What will Trump’s presidency mean for Ukraine?

The United States of America: an economic and military powerhouse. Donald Trump, the man who, in 2018, bragged about remembering to recite “person, woman, man, camera, TV” in a cognitive test, is now in charge of said powerhouse, and has major influence on the outcome of Ukraine’s future.

Various comments made by Donald Trump and members of the Republican Party over the last eight or so years has led me to believe that his relationship with Putin and increasing interest in isolationist policies will not provide Ukraine with the freedom it deserves. Anthony Zurcher of the BBC states that Trump “has shown a predisposition to be sympathetic” to Vladimir Putin – I strongly agree with this, as Trump believed Putin’s assertion that Russia did not interfere with the 2016 election, as opposed to US Intelligence officials who argued that Russia’s meddling with the election was likely. This is arguably quite ironic for someone who blamed his presidential election loss in 2020 on widespread voter fraud, despite there being no evidence. Furthermore, Trump labelled Putin a “smart” man, even after the Ukrainian invasion, and has spoken of their apparent friendly relationship numerous times: Putin complimented Trump’s “bravery” after the assassination attempt on him.

Ukraine’s future is uncertain as there is no guarantee that other NATO allies would be able to support the country as much as the US has

Despite Kamala Harris’ belief that “if Donald Trump were president, Putin would be sitting in Kyiv right now” not reaching fruition, I can understand why she would think this, especially due to his stance on NATO. Trump has previously described NATO as “obsolete” and expressed anger at the US for providing military and economic help to other countries, declining to fully support Article 5: collective defence. He has also implied that he would oppose Ukraine’s desire to join NATO. Therefore, Ukrainian fears of a possible severing of military and economic aid from the US, as well as being coerced into a peace agreement with Russia in which it surrenders its land, are especially valid.

The US has provided the most arms to Ukraine compared to the rest of the world: a $61 billion military aid package was approved in early 2024, but Trump views this aid as too excessive. Trump’s inner circle seems to share the same indifference towards Ukraine and supports isolationist policies, making the future of Ukraine appear even more futile. Vice President JD Vance has also expressed his belief that economic assistance to Ukraine should be stopped by opposing the bills supporting Ukraine, as well as explicitly stating that he “doesn’t really care” about the country. In parallel, Trump’s own son, Donald Trump Jr., openly mocked President Zelensky on X in July. If Trump is constantly surrounded by those who lack empathy and criticise Ukraine’s struggle to defend itself, rather than actively wanting to help, then I worry for the future of Ukraine. Without US support, Ukraine’s future is uncertain as there is no guarantee that other NATO allies would be able to support the country as much as the US has. However, we must not forget that Ukraine is around 28 times smaller than Russia and has still fought valiantly, initially with minimal aid, and could perhaps drag on the war for longer if Donald Trump does take away US support.

There continues to be much speculation about whether Trump will adopt more isolationist policies and steer the US away from the war

I am struggling to come to a conclusion regarding Ukraine’s future as President Trump has neither specifically spoken in pro-Russia rhetoric, nor has he obviously shown strong support for Ukraine. Prior to being elected as president, Trump stated numerous times that he would end the Russia-Ukraine war “in one day.” It is again unclear exactly how he sets out to achieve this, but Trump has implied that forcing Ukraine to negotiate with Russia and give up their territory, as well as getting rid of all US aid, would end the war. Nevertheless, I believe that this would result in a complete and disastrous takeover of Ukraine.

The news of a successful phone call between Trump and Zelensky, in which “both sides claimed to be satisfied with how the conversation went,” and wherein Trump vowed to achieve a “just peace” in Ukraine once president, insinuates that Trump does really wish to end the war. However, I think this is purely for self-interested reasons and to emphasise the concept of “America First.” President Zelensky congratulated newly elected Donald Trump and later stated that that war would “end sooner” with Trump as US President, which implies that relations between the two politicians have improved, and this will be beneficial for Ukraine’s future.

With every article I read and every news programme I watch, none have provided a definitive answer about how Trump intends to deal with the Russia-Ukraine war. It has been nearly a month since he won the election, and yet there is still no proper peace plan. There continues to be much speculation about whether Trump will adopt more isolationist policies and steer the US away from the war, which he does not consider his responsibility, by cutting military, economic and humanitarian aid to Ukraine. Ultimately, I truly do not know what the outcome of the Russia-Ukraine war will be, and I do not think that Donald Trump does either.