Cianan’s Column: International break is over – here’s how to navigate the return of FPL

Do not fret, folks: the international break is over, and we are free. Watching international football is riveting during tournaments, but when qualifiers interrupt a weekend of Premier League football? Frustrating, though unavoidable. With this glorious return comes the return of FPL, so it’s time to delve back into some analysis ahead of GW4.

Before diving into specific player selections, let’s examine broader strategy, now that we have three gameweeks worth of information to inform our decisions. Firstly, ‘big at the back’ is here. The implementation of DEFCON points this season provides defenders, particularly central defenders, another avenue to points. Consistent minutes, clean sheets, goal threat, bonus points – and DEFCON make these assets more valuable than ever. Just look at Guehi’s 15-pointer last week as a perfect example; if there has ever been a time to invest heavily in defence, it’s now. That doesn’t mean you need to overload your team the best premium defensive assets (Cucurella, Van Dijk, Porro, Muñoz, Tarkowski, etc.), but it’s wise to ensure a strong, rotatable set of expensive and mid-priced defensive assets (the best of which being Guehi, mentioned earlier, and his Palace compatriots Lacroix/Richards, as well as Van De Ven, Senesi, and based on solely upcoming fixtures, Forest and Villa’s £5.0-£4.5 million options, such as Williams or Konsa).

Secondly, we need to talk about chip strategy. In FPL this year, managers receive two of every chip, one wildcard, bench boost, triple captain, and free hit before GW19, and one after. Additionally, managers are gifted five free transfers in GW16 ahead of the AFCON. Hence, chips need to be deployed sooner rather than later, particularly the wildcard, as we receive a soft wildcard in GW16 in the form of the AFCON transfers. Bench boost, triple captain, and free hit are also typically saved for double gameweeks toward the end of the season, but as we receive one of each prior, these chips are, for the first time, relevant pre-Christmas. Fortune favours the bold, so assess your moves wisely, but courageously.

Finally, hits: the process of taking a point penalty to make additional transfers. One here and there is fine, but these add up over the course of the season. Remember, even if there is an immediate gain in terms of fixture potential, the point scoring of the transferred-in asset should be viewed with a minus 4 applied. Sometimes it’s better to play weaker assets to avoid an unnecessary hit. Transfers can always be tempting, but remember: FPL is a marathon, not a sprint.

Now, onto player discussion. Crystal Palace assets are worth targeting, and Mateta is a prime target. He is in only 9.3% of teams and takes penalties, priming him for a haul against Sunderland (H). Sarr’s injury is a real kick in the teeth, as he is probably the most valuable mid-priced midfielder due to his attacking prowess and impressive underlying data. Wait until we know the extent of his injury before deciding whether to hold or sell – if the injury is short-term, he may be worth keeping hold of.

In terms of replacements, Semenyo is flying high in terms of transfers in as the second most bought player this gameweek, and it’s easy to see why. He’s averaging 7.7 points per game so far this season, and Bournemouth’s promising fixture run, which sees them face four beatable teams at home and newly-promoted Leeds (A) in their next five matches, makes the winger an electric prospect. It’s not hard to recommend him; however, bear in mind the fairly expensive cost of £7.4 million, which could hinder future moves.

Grealish is the only midfielder who beats Semenyo for transfer in, the result of the hype surrounding Everton’s new talisman’s four assists in three games. Obviously, there is potential for this to continue; however, if I were to choose, I’d lean towards Ndiaye. The Senegalese winger hasn’t been significantly behind Grealish in terms of points, despite not being overly involved in Everton’s play thus far. Plus, he is the Toffees’ designated penalty taker and has a lower price point. Still, both are great selections.

Other replacements, such as Spurs’ new signings of Simons and Kudus, who face West Ham (A), Brighton’s Rutter and Minteh, and Fulham’s King, have potential but also face potential risks to their minutes. Tottenham have made a solid start to the season, and thus their options are the most appealing of this bunch, but differentials can always offer a unique spark to trigger a green arrow. As I’ve already said, fortune favours the bold.

Rapid recommendations

• Avoid Liverpool’s new striker, Isak. He isn’t fully match-fit and probably won’t start against Burnley (A) or Everton (H). Hold Ekitiké and Gakpo for now, as their fixtures are superb. Their future viability will be determined by who gets minutes when Isak is fit.
• Hold Forest assets! They have Burnley (A) in GW5 and Sunderland (H) in GW6.
• Pedro continues to excel for Chelsea. His high ownership makes him hard to ignore. Look to transfer him in when you can.
• Gyökeres is an excellent option from GW7, when Arsenal’s fixtures turn. He is, however, not essential for GW4, despite the perplexing number of managers jumping to sign him.
• Finally, Fernandes produced a haul last week. Fortunate in how it came about, but owners deserved a rub off the green. His value remains.

The Boar standings

1st: Ed City, No Pity (192) – managed by Edward Croisdale-Appleby
2nd: leif the door open (181) – managed by Hannah Guthrie
3rd: McMessi Menaces (180) – managed by Lex Gillard