Successes, snubs, and surprise: Who will win big this awards season?

With the opening for Grammys submissions officially closed, music lovers and critics alike can finally begin their speculation as to who will take home some of the industry’s most coveted awards this winter. Big releases from so many artists at the peak of their game mean that the 2025 award season is sure to be a momentous occasion.  

Firstly, we can’t talk about award season without talking about Taylor Swift. Although her most recent album, The Tortured Poets Department, was met with mixed reviews, she holds a dominant position in popular culture that awards committees love to reward, as they did in February when she claimed her record-breaking fourth Album of the Year title. She’ll be contending with many other popstars at the height of their game: Billie Eilish is notorious for sweeping up trophies, and her latest record Hit Me Hard and Soft will likely be appearing in the big categories, same with Ariana Grande, with her most cohesive work to date, Eternal Sunshine.  

Sabrina Carpenter’s ‘Espresso’, with its iconic hook and pitch-perfect production, is the obvious frontrunner for Song of the Year

Other big categories are harder to predict. Sabrina Carpenter’s ‘Espresso’, with its iconic hook and pitch-perfect production, is the obvious frontrunner for Song of the Year, but this category always allows for variety, and with variety comes unpredictability. If the judges can get over the less-than-PG subject matter of ‘Not Like Us’, then Kendrick Lamar may be in with a good chance, and other acts such as Teddy Swims, Shaboozey, and Hozier are also potential nominees.  

While the huge volume of projects released by highly successful artists has made for an exciting year for music, it also unfortunately means that a lot of underdogs might be shut out of the major categories (Troye Sivan, Kacey Musgraves, or Childish Gambino, for example), as well as the many hip-hop, funk, and rap artists who usually struggle to break into the so-called ‘Big Four’. Even artists who have already established themselves as powerhouses may struggle – Dua Lipa’s Radical Optimism, which was met with underwhelming reviews, is the most notable example, but additional acts such as Pearl Jam or Peter Gabriel might feel their star power muffled.  

The country genre is most likely where we’ll see the most controversy this season – the Country Music Awards’ complete shut-out of Beyoncé, despite it being the first album by a black woman to reach No.1 on the country charts, as well as the Grammys’ long history of snubbing her in the major categories, has sewn pessimism among champions of Cowboy Carter. For the first time, Post Malone will be a contender in the country categories, but artists such as Chris Stapleton and Zach Bryan are favoured by the bookies.  

Indeed, every award is unique, and each voter will be looking for something different that makes a project a winner

Another close and controversial race we may see is between Chappell Roan and Sabrina Carpenter, both frontrunners for the coveted Best New Artist awards. Roan took home the Moonman at the VMAs, but Carpenter’s near-perfect rollout for her newest album Short ‘n’ Sweet, as well as some technicalities that allow her to compete in the category despite releasing her first project in 2015, might push her into the top spot.  

Indeed, every award is unique, and each voter will be looking for something different that makes a project a winner. For example, Charli XCX’s revolutionary brat will likely fare better at the BRIT awards in March, where tastes tend to sway more in favour of the alternative underdogs than the Recording Academy. Nobody else captured the cultural zeitgeist like her, with the vulnerable yet adrenaline-infused album finding everyone from partygoers to politicians, from teachers to TikTok. It’s for that reason that, out of anyone this year, she deserves to win big and take home a trophy as the perfect lime green cherry on top of her extraordinary summer.