The two identities of Ahmed al-Sharaa: which will shape Syria’s future?

On December 8 2024, Ahmed al-Sharaa, also known as Abu Mohammed al-Jolani, addressed a gathering at Damascus’ Umayyad Mosque. At 42 years old, he now stands at the centre of Syria’s uncertain future, having led the coalition that brought down the Assad regime. In his speech, he hailed the moment as a “victory for the Islamic nation”, calling for reflection, unity, and progress.

This enigmatic figure embodies two contrasting identities: the soft-spoken medical student from Damascus and the hardened jihadist leader who once commanded militant forces in Idlib. With the Assad regime’s long reign brought to a dramatic end, Sharaa now faces his most defining challenge – reconciling these dual personas to chart Syria’s course forward. Is he the pragmatic reformer shedding his extremist past, or is he merely presenting a polished façade to secure power and international legitimacy? The answer to this question could determine whether Syria emerges from its ruins as a unified, stable nation or slips back into conflict and authoritarianism.

The Evolution of Ahmed al-Sharaa

Ahmed al-Sharaa’s life began in a prosperous neighbourhood in Damascus. Raised in a progressive household, he excelled academically and pursued medical studies, depicting the image of a young man poised for a conventional career. However, his life took a dramatic turn in the early 2000s, when he joined the jihadist insurgency against US forces in Iraq. During this period, he adopted the nom de guerre Abu Mohammed al-Jolani, a reference to his family’s origins in the Golan Heights.

Sharaa’s rule in Idlib was marked by widespread crackdowns on dissent, arbitrary arrests, and the establishment of an extensive internal security apparatus that monitored both fighters and civilians

Sharaa spent five years in detention camps run by the US, which many analysts regard as incubators of jihadist ideology. Upon his release, he returned to Syria in 2011, joining the nascent insurgency against the Assad regime. He rose quickly through the ranks of militant groups, first affiliating with al-Qaeda and later breaking away to form Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), which became the dominant force in Idlib. Over the next decade, Sharaa established himself as a powerful and controversial figure, ruling a population of two million with an iron fist.

Sharaa’s rule in Idlib was marked by widespread crackdowns on dissent, arbitrary arrests, and the establishment of an extensive internal security apparatus that monitored both fighters and civilians. Journalists, activists, and rival faction leaders who questioned HTS authority were detained, tortured, or disappeared under his orders. Additionally, his administration imposed strict social controls, including a ‘morality police’ tasked with enforcing conservative interpretations of Islamic law, fuelling resentment among many civilians. These measures paint a picture of a leader who maintained power not through popular support, but through fear and unyielding control.

Nevertheless, Sharaa’s trajectory shifted in recent years. His public appearances in plain military attire, his outreach to minority groups, and his reversion to his birth name suggest an effort to leave the ‘Jolani’ identity behind. Yet, the question remains: is this transformation genuine or a calculated political manoeuvre?

Signs of Change

In the months leading up to the fall of the Assad regime, Sharaa made a concerted effort to project a more moderate image. Dropping the Jolani alias was a symbolic gesture, signalling a break from his jihadist past. His actions in the rebel-held territories of Idlib provide further evidence of a shift. Under his leadership, HTS established universities where women constituted more than 60% of the student body, a striking contrast to the rigid policies of groups like the Taliban.

During HTS’s offensive, Sharaa extended amnesty to regime foot soldiers, reassured Christian communities of their safety, and reached out to Kurdish leaders, declaring, “[D]iversity is a strength of which we are proud.”His administration promised to protect Syria’s minorities, including Ismaili Shia and Alawite communities, and to foster inclusivity in the drafting of a new constitution.

Internationally, Sharaa has sought to build bridges. He called for the lifting of sanctions imposed during the Assad era, arguing that they punish the victims rather than the oppressors. In meetings with diplomats, he emphasised the need for reconstruction and national unity, framing HTS as a nationalist movement rather than a jihadist force. Experts such as Shiraz Maher of King’s College London have noted that these developments are signs of genuine change, describing Sharaa’s governance in Idlib as pragmatic and focused on local stability.

The Jihadist Legacy

Despite these reforms, Sharaa’s past casts a long shadow over his leadership. Critics argue that his recent moderation is a tactical manoeuvre aimed at securing international legitimacy rather than a genuine ideological shift. HTS’s history of authoritarian rule in Idlib raises concerns. Dissidents in the region have faced harsh crackdowns and reports of torture and extrajudicial detentions persist. Hardliners within HTS, including foreign fighters with ties to al-Qaeda and ISIS, present another challenge. Some experts caution that Sharaa’s apparent shift may alienate these elements, leading to internal dissent or the resurgence of extremist factions. Furthermore, his decision to retain a jihadist flag alongside Syria’s revolutionary banner during public appearances has fuelled scepticism about the depth of his transformation.

Hussain Abdul-Hussain of the Foundation for the Defence of Democracy warns, “The country is a shambles. There is no economy, no money. Now everyone is happy, but sooner or later, things are going to get real, and my fear is that he turns back to his Islam.”

Governance under HTS in Idlib was marked by heavy-handed control, censorship, and religious policing. If this approach extends nationwide, it could alienate key minority groups and spark renewed cycles of violence and dissent

The Diverging Futures of Syria

Under Sharaa’s leadership, Syria stands at a crossroads. On one hand, there exists the possibility of a Syria governed by pragmatism and inclusivity. Sharaa’s recent reassurances to minority groups, his emphasis on rebuilding the country’s shattered economy, and his calls for international dialogue suggest a vision of Syria as a state focused on national stability rather than ideological purity. If he can secure international recognition, lift sanctions, and attract foreign investment, Syria could begin the long and difficult process of reconstruction. Diplomatic efforts, including dialogue with Turkey, Qatar ,and Jordan, indicate that regional actors are cautiously optimistic about his leadership.

However, the darker possibility remains that Sharaa may revert to authoritarian rule, cloaked in religious rhetoric. His past actions as ‘Jolani’, combined with the ongoing influence of hardline factions within HTS, suggest a risk of Syria becoming a rigid Islamist state. Governance under HTS in Idlib was marked by heavy-handed control, censorship, and religious policing. If this approach extends nationwide, it could alienate key minority groups and spark renewed cycles of violence and dissent.

International stakeholders are watching closely. The outcome will depend not only on Sharaa’s actions but also on the role of external powers such as Turkey, Russia, and the US in supporting, or undermining, Syria’s transition.

The Road Ahead

Ahmed al-Sharaa’s leadership represents a critical juncture for Syria. As a man with two identities, he embodies the tension between reform and rigidity. His actions in the coming months will determine whether Syria moves toward unity and stability or falls back into conflict and repression.

Ultimately, the question remains: can a leader with such a fractured past truly reconcile his dual identities for the greater good of his nation? For now, Syrians, along wih the rest of the world, can only watch and hope.