded to hand over every last weapon and trust the process, left defenceless against one of the world’s most powerful militaries, a colonial state with a dark legacy of violating agreements with its neighbours. Israel retains its full arsenal, and, surprise, surprise, comes out on top.

Trump isn’t making peace. He’s making a pitch – selling occupation as partnership, and rebranding colonisation as a development opportunity

Behind all the press conference theatrics and Trump-style diplomatic pleasantries is an ultimatum that cements Western control while sidelining Palestinians in the discussion of their own future. The United States and Israel simply rewrite the terms of occupation, slap a “peace” label on it, and call it success. Palestinians, stripped of their weapons, sovereignty, and voice, are left to navigate a deal that was never designed with their interests in mind.

The agreement has been reached, but maintaining it will be the real challenge. Palestinian self-determination appears only at the very end of the plan, and only if the reforms are “faithfully carried out“. Of course, Israel can talk about faithfulness, after committing over 1,000 violations of the previous ceasefire agreement earlier this year. Trump and Netanyahu only need to wheel out this plan a few months from now, or once the hostages are released, to claim that Palestinians failed to follow through ‘faithfully,’ and their hopes for sovereignty will disappear once again, along with everything else that already has. Trump isn’t making peace. He’s making a pitch – selling occupation as partnership, and rebranding colonisation as a development opportunity.

What does the road to Palestinian sovereignty and statehood look like? All that’s left is a sea of martyrs, and a remaining Palestinian people with trust issues, celebrating that tonight they can finally sleep safely

For over a century, Palestinians have been denied full sovereignty over their own land. From Balfour to Versailles, to Oslo, to Trump’s Board of Peace, every British and US-led peace agreement has been occupation under new management. Are Arab and Muslim leaders really overjoyed by Trump’s terms? Are they content to live under the American-Israeli boot, or are they simply desperate to end a genocide, to prevent the further starvation and bloodshed in Gaza by any means necessary? Their joint statement suggests it’s the latter, despite their cautiously endorsing the plan.

Yet the lack of details is worrying. There remains the question of who will make up the mysterious International Stabilisation Force intended to “offer the assurance Israel needs to withdraw” from Gaza? Who will finance Gaza’s reconstruction and revitalisation? What are the timelines? And most importantly, what does the road to Palestinian sovereignty and statehood look like? All that’s left is a sea of martyrs, and a remaining Palestinian people with trust issues, celebrating that tonight they can finally sleep safely, not waking up beneath the rubble of their own homes the next day. Let them have this moment. After seven months of atrocities, it is a step in the right direction.