Should the UK reconsider its relationship with the EU?

A recent cross-Europe study has revealed a significant shift in public opinion on Brexit, with most of those who voted to leave the EU now willing to accept concessions in exchange for access to the single market. This evolving perspective raises a compelling question: is it time for the UK to rethink its relationship with the EU? The answer is far from straightforward as the new Labour government decides on whether a reset of relations means reintegration or more distancing from the European polity.

The European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) study indicates that 54% of Leave voters, including 59% in “red wall” seats, now support free movement for EU and UK citizens in exchange for single market access. This marks a notable departure from the 2016 referendum, where concerns over immigration heavily influenced the Leave campaign. Ultimately, net migration has increased since Brexit, undermining the notion that leaving the EU would resolve immigration challenges.

Revisiting the UK’s relationship with the EU could have significant democratic consequences

Support for this trade-off extends beyond Leave voters: 68% of all UK voters, and most members of major political parties (excluding Reform UK), now back the idea. This shift suggests a growing pragmatism among the British public, who increasingly see the economic benefits of closer EU ties outweighing lingering concerns over free movement.

Revisiting the UK’s relationship with the EU could have significant democratic consequences. Public sentiment favours closer ties, with many regretting Brexit and viewing it as a mistake. However, the issue remains divisive. While some Leave voters are open to compromise, others remain staunchly opposed to reversing course, reflecting a sentiment of having to “lie in the bed” they made.

Confronting Brexit’s aftermath also necessitates addressing the dubious aspects of the Leave campaign. The 2016 referendum was marred by misinformation, unrealistic promises, and an undercurrent of nationalism that exploited public fears. Tackling these issues is essential for a healthier Brexit debate and addressing the deeper rot within UK politics. The erosion of public trust, fuelled by unfulfilled promises and political posturing, continues to shape a fractured national discourse. Reckoning with these issues is a necessary step toward democratic renewal and restoring faith in political institutions, and remains an obstacle to undoing Brexit.

Economic consequences remain a pivotal aspect of the Brexit debate. The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) estimates that the current trading relationship will reduce long-term productivity by 4% compared to EU membership, with exports and imports projected to drop by 15%. These figures confirm what many Britons have felt over the past 4 years, that Brexit has had a significant negative impact on the UK economy. Similarly, the OECD forecasted that Brexit would shrink GDP by over 3% by 2020 and more than 5% by 2030, amounting to a per-household cost of approximately £3,200.

Small businesses have been particularly affected, with many ceasing exports to the EU due to burdensome regulations. However, some argue that Brexit’s economic impact has been less catastrophic than anticipated. While trade has broadly aligned with predictions, investment has suffered more than expected, and immigration effects have been less pronounced. Nonetheless, the overall consensus points to a negative impact on the UK’s economic performance, even acknowledged by staunch Brexiteers—though they argue the remedy lies in pursuing an even harder Brexit, shifting blame to the Boris Johnson premiership.

Concerns over sovereignty and public concerns about immigration must be weighed against the tangible advantages of single-market access and improved global relations

Brexit has strained the UK’s diplomatic relationship with the EU, yet the possibility of closer ties has been met with optimism by many European nations, as “resetting relations” with European partners was a cornerstone of Labour’s successful 2024 general election campaign. Improved relations could enhance security and foreign-policy collaboration, particularly in light of shared challenges such as the war in Ukraine. Britain’s status as a key ally underscores the value of continental unity in turbulent times, something acknowledged by Keir Starmer early in the year before his election victory, as he was seen pictured with leaders such as Olaf Schultz at a security conference in Munich.

One specific area where progress is urgently needed is youth mobility. Brexit denied younger generations the right to live, work, and travel freely across Europe. Plans for a Youth Mobility Scheme—a potential solution to this injustice—are already under discussion but face tricky negotiations and political complexities in Brussels. Younger generations, who overwhelmingly opposed Brexit, view such a scheme as crucial to mending ties with Europe. Addressing this issue would signal a commitment to fairness and reconciliation, providing tangible benefits for young people and fostering goodwill on both sides of the Channell; a perfect first step to rolling back some of Brexit’s worst repercussions.

Finally, an area where we are already seeing increased cooperation is on the immigration front. As Labour promised to mitigate irregular migration to the UK, they have been forced into negotiation with the EU to fortify their borders. Pictured side by side with Georgia Meloni and praising harsh new Italian border policy in September, Starmer has taken his first step to reset relations with EU nations, following trade negotiations in Germany with discussions on replicating Italian crackdowns on refugees and migrants in the first 2 months of his premiership.

The shifting attitudes of the British public demand serious consideration of the UK’s current stance on Brexit. The economic hardships and diminished international influence resulting from the decision to leave the EU suggest that a recalibration may be in order. Concerns over sovereignty and public concerns about immigration must be weighed against the tangible advantages of single-market access and improved global relations.

A move toward closer EU alignment, even short of full membership, could help restore economic stability and strengthen international partnerships. Embracing a pragmatic approach that prioritises economic well-being and global cooperation may offer the UK a path forward. In a world increasingly defined by interconnected challenges, the time to consider undoing Brexit is upon us.