International students: Is the golden goose flying away?

The United Kingdom has a longstanding reputation for having a world-class higher education system. Boasting two of the world’s oldest universities, which regularly top international rankings, alongside the prestigious Russell Group – Warwick among them – the UK is a top destination for students studying abroad. Yet, despite this, there has been a marked decline in the number of students arriving here, and universities are becoming increasingly concerned. What is behind this downward trend?

Previous government policy certainly played a part. As net migration figures reached a record high in 2022, cracking down on international students – the largest cohort of non-EU migrants – was a key goal for the then-Conservative Government under PM Rishi Sunak. Ministers like Home Secretary Suella Braverman bemoaned that students’ dependents were “piggybacking” off their guarantors’ student visas and that many people were coming in to study “substandard courses”. One countermeasure introduced in May 2023 restricted international students’ ability to bring in dependents to only those on postgraduate research-led courses. Even after Braverman was sacked that November, Sunak’s new cabinet sharply increased the Skilled Worker visa’s minimum salary threshold from £26,200 to £38,700. Moreover, Sunak placed the Graduate Visa, which allows graduates two years (or three years for PhD holders) to live and work in the UK, as “under review” by the Migration Advisory Committee. It is, therefore, unsurprising that student visa applications fell by 14% between 2023 and 2024.

New EU students’ enrollment fell from 66,680 to 31,000 – a plunge of 53% from the previous year, with many choosing EU universities instead

I was part of that cohort of non-EU students in 2022. I’d already grown to ignore the increasingly mainstream Huntingtonian rhetoric around migration, of dog-whistles around not all cultures being equally valid or cabals of Muslims, even born-and-bred British citizens like Sadiq Khan, conspiring to introduce “Shakira law”. The 2023 restrictions, however, put a lot of practical uncertainty into the equation: it was only until 2019 that non-EU international students had to leave the UK after 4 months of graduation if they couldn’t get a work visa – so restoring that limit wasn’t exactly far-fetched. If that were to happen, it would be difficult to get a skilled worker visa, as not many employers would pay this much for any fresh graduate, let alone also need to sponsor their stay. If students like me, who were already in the UK and were having these doubts, I’m not surprised that some prospective applicants decided to reconsider.

For EU students, Brexit also played a major role. Starting from the academic year 2021-2022, EU students have had to abide by the same rules as non-EU students, such as paying higher tuition fees, needing student visas, and being unable to access public finances. Consequently, new EU students’ enrollment fell from 66,680 to 31,000 – a plunge of 53% from the previous year, with many choosing EU universities instead. For example, that same year, the Netherlands hit a record high of international students, 72% of whom came from fellow EU members, attracted by free movement into the country and lower fees. Even before Brexit, European universities intensified their efforts to attract international students, with many offering their courses in English to reduce language barriers.

Some universities are already starting to buckle under the pressure. The University of York, for example, is suffering with a £24 million deficit … causing it to ease its entry requirements specifically for international students in all courses to woo them back

The main consequence of the drop in international students is financial trouble for UK universities, as many have become increasingly cash-strapped as a result. International students pay double or even triple the fees of Home students (currently capped at £9,250 but will increase to £9,535 in April), on whom universities make a loss of £2,500 per student annually. Consequently, many UK universities rely on international student fees to make up for this loss – the Russell Group estimates that international fees alone made up 23% of its members’ total income in 2021 and 2022. This dependence is also reflected when examining the international fees’ share of all UK universities’ total income, estimated at 22% in the years 22-23. Rising inflation and the end of EU funding towards UK universities following Brexit, which previously totalled an average of £800 million a year between 2010 and 2020, have only worsened this reliance on international fees.

Some universities are already starting to buckle under the pressure. The University of York, for example, is suffering with a £24 million deficit amidst a 16% fall in international student enrollment, causing it to ease its entry requirements specifically for international students in all courses to woo them back. Some universities like Cardiff have gone even further, announcing 400 full-time job layoffs, as well as closing entire programmes like theology and merging others into larger departments to address a £32.9 million deficit worsened by falling international student numbers. This severe dependence on international students also leaves UK universities vulnerable to external geopolitical circumstances: diplomatic tensions between the UK and China, for example, could make it difficult for Chinese students to get student visas. This would be catastrophic to the UK higher education sector, as Chinese students contribute £2.3 billion in tuition fees and comprise about a quarter of the international student population.

With many universities on the brink, it’s unsurprising that the Labour government promised to “welcome international students” soon after their election, and, indeed, this conciliatory rhetoric seems to have been welcomed by prospective students. However, migration remains a hotly polarising issue in British politics; tellingly, while the Government has committed to maintaining the graduate visa, they’ve kept the 2023 rules on dependents in place. It remains to be seen whether the new Government can reverse the decline in international student arrivals.