The attempted assassination of Donald Trump, what are the long-term implications?

On July 13, 2024, an attempted assassination occurred at a rally in Butler, Pennsylvania, where former President Donald Trump was shot by an assailant later identified as 20-year-old Thomas Matthew Crooks. The attack resulted in injuries to Trump and two innocent bystanders. The aftermath of the incident reflects the current divisive political climate in the U.S., particularly between Democrats and Republicans. Trump’s supporters have pointed to conspiracy theories whilst the public has questioned current security measures.

However, the assassination attempt has sparked a unified response across various political leanings, with a consensus on the need for public safety and unity. Trump and his supporters strongly condemned the attack, framing it as part of a broader pattern of hostility towards him. Other political candidates have responded with varying degrees of condemnation of the violence and call for enhanced security measures.

The aftermath of the incident reflects the current divisive political climate in the U.S., particularly between Democrats and Republicans

Historically, an attack on a political figure can provide an immediate bump in voter approval, though this effect may be fleeting. The attack is likely to impact public perception in several ways:

Security: Heightened concerns about personal safety and national security may arise, specifically regarding the Secret Service’s current measures.

Stability: The incident is indicative of increasing political instability.

Leadership: Trump’s image as a resilient leader could be strengthened by his survival of the attack.

For Trump’s base, the shooting could galvanise support, reinforcing their loyalty. Undecided voters may be swayed either by aligning with Trump’s narrative of victimisation or by heightened concerns about political violence.

Media coverage of the shooting will likely emphasise its dramatic nature, including the photo of Trump pumping his fists in triumph seconds after the shooting, potential motives, and implications for security. Traditional media might focus on the impact on safety and election dynamics, while social media, which has greatly influenced the election landscape, has spread opinions and conspiracies, potentially leading to increased polarization and misinformation, particularly among younger demographics.

The attempted assassination of Donald Trump has had immediate and significant impacts on the political landscape. While some view it as a way to enhance Trump’s hero status and influence the election, it is crucial to approach the situation with sensitivity and recognise the uncertainty in predicting electoral outcomes based on a single event.

 Additionally, the public has labelled this incident as the most significant failure of the Secret Service in years. The security perimeter excluded the AGR building (where Crooks was stationed). Despite prior acknowledgement of this building as a vulnerable spot, no action was taken. The Secret Service was responsible for this area rather than local law enforcement; therefore, they face criticism for this major oversight. Furthermore, in the minutes before the shooting, agents reportedly identified an individual deemed suspicious, raising questions about why Trump was allowed on the stage despite this acknowledgment. The differentiation between “suspicious” and “threatening” remains ambiguous and should have been communicated more clearly. Kimberly Cheatle, head of the Secret Service at the time of the assassination attempt, has since resigned following the backlash. 

The shooting has highlighted significant lapses in security coordination, especially outside the main perimeter. Overall, this attempted assassination serves as a stark reminder of the vulnerabilities in national security and the pressing need for a revaluation of political discourse and safety measures.

Trump’s assassination attempt galvanises the republican voter base as they are increasingly incentivised to support their party candidate as he is now a symbol of perseverance amid adversity

Trump’s assassination attempt galvanises the republican voter base as they are increasingly incentivised to support their party candidate as he is now a symbol of perseverance amid adversity. Trump has consistently been painted as the misunderstood villain who is seen as a threat as he stands for “the truth” in his supporters’ eyes. This attempt on his life brings merit to these supposed claims and further bonds the former president with the masses. Since the shooting supporters have started sporting bandages on their ears as an act of solidarity. In addition, the growing political sentiment is that the Democratic Party’s political run has been a mess. Biden’s deteriorating health, disappointing performance in debates and subsequent withdrawal from the race portray a sense of disorganisation to the American people.

Kamala Harris, his replacement, faces an uphill battle as a woman and a Black woman, making it harder for her to appeal to a broad range of voters. Given Trump’s consistency and adamant views, he is now positioned as a strong contender in the political arena. This assassination attempt could, therefore, be seen as a pivotal moment in his favour. This in turn shapes him up to be the political favourite of the American people and this assassination attempt is his golden moment.