Travel’s changing trends

As we head into summer this year, travellers across the world look to explore tropical destinations, experience new things, and take a step back to relax. This is big business, with the tourism industry worth over $2 trillion in 2024. 

Every year, summer surges mean jobs, millions travelling across borders, and massive flows of cash and goods. As a result, it is fuel for global and local economies. However, with changing geopolitics, a shift to de-globalisation, and rising economic pressures, the entire landscape is moving, and vacationers are picking new destinations. 

Travel reaches into every sector: hospitality, transport, agriculture and retail, which is why it is such a sought-after industry for a nation to develop. Some nations depend on tourism; for example, tourism accounts for a substantial 13% of total Greek GDP. Summer is the high season for travel, as it coincides with warm weather and school holidays, meaning most economic benefits are felt during these times. 

Climate change is going to change tourism patterns

However, for the US, this summer is looking to be a low point, with it expecting to miss out on billions of dollars. The Trump administration’s deportations, border detentions and high-profile diplomatic arguments are making the US a less attractive place for holidays. Global disputes over tariffs, the Ukraine conflict, and Trump’s questioning of Greenland’s sovereignty have seen tourism decline. The industry has already seen a decline, with 11.6% fewer overseas visitors in March. This is set to only get worse in the coming months.  

One of the largest sources of tourism for the US is from Canada. However, Canadians are outraged by President Trump’s rhetoric about making Canada the ‘51st State of America’.  It has triggered a strong wave of national pride in the country, many of whom are now buying Canadian-produced goods, selling their Florida holiday homes and choosing to vacation elsewhere. Canadians recently voted in the anti-Trump Liberal Party for a historic fourth term. Furthermore, Canada’s major airlines have already reduced flights to the US due to a significant drop in bookings, while car visits fell by 32% in March.  

It is clear that fewer people will travel abroad for their holidays this summer

Geopolitical disputes are not the only factor influencing global tourism. The influence of climate change is affecting key destinations. Rising global temperatures have led to increasingly severe heatwaves, wildfires, floods and tropical storms, which are directly damaging infrastructure like roads, airports, hotels and food supplies. All of these are essential to facilitate tourism. Beyond the physical destruction, these climate hazards are also changing perceptions – destinations previously popular now seem increasingly unsafe. For example, regions in the Mediterranean have seen a surge of wildfires during peak tourist season, prompting evacuations. Similarly, great iconic experiences, such as the Great Barrier Reef, are being destroyed by a more acidic ocean. Travellers may look to other destinations to ensure their travel plans go unhindered. In the long term, climate change is going to change tourism patterns. 

Wealthy nations are also grappling with increasing economic pressure. High inflation and stagnant wages are leaving UK citizens with less flexibility and disposable income for holidays. International travel has become increasingly unaffordable, and people may look to travel on a budget-friendly domestic holiday. While this trend may disappoint holidaymakers seeking international experiences, it carries potential economic benefits. Increased domestic tourism keeps consumer spending within the UK, which may stimulate jobs and support regional economic growth, rather than a financial outflow to other nations. 

While the full effects of geopolitical disputes, climate change, and the current economic atmosphere remain to be seen, it is clear that fewer people will travel abroad for their holidays this summer. Tourism will likely morph into a more regionalised, environmentally friendly, and politically sensitive industry.