A selection of election reflections: shocks, shams, and all manner of shakes

2024 was the year of the election and also the dragon. Across more than 70 countries over 1.7 billion people went to the polls, in elections which decided the leadership of almost half the global population. Join me as I take a look at some of the shocking shams, incompetent incumbents, global trends, and iconic moments, which defined this year of elections.

According to the Financial Times, on average across the developed world, incumbents’ vote share fell by seven percentage points in 2024. This is a record.

Incumbents: encumbered or incompetent?
Across the world, incumbent candidates suffered major losses. In the United Kingdom, Rishi Sunak’s Conservatives lost by a landslide, in the USA, Kamala Harris’s Democrats lost the election and both houses of Congress, and in France, Emmanuel Macron saw his newly formed coalition lose seats, leaving the French parliament hanging.

In India, Narendra Modi and the BJP saw less support than ever forcing him to form a coalition government, in South Africa, Nelson Mandela’s party the ANC lost their majority for the first time in 30 years, and in Botswana, the BDP were dramatically voted out after almost 60 years in power. According to the Financial Times, on average across the developed world, incumbents’ vote share fell by seven percentage points in 2024. This is a record.

Elsewhere, national elections in Austria, Belgium, Japan, Uruguay, Portugal, Ghana, Panama. and South Korea all saw the incumbent party lose ground with the electorate. For the first time in 120 years, the incumbents of the 10 major countries, seven of which held elections this year, all lost vote share, according to the ParlGov research project.

Not all countries saw the incumbent leaders weakened, however. For example, in Rwanda, President Kagame saw his vote share increase to 99% in 2024, compared to just 98% in 2017, a remarkable achievement and a great day for democracy, to say the least. In Russia, Vladimir Putin saw his vote share increase from 76% to 88%, which I think we can all agree is very impressive and is presumably the result of a passionate grassroots campaign.

In Syria too, President Assad increased his control of the People’s Assembly gaining two additional seats in the very real, definitely powerful, and fully democratic Syrian parliament. Unfortunately, this vote may have slightly failed to fully capture the mood of the nation as he was overthrown and forced to flee Syria just five months later. However, fear not, as sources inside the Kremlin have informed us that his resignation was for personal reasons and not because his entire regime had collapsed, forcing him to flee for his life.

The long-term impact of COVID and the rise of energy costs, as a result of the Russia-Ukraine War, served to weaken national economies across the world

In Belarus, the incumbent government performed similarly well, although, handily for them, their elections featured no opposition parties. Still, the 2024 census of the incumbent continued to do its work, as Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro only secured 52% of the vote, compared to 68% in 2018, which is frankly embarrassing, especially since he so obviously rigged the thing. Shockingly, however, all four of these elections scored very poorly in terms of civil liberties and political rights, according to Freedom House, and were all judged as not being free elections – so perhaps we should discount them. It’s the economy.

Why then did incumbents all over the world and across both sides of the aisle perform so badly in free and fair elections? The answer is the economy, and also immigration. The long-term impact of Covid and the rise of energy costs, as a result of the Russia-Ukraine War, served to weaken national economies across the world. Furthermore, the rise in prices and inflation after the pandemic, combined with increasing wealth inequality and a growing distrust in the system, ultimately resulted in many countries rejecting their existing leaders. The Financial Times went as far as stating that: “the economic and geopolitical conditions of the past year or two have created arguably the most hostile environment in history for incumbent parties and politicians across the developed world.”

2024 was billed as a year where democracy would be tested to an unprecedented extent, with Time Magazine describing it as a ‘make or break year for democracy’

Ironically, many of these economic problems were largely out of any government’s direct control, however, prices remained high and people voted with their wallets. Globally, most ignored the fact that many economic issues were not the result of their government but were instead caused by supply-side problems, a result of Putin’s invasion of Ukraine and Covid-19. In the UK, the cost of living and economic mismanagement were the chief concerns and complaints of the electorate. Similarly in the US, voters across the country continued to feel the pinch of high prices and soundly rejected the incumbent Democrat party. The global economic problems look to be the primary trend that motivated discontented electorates, across the world, to emphatically reject their sitting leaders – even if some of those economic issues were global, and largely out of the control of national governments.

Is democracy in danger?
2024 was billed as a year where democracy would be tested to an unprecedented extent, with Time Magazine describing it as a ‘make or break year for democracy’. Just four years on from the capital riots in Washington and Trump’s election denial, the world braced for impact as he returned ready to fight another campaign. For many, it seemed like the very ideal of democracy was at stake. Notably, since 2020, a fifth of elections worldwide have been challenged and similarly, 20% have been publicly disavowed by a losing candidate, so perhaps people were right to be concerned. In the United Kingdom, however, 2024 was not marked by a clash of civilisations or democracy’s last stand, rather, it saw a general sense of voter apathy, with the lowest voter turnout since women’s suffrage.

In Bangladesh, on the other hand, democracy was certainly tested, as the presiding prime minister Sheik Hasina won her fifth term in office, with the help of police violence and mass arrests of her opposition. Thankfully, democracy prevailed as Sheik Hasina resigned and was forced to flee just seven months later following large-scale protests, led by a passionate student movement. Hasina has now been replaced by Nobel Peace Prize winner Muhammad Yunus, who, frankly, sounds much better.

In the United States, democracy persists, though most pollsters and pundits failed to predict the extent of the defeat for Kamala Harris and the Democratic party. Fortunately, the transfer of power appears to be going smoothly and professionally, a feat many Republicans seemed unable to achieve back in 2020.

Things appear more hopeful in Senegal, despite their firm placement next to the ‘coup belt’ and the efforts of incumbent president Macky Sall as he attempted to postpone his election undemocratically. This was met with unprecedented support for Senegal’s leading opposition candidate Diomaye,  driven by a powerful youth movement. This ultimately pressured the now-former President Sall into stepping down in favour of the popular opposition leader President Diomaye.

Golfshots and gunshots
This year was filled with a number of iconic moments, most notable of all, of course, was the attempted assassination of Donald Trump at a campaign rally in Pennsylvania. This attempt on his life further galvanised his support, boosted his donations and led to many messianic, and arguably heretical, depictions of him by his rather intense fanbase. It also saw him don the largest ear bandage ever worn and created one of the most iconic pictures of the year – Vincent Van Gogh is surely turning in his grave.

Other classic moments abounded: Rishi Sunak got sad because he couldn’t afford Sky TV as a kid, Elon Musk continued his supervillain arc, and Nigel Farage got drenched in what looked to be a banana-flavoured milkshake by an Only Fans model. An attack so brutal that it forced him to flee to America for most of the year, for his own safety, of course. The French did what the French did best and had a protest, someone tried to kill Trump again, luckily for him, he was in his home territory, a golf course, so he managed to survive this one as well.

2024 has certainly been one for the history books, as, arguably, all years are, and the central theme of  2024 was undoubtedly the many, many elections which were held, the grand extent of which I can assure you of, having researched this article. Across the year, we saw iconic moments, unexpected results, blatant fraud, and the failure of incumbents on an unprecedented scale. It also saw democracy tested like never before. While it survived those tests, it has certainly not come out unscathed. Ultimately, whether democracy will successfully endure the years to come is hard to say for sure.