Our home and sacred land: A look at the Canadian election

In light of a staunch anti-Trump sentiment within Canada, the nation’s conservative party leader Pierre Poilievre has moved to quickly backtrack and reframe many of his policies. The shift is part of Poilievre’s attempt to close a 25-point lead between himself and the prevailing Liberal party leader Prime Minister Mark Carney.

In a short time span, Carney has overtaken Poilievre’s initial lead in the polls and essentially reframed Canada’s political sentiment

Since assuming office on March 14, Prime Minister Carney has capitalised on an important factor: timing. Carney has leveraged Canadian’s frustrations with current American rhetoric, setting himself in opposition to the nationalist and imperialist sentiment of Donald Trump, who has repeatedly called for Canada to become America’s 51st state.

In a short time span, Carney has overtaken Poilievre’s initial lead in the polls and essentially reframed Canada’s political sentiment. The nation’s distaste of Trump’s trade policy and the American president’s personal insults toward the nation have greatly played into Prime Minister Carney’s favour.

Both Carney and Poilievre have expressed definitive stances over Trump’s implementation of tariffs on Canada. Polls show that the current Prime Minister has a higher approval rating in terms of his strong ability to handle the economy. As a former governor of both the Bank of Canada and the Bank of England between 2008-2020, economics is an area in which Prime Minister Carney has definitive expertise.

On March 4th, the US imposed a 25% tariff on all goods coming from Canada. This has been maintained in April, irrespective of the global tariffs that Trump put into effect on April 2nd and rescinded a week later. In response, Canada has imposed a retaliatory 25% tariff on all goods coming from the US, a valuation of around 30 billion Canadian Dollars.“The stakes for Canada’s economic future have never been higher,” said Carney.

In response to rapid changes in events since President Trump assumed office on January 20th of this year, Poilievre has attempted to build more distance between himself and the president. The conservative leader’s re-emphasis on the campaign trail of domestic issues – including greater tax cuts, energy independence and more affordable housing – are designed to move away from perceived associations to the president.

“I’m a strong leader, a tough guy to deal with. I’m firm in my convictions, and I’ll always put Canada first” said Poilievre this week, arguing that he would be comfortable confronting President Trump in order to promote the interests of the Canadian people.

Last year, Canada’s Conservative Party monthly campaign spending reached a height of $329,100 on Meta alone

Poilievre has risen in Canadian politics with a populist strategy centred around a highly nuanced social media campaign to engender beliefs about Canadian nationalism and pride. The strategy has been likened to President Trump’s employment of social media in the 2024 election.

Last year, Canada’s Conservative Party monthly campaign spending reached a height of $329,100 on Meta alone. This budget has allowed Poilievre to dramatically expand his reach and engage directly with the Canadian public on campaign issues.

The Conservative party held a 25-point lead for most of the past three years. They are now seeing that lead dissipate as the liberal party regained all the ground they had lost. A new sense of Canadian national identity has coalesced around a nation disaffected by Donald Trump’s will to absorb Canada as a 51st state and punitive tariff policy, currently set at 25% on imports to the United States.

It has been difficult for Polievre to effectively distance himself from policies that the Canadian people associate with America, given his continuing employment of similar stylistic elements to the America First traits embodied by the Trump campaign last year

Poilievre’s narrative of a tax-burdened Canada needing to maintain its sovereignty goes up against the US president’s will to weaken the country. However, many of Poilievre’s supporters find a lot of agreement with President Trump. This contradiction has made the Conservative leader’s ability to manoeuvre much more challenging.

It has been difficult for Polievre to effectively distance himself from policies that the Canadian people associate with America, given his continuing employment of similar stylistic elements to the America First traits embodied by the Trump campaign last year. The same attributes that had shored up his political ascension of the past 2 years are now causing the dimming of his political spotlight.

As it stands mid-April, Carney’s approval rating is 48%, with Poilievre trailing with an approval rating of around 39%. The loyalty to Carney has flagged slightly, with a fatigue that stemmed from his association with former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. Carney’s enthusiasm and willingness to resist Trump’s threats and rhetoric continue to be politically advantageous.

A poll put out by Ipsos, a multinational market research and consulting firm, suggested that 48% of people thought that Prime Minister Carney would be the best person to navigate the administrative challenges that a second Trump administration would impose. 43% of respondents in the same poll thought that Carney would be most likely to accept Trump’s demands.

In the final phase of the campaign, the contest will be closely fought. Prime Minister Carney has called the election for April 28th, giving him a window of time where he will likely operate with increased popularity and is less likely to be contested.

With both Trump’s rhetoric mobilising the Canadian population into a state of political engagement, both Carney and Poilievre are now fighting to define their stance on America

There is a possible outcome where no party will be able to attain the 172 seats needed in the Canadian Parliament to form a majority. In this instance, either the Liberal party or the Conservative party will need to form a coalition in order to have enough votes to govern.

The relationship between the United States and Canada has become the central issue in this election. Both parties are navigating their own stance around the fraught, ever-changing political decision-making of their neighbours to the South. With Trump’s rhetoric mobilising the Canadian population into a state of political engagement, both Carney and Poilievre are now fighting to define their stance on America.