A deep dive on North Korea’s involvement in the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war

North Korea, also known as DPRK (Democratic People’s Republic of Korea) has shielded itself in secrecy, through a closed-off economy and the fact that a tourist can only visit if they are partaking in a ‘guided tour’. While the regime itself has been set on internationally projecting a good image – suggesting the country to be self-sufficient and optimally organised, the facts don’t always line up. One might take a look at the stories of North Korean defectors, or indeed, at the alarming statistics about malnutrition (UN World Food Programme reports 10.7 million people are undernourished, out of a population of 25.9 million). There is a dearth of facts, but not ones of inconsistency.

Now, however, the elusive DPRK is at the centre of political discourse. Speculations about North Korean soldiers being stationed in Russia have been confirmed, however, the numbers continue to be elusive. While the Pentagon reported around 10,000 troops in the Kursk Oblast, the US Department of Defense estimated between 11,000 and 12,000 troops earlier in November. Further, Bloomberg has reported recently that an anonymous source close to the Russian Defence Ministry has noted that the number may go up to 100,000 if the need arises.

A spokesperson for the White House has labelled North Korea as “fair game” now that they have shown their direct involvement in Russia’s cause

Historically and politically, North Korea has been allied with China and Russia but has, for the most part, maintained a vague attitude in international conflicts. Now, however, their direct involvement in the Russia-Ukraine conflict has led to rising tensions. This could possibly be the beginning of an internationalisation of the war. While both Russia and Ukraine have received support through arms and goods, North Korea’s involvement seems exponentially more direct.

North Korea seems determined to stay on Russia’s side, with its foreign minister, Choe Sun Hui, vocalising DPRK’s support on a trip to Moscow, according to The Independent. The same source also reports that the climate is getting increasingly tense with nations such as the US, Germany, the UK, and South Korea. A spokesperson for the White House has labelled North Korea as “fair game” now that they have shown their direct involvement in Russia’s cause. In a recent conference in late October, South Korea’s president, Yoon Suk Yeol, discussed his openness to supplying arms to Ukraine in light of North Korea’s involvement Al-Jazeera reports. This is important to keep in mind, since hitherto, South Korea has shied away from supplying arms for any ongoing conflicts in general.

Then comes the question of North Korea’s army and its strength. Sources are conflicted on their stance, while The Guardian is sceptical about the quality of their forces, the BBC is wary about taking a definitive stance. For the purpose of acquiring a fair appraisal, it might be necessary to investigate both sides.

Belief can be powerful and lead to enviable resilience

On one hand, one may doubt DPRK’s military merit. There are concrete facts that illustrate this very doubt. North Korea has not been involved in any major war since the Korean War in the 1950s. They have been involved in minor conflicts but nothing comparable to the intensity of the Russia-Ukraine conflict over the last two years. In theory, the intensity of training they may have received in North Korea could be meritorious but there is no way of knowing just yet. While Russia is apparently training North Korean troops, there will be a significant lingual and cultural barrier. Not to mention the obvious geographical differences between North Korean and Ukrainian terrain.

Also, this decision seems to demonstrate Russia’s desperation. It is hard to know how many Russian troops have been lost to this war, but figures across a range of sources point to a number between 600,000 and 700,000. It is clear this conflict has proved perilous for Russia’s manpower, which, in a way, has created the need for foreign involvement. This begs an obvious question, however – is this not putting North Korean troops into a situation they cannot perceive the danger of? Moreover, do these North Korean troops, purported to be rather young, know the gravity of what is happening? This sets up a worrisome situation, in which it almost seems as if young, naïve and indoctrinated soldiers are being set up to fight in a war they might perish in. With the surging number of Russian casualties, it is safe to assume there may now also be many North Korean casualties as well.

Conversely, North Korea’s enigmatic nature may play to its advantage. There is little information on how intensive the military training is, however, it is known that the military has been trained to believe in DPRK’s power and the Kim regime’s authority. A wide range of defectors have cited the prevalence of fantastical mythologies that idolise and idealise the Kim family. Belief can be powerful and lead to enviable resilience. The extent of North Korean military technology is also unknown, and it may be far more advanced than anyone could predict and with their troops receiving training in Russia, they may become a strong force in the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

In the end, North Korea’s obscurity seems to have been an advantage for them, as little is known about the extent of their power and resources.

There is a final question left to ask, then: what is North Korea getting out of its involvement? To corroborate a wide range of information, the answer points to financial gain. North Korea’s financial perils have been ongoing; it has been in debt since shortly after its conception, owing billions of dollars to the former Soviet Union and Japan, among other nations. The BBC’s coverage points to an estimate of South Korean intelligence that North Korea can earn around $2000 dollars a month per soldier involved in the conflict – money likely to go into the state’s accounts. This would also undoubtedly allow North Korean officials to gain access to global military technology and operations which would be a significant asset with respect to furthering DPRK’s own military strategy.

North Korea is also notorious for its famines and malnutrition problem. In 2017 the BBC published an alarming report about a North Korean defector, who after escaping to South Korea, was reported to have intestinal worms and other parasites, as well as severe malnutrition. Many defectors’ stories will cite malnutrition and the almost perpetual famine as the chief reason for their escape. Since the COVID-19 pandemic, however, Kim Jong-Un has sealed off most of North Korea’s borders, especially the one with China, which was the most popular among defectors. While belief in the regime may be dwindling escape is near-impossible

In the end, North Korea’s obscurity seems to have been an advantage for them, as little is known about the extent of their power and resources. After all, in times like these, with rising conflicts and relentless warring, not knowing can be detrimental.