The Hidden Cost of a Warming World: Climate Change and the Future of Food

In an era of rising global temperatures, shifting weather patterns, and environmental uncertainty, one of the most immediate ways that people in the so-called ‘Global North’ are beginning to feel the impact of climate change is through their grocery bills. Once predictable and stable, the cost of everyday goods like cheese, coffee, and cocoa have skyrocketed, sending shockwaves through economies and households alike. But, beyond the rising prices in supermarkets, the deeper and often overlooked crisis lies in the devastating impact of climate change on farmers: particularly those in the traditionally termed ‘Global South’, where food production is not just an industry, but a lifeline.

those who contribute least to global emissions (namely small-scale farmers) are among those most affected by its consequences

Climate change impacts food production in numerous ways, from prolonged droughts and devastating floods, to shifting growing seasons and the spread of crop diseases. Small-scale farmers, who make up the majority of agricultural producers in regions such as Sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia, and Latin America, are disproportionately effected. Unlike industrial-scale farms in wealthier nations, these farmers often lack access to irrigation systems, insurance, and financial safety nets. When a drought decimates a harvest, or a flood washes away months of labour, the losses are not merely economic: they can mean hunger, debt, and displacement.

Cocoa farmers in West Africa, for example, are facing increasingly volatile weather patterns which threaten the delicate balance required for Cocoa trees to thrive. Ghana and Cote d’Ivoire, which produce nearly 60% of the world’s cocoa, are experiencing rising temperatures and erratic rainfall, leading to reduced yields and increased vulnerability to pests and diseases. Meanwhile, global demand for chocolate continues to soar, pushing prices higher for consumers; yet, small-scale farmers struggle to make a sustainable living. Climate change does not operate in isolation; it is entangled with existing inequalities, deepening the divide between large and small scale producers, between those who can afford to adapt and those who cannot. According to the Fairtrade Foundation, despite rising prices for cocoa on the global market, many farmers still live below the poverty line due to exploitative supply chains and a lack of bargaining power. The unequal distribution of value in the cocoa supply chain means that brands and retailers capture around 90% of the profits, while only about 7.5% goes to the bean exporters, smallholder farmers, and workers.

The irony of the climate crisis is that those who contribute least to global emissions (namely small-scale farmers) are among those most affected by its consequences. Industrialised nations, whose economies have been built on decades of carbon-intensive development, are better positioned to implement technological solutions such as climate-resilient crops, precision agriculture, and extensive irrigation networks. Meanwhile, subsistence famers in regions like East Africa often face climate disasters with little to no institutional support.

This growing disparity is evident in coffee production as well. In Ethiopia, one of the world’s oldest coffee-growing regions, increasingly unpredictable rainfall is making it harder for farmers to plan their growing cycles. Arabica coffee, which requires temperature ranges to flourish, is under threat, with some estimates suggesting that up to 50% of current coffee-growing land could becomes unsuitable by 2050. In contrast, wealthier coffee producers in Brazil have been able to invest in climate-resistant varieties and infrastructure, further widening the competitive gap.

Another issue exacerbating inequality is land dispossession. As agricultural conditions become harsher, certain groups, corporations and wealthy investors are acquiring fertile land, often displacing smallholder farmers in the process. The phenomenon, sometimes referred to as ‘land grabbing,’ leaves local communities without access to the resources they need to sustain themselves, pushing them into cycles of poverty and forced migration.

food security and climate justice are inextricably linked

While the challenges are immense, there are solutions that could help create a more ethical and sustainable food system. Investment in climate adaptation strategies, such as agroforestry, drought-resistant crops, and sustainable water management,  can provide small famers with the tools they need to withstand climate shocks. Moreover, fair trade initiatives and direct farmer-to-consumer supply chains can help redistribute profits more equitably, ensuring that the farmers who produce the food we depend on are fairly compensated. In Copán, Honduras, the Fairtrade-certified COAGRISCAL cooperative launched the Xol chocolate factory in 2020 to help farmers diversify beyond coffee, which has been devasted by climate change. Alongside chocolate making, the co-op has planted over 1.2 million cocoa trees and 300,000 canopy trees, promoting climate resilience and economic stability. The factory’s response to climate change is remarkable, but even more so is its leadership; an initiative run by women, it challenges the status quo in the male dominated workforce of the region.

At a policy level, governments all over the world, must recognise that food security and climate justice are inextricably linked. Trade policies that favour multinational agribusiness over smallholder farmers must be reformed, and financial mechanisms such as climate insurance should be made accessible to those most vulnerable to environmental disasters. For consumers, awareness is key. The rising cost of food is not merely an economic issue; it is a symptom of a broader, systemic crisis. Supporting ethical and sustainable brands, reducing food waste, and advocating for climate action can all play a role in creating a food system that prioritises people over profit.

As the climate crisis reshapes global food production, the ripple effects are felt across borders and economies. While many consumers grapple with higher food prices, small-scale farmers face existential threats to their livelihoods. Climate change may not recognise economic divides but it certainly exploits them, deepening existing inequalities while creating new ones. Addressing the climate crisis in food production requires not just technical innovation but also a shift in how we value those who grow, harvest, and produce the food that sustains us. In this, we must act not just as consumers, but as global citizens advocating for a system that is equitable, resilient and just.