General election year in ‘Broken Britain.’ 

The 2024 UK General Election seems to be a foregone conclusion, with Labour beating the Conservatives. Though this seems obvious, no ballots have yet been cast, and many would still argue there is still time for Sunak to turn things around.  This could happen, it is probably too late for the Conservatives — their time is up, and no ‘culture war’ can save them. However, this doesn’t mean it is set to be all sunshine and rainbows under Sir Keir Starmer. Any Starmer government will never be able to replicate the political mania of New Labour, however hard they try. Ultimately, the door will remain open to the populist far-right. 

There are three main issues that will shape the outcome of this election. Firstly, the economy. On the face of it, leaving a recession appears an achievement, but when realising growth in the last quarter was only 0.6 per cent, the Uk’s grave economic issues are clear. In addition to this, the cost-of-living crisis is still carries on. The Conservatives stumble here. Whilst many political commentators argue that the economic situation started due to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, millions have been struggling for over a decade. The effects of austerity, Brexit and Liz Truss’ failed Friedman-style experiment have finally come home to roost. This election is a reckoning for the Conservatives who have left many facing economic insecurity. 

This situation is useful for Labour, who have appealed to large sections of society struggling with the economic perma-crisis. However, Labour has one problem on the economy, namely, their new alliance with city business interests. This has created a dilemma for Starmer, whose own leadership campaign was focused on building on Jeremy Corbyn’s legacy as Labour leader. What direction Starmer decides to go is unclear, but I would point out that though Keir Starmer can present as many economic policies as he wants, upon entering office, he will face the same economic situation as the Conservatives. This situation can only be solved with tough decisions that would make any government unpopular. Perhaps imminent tax rises could be the starting point at which the new government unravels.  

This situation can only be solved with tough decisions that would make any government unpopular

There is also the “culture war” that has (supposedly) engulfed the UK. If this election will be anything, it will be an election based on cultural outlooks: the clash between regressive and progressive, as per the popular understanding. The “culture war” will be fought between the mainstream parties and the minor parties, whose influence has grown since the last election, as many turn to smaller parties to represent their view of society. I say this because both Labour and the Conservatives are “consensus” parties: they seek to maintain the status quo, large diversions from this typically upsets many within their broad-church parties. We have seen this before under Tony Blair, who promised democratisation and proportional representation. But this didn’t happen. Thus, it has fallen to smaller parties to push these issues. This year, small parties must challenge the mainstream discourse, though many argue that the notion of a culture war is misleading, the media portrayal of such a conflict will likely shape perceptions throughout the general election.  

Finally, there is a third topic that will shape the outcome of the election, but also the credibility of the next government, this topic is all about ‘trust’. We are told that the UK is a country of “small-C” conservatives, I would say this is true. Scandals involving lobbying, sexual assault and much more have shown the unsustainability of the “goodwill” mentality within British politics. I think it will be the lingering notion of “mates rates” that limits Sunak from clawing back credibility. Whilst many admired Boris Johnson’s jovial attitude, large sections of the electorate will never forgive his parties in Downing Street, or his repeated lies about them. I argue this is the crux of it, not the scandals themselves, but the endless lies given to the public. It is this issue of trust that weighs heavy for many in the electorate, and it is this that will stop Sunak from winning. 

So, is this Labour’s election to lose? Many would now argue that it is right to look to the future of British politics. The conclusion I would make is not one of ‘rainbows and unicorns’. As said previously, should Keir Starmer win the election, he will enter office in the same situation as the current Conservative government. However, whilst it appears the election is a foregone conclusion, I think it is necessary to investigate how others could impact the scale of any possible Labour victory, notably Reform UK and the Workers Party of Britain. Reform UK remains a threat to the Conservatives. Whilst the Workers Party leader, George Galloway, the recently elected MP for Rochdale does offer a home for many voters, those that can be described as “Old Labour”, a group that has been largely left behind by the contemporary Labour party machine.  

The right could grow ever more populist in its rhetoric, and rapidly turn public opinion away from the Starmer government

So, whilst many would say the election has already been decided, with regular twenty-point leads in the polls for Labour, and a Conservative Party in apparent disarray, we should keep in mind three things. Economic insecurity, a growing lack of trust in our political system and most importantly, a fundamentally broken Britain with no clear solutions. If this Starmer government fails to tackle the issues we all face, this could provide the perfect opportunity for the reordering of the right of British politics. The right could grow ever more populist in its rhetoric, and rapidly turn public opinion away from the ‘Starmer government’ towards a period of great instability.