Tories face wipeout, projection suggests, as Labour eyes historic landslide

Labour could be set to win its largest ever victory, and the Conservatives suffer their worst result in history, at the general election, a recent YouGov polling projection has suggested.

The prediction, commissioned by Sky News, would see numerous electoral records being broken, representing the largest ever seat share for Labour, the largest Labour majority, and the highest number of seats won by any party since 1924.

Multi-level regression and post-stratification (MRP) polls are distinct from regular polling, as they seek to delve beyond a national picture to look into individual constituencies.

On the two occasions it has been used previously, in 2017 and 2019, the method predicted the results of both elections to a high degree of accuracy.

This is the first of three MRP polls that YouGov intends to produce over the election period, aiming to present the mood of voters before polling day on 4 July.

For the Conservatives, the poll makes for grim reading, placing them down to 140 seats […] its worst result in the party’s history

The poll projects Labour to increase their seat tally in Parliament by 222, more than doubling its current representation, to a total of 422. This would surpass the two prior Labour landslides of history; Clement Attlee’s result in 1945, and Tony Blair’s result in 1997, seen as the complete redrawing of the electoral map carried out by New Labour.

For the Conservatives, the poll makes for grim reading, placing them down to 140 seats, losing 232, its worst result in the party’s history.

The party would face almost total annihilation in many regions, including London, but notably in the Northeast, and across the northern industrial communities of the “Red Wall”, areas won by Boris Johnson in 2019 that were traditionally Labour strongholds.

For the smaller parties, the Liberal Democrats were projected to quadruple their 2019 seat share, up from 11 to 48.

Strikingly, the Green Party is predicted to gain a seat from Labour, the constituency of Bristol Central, currently held by the shadow cabinet member Thangam Debbonaire. The win would represent the party’s second-ever MP.

While Labour’s performance dominates the prediction, the growth of the Liberal Democrats under Ed Davey warrants its own attention. Of particular note is its projected performance in what commentators have dubbed the “Blue Wall”, referring to rural, Conservative strongholds in the south of England.

The Liberal Democrats on current polling are projected to net significant gains in the area. Tory MPs at risk include none other than the Chancellor, Jeremy Hunt, who is projected to lose his seat of Godalming and Ash.

More locally to the University of Warwick, Labour is projected to hold all of its Coventry seats, increasing its average vote share across Coventry from 46.63% in 2019, up to 51.6%, accounting for boundary changes.

Similarly, in Warwick and Leamington, previous winner Matt Western, who won 43.8% in 2019, looks set to be re-elected under this projection, increasing his vote share to 54%. Conservative Jeremy Wright, in Kenilworth and Southam, who carried 57.7% of the vote in 2019, looks set to survive, but with a reduced share, down to 38%.

Anyone who is a candidate needs to inhale the optimism gas

Michael Gove, Housing Secretary

Whilst it has been stressed that this is only a poll, and the first of three of that, it would seem to confirm that chances of a Conservative win at the election are markedly against the odds.

The results have been met with dismay in some Conservative quarters. One Tory candidate speaking to The Telegraph lamented that they had been “thrown to the wolves” by the leadership’s decision to call a snap election.

Government figures, however, remain bullish. Michael Gove, the Housing Secretary, who is stepping down at the election, called on colleagues to ignore the polls. Speaking on Times Radio, he suggested that: “Anyone who is a candidate needs to inhale the optimism gas.”

Events since the poll was published, notably the return of Nigel Farage as Reform UK leader, make it likely that by the time of the next MRP poll, projections and results will have changed significantly.