A new Lowe: The fallout from the Farage-Lowe row, part two

What difference does all this make to Nigel Farage, the Reform Party, and UK politics more generally? On the surface of it, not much. As I mentioned earlier, very few people even know who Mr Lowe is, and most Reform supporters have a higher regard for Farage. In short, public opinion, at least amongst Reform voters, is unlikely to shift regarding the Reform leader. Large swathes of the population still see Farage as an outsider, a man of the people, and someone who speaks his mind, making him an attractive political figure.

However, there are potential pitfalls behind the scenes for Reform. Whilst most of the public don’t care much for Lowe, he is (or should I say was?) an influential figure within the party. He made up 46% of Reform’s parliamentary output – including written questions, debate contributions, and speeches – according to  Christian Calgie of the Express.

Farage’s fear may be that Lowe goes off and joins a coalition of other disgruntled right-wingers to protest him. Perhaps a group bankrolled by Elon Musk

It is, therefore, notable that since Farage suspended Lowe, 12 interim chairs of Reform constituency branches have resigned, including three key figures in Lowe’s own Norfolk branch. This could undermine Reform’s council election efforts in several key areas. It was striking that a poll of Telegraph readers suggested that 40% of them thought the row could destroy Reform. This shows the outsized influence that Mr Lowe has in the ‘chattering classes’ of the right.

Farage’s fear may be that Lowe goes off and joins a coalition of other disgruntled right-wingers to protest him. Perhaps a group bankrolled by Elon Musk (who sees Farage as a sell-out), including figures such as the English Democrats’ Catharine Blaiklock, former leader of UKIP, and Ben Habib, who was Farage’s former Deputy Leader of Reform. This would present a real challenge to Reform and finally provide a political home for those who know that Farage is just an establishment moderate and not a true supporter of the right.

And yet the political narratives have already moved on, and the public eye didn’t stay very long on the Lowe debacle anyway. Focus will shift to the May local elections, in which Reform will likely make gains, and the Runcorn and Helsby by-election, where former Labour MP Mike Amesbury was suspended for punching a constituent outside the pub. At least he was ‘active in the community’, right? Reform will probably either win this by-election or come close second, a story which will thrill journalists for at least 48 hours, until they realise that this was exactly what everyone expected.

Reform may have another MP and, moving into next year, will be in a pretty strong position for the Scottish and Welsh elections (likely coming second to Labour in the Welsh Senedd). Only time will tell what will happen in the next British General Election – there are so many moving parts, and we are still very far out. In the meantime, we can sit back with our popcorn and watch the fireworks between Farage and Lowe.