Tick… Tick… Boom? Why the Doomsday Clock is no mere scare tactic

If you saw 2023’s Oppenheimer, you’ll know that, towards the end of his life, the pork pie hat-sporting physicist was consumed with existential dread. Oppie was haunted by a feeling of responsibility for unleashing a nuclear ‘chain reaction’ upon humanity – one which could prove apocalyptic. According to scientists, 2025 is the closest we’ve ever been to such an outcome since the conception of nuclear weapons, with several more contemporary problems increasing the possibility.   

The Doomsday Clock, created in 1947 by the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists (BAS, itself formed by Oppenheimer, Einstein and other Chicago-based scientists involved in the Manhattan Project), is a metaphorical projection of how close to annihilation we really are, with the minute hand moved closer to or further away from midnight according to the worsening or lessening of global tensions.  

In shifting our figurative ‘doomsday’ minimally closer, the scientific community sends a stern warning to world leaders of the consequences of diplomatic carelessness and technological negligence

Introduced at seven minutes to midnight, the Clock was first moved forward in 1949, when the Soviet Union tested its first nuclear weapons. Since then, the trend has more or less been an ominous ticking towards zero. There was one notable exception in 1991, when the USSR and the USA signed the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty, agreeing to cut down their nuclear arsenals. This rewound the Clock back to 17 minutes to midnight. 

This January, the Clock jolted a second closer to midnight, but this miniscule change (89 seconds to midnight as opposed to 90 seconds in 2023), is not insignificant. By shifting our figurative ‘doomsday’ minimally closer, the scientific community sends a stern warning to world leaders of the consequences of diplomatic carelessness and technological negligence. As a morbid symbol of a possible wipeout of human life, the Doomsday Clock is no laughing matter. Rather, it should be a stimulant for conversation in international government. “Reflecting on these life-and-death issues and starting a dialogue,” said Daniel Holz, Chair of the BAS’ Science and Security Board, “are the first steps to turning back the Clock and moving away from midnight.” 

The Russia-Ukraine war could turn nuclear at any moment

Nor is the Clock intended to be a scare tactic. The BAS amalgamates several analytics to determine where the minute hand should be placed, making the updated symbol reflective of the many global crises affecting us in tandem. For instance, the Russia-Ukraine war could turn nuclear at any moment, particularly with Russia’s withdrawal from weapons-limitation and test-banning treaties. The rise in confrontational rhetoric and international tensions only brings closer the visions of nuclear holocaust foreseen by Oppenheimer, especially when compounded with a severe escalation in disinformation as a political tool. BAS member Herb Lin points to this “ever-increasing dysfunction in the world’s information ecosystem”, which is hampering possible cooperation on an intergovernmental level. 

In a post-COVID world, the unpredictability of pandemics is now more widely understood, while the proliferation of biological weapons programs – now a domain associated with terrorism – poses the risk of a different kind of uncontainable pathogenic spread. The exponential growth of artificial intelligence in our world of technocrats is also a dilemma to be considered. Should AI come to be integrated into weapons systems, there is no knowing what catastrophe might ensue. We are indeed “perilously close to the precipice”, as the BAS puts it. 

The hellish fires in Los Angeles earlier were visual proof (if needed) of this precipice’s proximity

The hellish fires in Los Angeles earlier this year were visual proof (if needed) of this precipice’s proximity, and of the now-tangible breach of global warming limits outlined in Paris in 2015 – 2024 was the hottest year on record, we now know. With all these variables in mind, it wouldn’t seem impossible for a potential second Cold War to actually transition into a hot war. 

This chaotic convergence of spiralling global issues amounts to a grim prognosis for humanity’s future. Just like the breached global warming threshold, it feels like another limit will soon be exceeded. How far can the proverbial needle tilt before humanity self-destructs? This seems like a question many world leaders are quite willing to test to the limit, while they complacently pursue self-interested policies. An Oppenheimer quote may be appropriate here: perhaps there is “something more important” for the world to talk about. That’s what the Doomsday Clock-setters are urging us, anyway. The scientific voice must be heard and addressed by world leaders before it’s too late – before we hear that deafening tick, tick, BOOM.