How will the Trump presidency affect climate policy?

Trump’s re-election into cabinet has inevitably sparked great controversy and fear in a time of such political uncertainty. The relative failures of COP29 in Azerbaijan, and the need for immediate action in an increasingly desperate time for the climate, means that Trump’s election poses a substantial risk to the extent of which climate action will be carried forth.  

Climate change will be increasingly disregarded on the political agenda, and this will be increasingly accepted.

Trump’s recent inauguration immediately led to the US’s withdrawal from the Paris Climate Agreement.  In 2017, Elise Stefanik, the US’s current UN ambassador stated that, “Withdrawing from the Paris Agreement is misguided, and harms the ongoing effort to fight climate change while also isolating us from our allies.”  However, as American politics has become increasingly polarised in the year leading up to the 2024 election, her narrative shifted, and she declared that “Americans have had enough of Joe Biden and far-left Democrats’ anti-American energy policies.”  Collective support for this withdrawal is more than concerning, showing a widespread regression from even considering climate disaster as a concern. With the recent fires in California and hurricanes in Florida, America should certainly not be overlooking the impact that carbon emissions have on the climate. 

Furthermore, the infamous Project 2025 aims to fortify the United States as the world’s foremost superpower, at the expense of environmental protections. It allows new oil and gas drilling, and the repeal of the IRA (Inflation Reduction Act). The conservative Heritage Foundation, which leads Project 2025, has said a new Trump administration should “eradicate climate change references from absolutely everywhere.” With the climate narrative being falsified by Republican officials, the American population in support of Trump’s presidency will carry on the message of this so-called fallacy. Climate change will be increasingly disregarded on the political agenda, and this will be increasingly accepted.  

Experts predict that the neglect of climate needs, as well as the continuation of burning fossil fuels on such a large scale, will increase emissions by 2.7bn tonnes above the current trajectory by 2030 in the US, an amount comparable to the entire annual emissions of India. A 2.7 bn increase above predictions is substantial. To put this in perspective, the 2015 Paris Agreement signed by 196 countries (including the United States), states that warming must be limited to 1.5°C, and that greenhouse gas emissions must peak before 2025 at the latest and decline 43% by 2030.   

The influential Elon Musk has often vouched for the creation of more sustainable energy initiatives, but also that “we don’t have to rush” to renewables. The International Energy Agency disagrees, and says that nations must quickly cut their emissions and transition away from fossil fuels to meet climate goals. His increased respect within the party, poses a risk for the urgency in which climate change is addressed. With it being viewed as insignificant, sustainability risks being disregarded completely in favour of expanding American power through increasing fossil fuel consumption and production.  

Belief of  the climate crisis being a key factor separating the two major parties in one of the foremost countries in the world, is more than concerning. With far-right politics becoming increasingly present globally, we are at a huge risk of ignorance of climate becoming something increasingly widespread.   

It is his inaction that brings the most concern, and irreversible change.

Trumps’ narrative is of course supported by his cabinet – influential figures who do not necessarily have much political, or scientific experience. His Deputy President Vance (former attorney), called the IRA a “green energy scam.” Chris Wright, Trump’s new Energy Executive (also Chief executive of the gas drilling company Liberty Energy), has stated that  

“There is no climate crisis,” and that “carbon pollution” and even “clean energy” are “nonsense terms” that have been “made up by alarmists.” The Republican Party holds the belief that the Climate Crisis has been something created to reduce fossil fuel emissions and ultimately harm the American economy. With increased economic uncertainty as a result of the Cost-of-Living Crisis, it is unsurprising that these narratives are supported by the majority of the American populace, who are looking for something tangible to blame for their hardships.  

Unfairly, the climate narrative has become the centre-point of Republican contempt, with aims to reduce emissions being interpreted as a ploy to harm the American economy. The disregard to the ongoing crisis is not only concerning, but detrimental to global efforts to thwart the climate crisis. Although Trump’s action will not be immediate, with it being inevitable that burning fossil fuels on a more substantial scale will not happen overnight, it is his inaction that brings the most concern, and irreversible change.