Conservative leadership showdown: Badenoch and Jenrick signal risky rightward shift

Kemi Badenoch and Robert Jenrick are the two remaining candidates in the 2024 Conservative Party leadership race, following the unexpected defeat of the bookies’ favourite, James Cleverly. After their recent general election defeat, the Tories now face a future set on an unavoidable right-wing path, with the winner announced on November 2. But who are these candidates, and how did the Conservative Party arrive at this moment?

Having cycled through three prime ministers since Boris Johnson’s 2019 election victory, the Tories endured their worst defeat in party history at the 2024 general election. Covid-19 scandals, the disastrous 44-day premiership of Liz Truss, and most critically, rising interest rates and cost-of-living concerns decimated their standing. These issues left the party trailing Labour by a considerable margin in the polls long before the July election. Combined with the rise of the far-right Reform UK and a Liberal Democrat resurgence, these elements delivered a near-fatal blow at the ballot box.

The Conservatives ultimately plummeted to a historic low of 121 seats, while Reform UK secured a significant 14% of the general vote, and the Lib Dems won all but one of their target seats. Following this crushing loss, Rishi Sunak resigned, and a leadership race loomed. By September, the contenders included Kemi Badenoch, James Cleverly, Robert Jenrick, Priti Patel, Mel Stride, and Tom Tugendhat.

Badenoch may not possess the political acumen needed to win elections or lead the country, but her popularity among party members could still earn her the role

Notably absent from the race were Suella Braverman, the far-right former home secretary, and Jeremy Hunt, the last prominent figure of the moderate ‘One Nation’ faction within the party. Hunt narrowly held onto his seat, blocking the Liberal Democrats from a clean sweep in their target areas. Among the candidates, Stride, Cleverly, and Tugendhat leaned toward the party’s moderate wing, while the remaining candidates, including Badenoch and Jenrick, represented a rightward shift that polling shows resonates strongly with Conservative party members.

Patel was the first to be eliminated, followed by Stride and Tugendhat in subsequent rounds. On October 9, Cleverly — despite leading the race with 39 votes just the day before — was eliminated in a shock result, paving the way for a head-to-head between Badenoch and Jenrick. Badenoch led with 42 votes, Jenrick closely trailed with 41, and Cleverly slumped to 37, his unexpected exit attributed to suspected tactical voting errors by moderate MPs.

Who is Badenoch, the current favourite for Leader of the Opposition? As Secretary of State for Business and Trade and Minister for Women and Equalities in Sunak’s government, Badenoch champions right-wing policies under her ‘Renewal 2030,’ campaign, positioning herself as an ‘anti-woke’ conservative. But recent media scrutiny has highlighted her criticisms of maternity pay, minimum wage, and the civil service, calling the first two “excessive” and arguing that 5-10% of civil servants are “should-be-in-prison bad” at their jobs. These controversial remarks, labelled “gaffes” by Tory commentator Albie Amankona, suggest that Badenoch may not possess the political acumen needed to win elections or lead the country, but her popularity among party members could still earn her the role.

Jenrick, while also right-wing, is a more policy-focused yet ideologically driven candidate

At the Conservative Party Conference, Badenoch’s candid comments reportedly were not as negatively received internally as they were publicly. Many party members view her bluntness as refreshing and believe it challenges the status quo, a narrative she embraces. Her campaign’s social policies, particularly her strong opposition to Critical Race Theory and transgender rights, resonate with former Reform voters, marking a clear break from Boris Johnson’s economically liberal “Levelling Up” strategy. Instead, her approach relies on inflammatory ‘culture war’ rhetoric, which is often called “weird” by media and now by Tory party members alike, echoing the American Republican Party’s tactics in the 2022 midterms, which led to heavy losses. Whether her brand of conservatism can form a viable leadership vision remains uncertain.

On the other side stands Robert Jenrick. Jenrick, while also right-wing, is a more policy-focused candidate driven by ideology. His campaign got off to a rocky start in August when, while discussing his belief in the myth of a ‘two-tier police system’ on Sky News, he stated: “I thought it was quite wrong that somebody could shout ‘Allahu Akbar’ on the streets of London and not be immediately arrested.”

This remark, in reference to far-right racist riots and clashes, drew significant backlash. In September, Jenrick also courted controversy by wearing a hoodie with the slogan “Hamas are Terrorists” in the colours of the Palestinian flag. Despite these missteps, his campaign focuses primarily on immigration and security. He is the only candidate advocating for withdrawing from the European Court of Human Rights to enforce stricter border controls, and he calls for increased defence spending alongside caps on migration, having resigned from Sunak’s government due to perceived inaction on immigration. Jenrick, while also right-wing, is a more policy-focused yet ideologically driven candidate, who even named his daughter’s middle name “Thatcher,” in honour of the former Prime Minister.

If the Conservative Party fails to acknowledge the importance of its moderate members, MPs, and voters, it risks another defeat in a low turnout election

The selection of Badenoch and Jenrick as the final two candidates has sparked concern among moderates. Many are uneasy with both candidates’ populist, single-issue style of politics, preferring a focus on reclaiming lost seats from Labour and the Liberal Democrats. Former ministers also point to the absence of attention to the NHS and broader economic issues in both campaigns, which recent YouGov polling shows are the British public’s top priorities. This led to a statement and refusal of endorsement from the Tory Reform Group. In their final remarks, the group, which represents ‘radically moderate’ One-Nation conservatism, urged “the final two candidates to recognise where the values of the British people truly lie…” If the Conservative party fails to acknowledge the importance of its moderate members, MPs, and voters, it risks another defeat in a low turnout election

As the leadership race nears its conclusion, the far-right-wing future of the Conservative party is set in stone. Whether the next leader can win back votes from Reform UK and shape a successful political strategy with this rhetoric remains to be seen. The choice now lies with the Conservative Party members, who must choose a leader capable of uniting not just the party, but the electorate at large, ahead of the 2029 general election.