The biggest election year in history is knocking at our door

It is not an understatement to say that global politics is in a tumultuous state; it is quite literally on a knife edge, with the smallest of changes potentially having huge, and possibly disastrous, impacts on the political landscape across the world. With two horrific wars waging on in Russia & Ukraine and the Middle East, the global economy facing challenge after challenge, and the rise of the far right in Europe and beyond, we are living through a time of much political change and uncertainty. And that uncertainty is about to become even more uncertain as we enter a bumper year of elections. With (at least) 40 elections, representing 41% of the world’s population and 42% of global GDP, change is coming – whether we like it or not.

Politicos, understandably, have their eye on what will possibly be the biggest election of 2024 – the US Presidential election in November. An important election, no doubt, but a whole year’s worth of elections will precede the potential rematch of Biden and Trump, beginning with the Taiwanese presidential election on 13th January. Taiwan’s election will act as an early reminder of the increasing globalisation of elections, a matter that has become increasingly important given the global nature of the pertinent events of the past few years, whether that be efforts to curb the spread of COVID-19 around the world, global solutions to climate change (as made clear recently by the COP28 agreement), or the role played by international players in current wars which look set to continue way into the new year and beyond. This being said, whilst the US election will shape global affairs come November, the presidential election in Taiwan may help to shape the US’s relations with China, with political commentators expecting tensions between the US and China to escalate further if the polls are correct and Lai Ching-te takes a step up to President from his current role as Vice President; one opposition politician has noted how this election could “open the doors to hell”.

The undermining of democracy will not be the only topic on the lips of political commentators throughout the election season next year but the rise of the far right will also continue to shape the political landscape

The election in Taiwan will only be the start of a year of elections that will have consequences which reverberate around the world. Despite the Russia-Ukraine war raging on, Russians are still set to head to the polls to elect their new President. Looking at the slate of candidates, it may seem like an opportunity for Russians who oppose the war to elect a new President, one who is anti-war and seeking a peaceful end to fighting. Boris Nadezhdin will run for the presidency under the backing of the Civic Initiative party, a party previously known by the name ‘Party of Changes’. Yet much like how Alexei Navalny is still barred from running for the presidency in Russia due to criminal convictions which have been widely regarded as politically motivated, Nadezhdin faces no opportunity of being elected with Russia’s election set to be neither free nor fair. Thus, Vladimir Putin is bound to win his fifth term in office, as Russia looks more to be a dictatorship than a democracy. Moreover, the next Ukrainian presidential election was also set to be held in 2024, but with law dictating that elections may not be held under martial law, it looks like Volodymyr Zelenskky will continue as Ukraine’s President for the foreseeable future. The war between these two countries will continue, headed by two presidents who do not look likely to change in 2024.

The undermining of democracy will not be the only topic on the lips of political commentators throughout the election season next year but the rise of the far right will also continue to shape the political landscape at a time where oppression, persecution, and racism permeate through global politics. The last few years have signalled a rise of the far right populism in Europe particularly, with the election victories of Geert Wilders in the Netherlands and Giorgia Meloni in Italy acting as two examples signalling this rise. With the need for increasing unity in the EU, as Ukraine’s application to join the union will continue to progress in 2024, elections of Wilders, Meloni, and the like raise questions as to whether support for Ukraine across Europe will continue strongly into 2024, again stressing the international importance of next year’s elections. Without a doubt, all eyes will be on Finland in January, as they head to the polls to elect their new President. As Russia’s neighbour, Finland has recently joined NATO, yet parliamentary elections this year could suggest that military support – and indeed wider support for issues like immigration and EU integration – are waning in the Nordic country, with Sanna Marin losing out on re-election as Prime Minister to a right-wing coalition, focused on budget cuts and anti-immigration and anti-EU policies. Will these views continue into the Presidential election? And indeed, could the election of a right-wing Finnish President signal the future election of governments and Presidents across Europe and beyond in 2024? The rise of the far right does not only mark a change in politics and leadership but it acts as a signal that there is a changing rhetoric and rising dangers for refugees seeking a haven in Europe and for residents who call Europe their home. With a continuing rise of the far right, people who have always called Europe home – or are seeking to call it their home – may be forced out, forced to flee, as they are persecuted in the countries they saw, often, as an escape from persecution.

The two major world powers could be left with polar opposite leaders – and somehow, they will have to collaborate and work together as the world seeks military support and economic stability from both the UK and the US

Yet, despite the rise of the far right, it is important to understand and realise that left-wing parties are not all but defeated as we enter the new year of elections. With the next UK general election set to take place in 2024, Starmer’s Labour has an 18-point lead in opinion polls over Sunak’s Conservatives, who look set to run their election campaign by exploiting the vulnerable – whether that be through their “Stop the Boats” campaign or by targeting LGBTQ+ individuals. Therefore, we could be seeing an end to nearly 14 years of Tory rule in the UK, proving that social democratic parties are still very much active in the political landscape of 2024 – if this proves anything, it proves that elections next year will be diverse, and certainly not delivering clear-cut results. On the other hand, Joe Biden is lagging behind Donald Trump in opinion polls in the US, despite Trump not even being selected as the presidential candidate for the Republicans yet. Two of the major world powers could be set to have two very different leaders. Whilst Starmer is set to support economic growth, renewable energy projects and funding for the NHS, Trump could be set to pursue more economic cuts, continued defunding for climate change efforts and further opposition to minority rights and abortion. The two major world powers could be left with polar opposite leaders – and somehow, they will have to collaborate and work together as the world seeks military support and economic stability from both the UK and the US.

With so many elections taking place next year, 2024 is set to be a year of uncertainty in politics. With each passing election, political experts will reassess the political landscape – one election of a far-right, anti-military spending President may be followed by the election of a government grounded in principles of economic support. Many questions hang in the balance – next year will be a tipping point for the global outlook of politics. Only time will tell what the bumper year of elections will bring and what it will mean for the political landscape when we reflect on the year of politics, this time in 12 months.