US eases sanctions on Syria to support rebuilding efforts

The US Treasury announced on Monday it was easing some restrictions on imports to Syria, to facilitate the delivery of humanitarian aid and energy, as the country emerges from under Assad’s rule. The US has stopped short of fully lifting sanctions until the transitional government shares a more defined plan for a rebuild, but has shown goodwill by dropping the $10m reward on Ahmad al-Sharaa’s head.  

The US Treasury’s recent decision to ease the restrictions on imports to Syria marks an important step in addressing the humanitarian and economic crises in the country following the 13-year civil war. Faced with the monumental challenge of rebuilding Syria after the overthrow of the Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad, Washington’s move on 6 January not only allowed the entry of humanitarian aid to the country, but simultaneously but was also perceived by Damascus as a possible starting point towards scaling back the West’s sanctions. This created hope for the transitional government under Hayat Tahrir al-Sham which has begun to seek international support in order to restore the country’s infrastructure, economy and institutions. Nevertheless, much still depends on the government’s ability to tackle the ongoing challenges.  

On Monday 6 January the US Treasury issued a six-month general license that authorizes certain transactions with the government of Syria, including energy sales and incidental transactions. According to the statement from the Treasury Department, the move aims to allow the provision of humanitarian aid and public services to those who are in need in Syria.  

Humanitarian aid seems to be the most effective tool

The decision from Washington was followed by a meeting between the leader of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, Ahmad al-Sharaa, and the top American diplomat for the Middle East, Barbara Leaf, in Damascus. The meeting possibly indicates an attempt to restore the diplomatic relations that ended between Syria and the US during Assad’s rule. Furthermore, one could see signs of the US’s interest in helping Syria to overcome the crisis. Syria’s new authorities have openly shared their hopes that the international community will invest into the country’s economy to make it viable again. Yet, this part still remains uncertain, as the Western sanctions stay remain in place, and, thus, the decision only reflects a limited support from the US for the new government in Syria.  

Humanitarian aid might be what Syria needs the most now. The political turmoil and civil conflict from 2011 until Assad’s downfall last month had extremely terrible effects on Syria’s economy. Destroyed infrastructure, surging inflation, uncertainty about the future, 90% of the population living in poverty and many of them not knowing where their next meal will come from are clearly observable scenes in today’s Syria. According to the estimates, around 500,000 people were killed by the conflict, and the living standards were further worsened by the earthquake in 2023. Syria needs to start by overcoming the food and shelter crises, and humanitarian aid seems to be the most effective tool in solving the aforementioned problems in the shortest possible time frame, as it can directly provide these necessities. Humanitarian aid could help the country to overcome its poverty trap by boosting human capital in the hopes of reviving the economy. However, humanitarian aid should be the initial boost to the economy and it should not persist for the long-term, as it could damage certain sectors or create perverse incentives for economic agents, including the government.  

The EU is expected to alleviate the restrictions in exchange for positive steps on social issues

Syria’s future development greatly depends on the government’s ability to effectively reform the country’s institutions and promote sustainable economic growth. The new authorities have said that the new Syria will be inclusive and open to the world. Indeed, Syria has a key geographic location in the Middle East, which can be used for the country’s benefit by engaging in international trade. To do so, an elimination or easing of the western restrictions on the Syrian economy should be the next step. Indeed, German officials are said to be trying to persuade the EU to lift the sanctions, although no official statements have been made. However, this process still depends on the transitional government, since the EU is expected to alleviate the restrictions in exchange for positive steps on social issues, such as protection of human rights and certain institutional reforms, which could simultaneously help the country in transitioning towards a more democratic state.  

The additional difficulty that might arise for Syria’s government is a possible difference of interests between the Western allies and Russia and Iran towards Syria. These countries might help different political and economic processes to develop in Syria, which creates risks of instability in the country. Turkey and other oil-exporting Gulf states might be interested in expanding their influence on Syria and may be eyeing huge profits from reconstruction deals, as well.  

Overall, humanitarian aid is definitely the best assistance for Syria at the moment. Nevertheless, Syria’s development depends on several other factors. The country needs to use aid as a boost for its economy, and the creation of effective institutions and engagement in international trade should be followed. The assistance of other countries in these processes can be vital for Syria, and the dropping of sanctions play an important role in this aspect. Hence, its government must be sensible while working with the international community. Syria will have a difficult path to take towards development, but if it fails, this might mean years of chaos and instability once again.