The two identities of Ahmed al-Sharaa: Which will shape Syria’s future?

On December 8 2024, Ahmed al-Sharaa, also known as Abu Mohammed al-Jolani, addressed a gathering at Damascus’s Umayyad Mosque. Having led the coalition that overthrew the Assad regime, he now stands at the centre of Syria’s uncertain future at the age of 42. He called for introspection, solidarity, and progress in his speech, hailing the occasion as a ‘victory for the Islamic nation.’

This enigmatic figure embodies two starkly contrasting identities: the soft-spoken medical student from Damascus and the hardened jihadist leader who once commanded militant forces in Idlib. Now that the Assad regime’s lengthy rule has come to a dramatic end, Sharaa’s most important task is to reconcile these conflicting identities in order to steer Syria’s future.  Is he the practical reformer setting aside his radical past, or is he simply putting on a show to gain international recognition, legitimacy and power? The answer to this question could determine whether Syria emerges from its ruins as a unified, stable nation or slips back into conflict and authoritarianism.

The Evolution of Ahmed al-Sharaa

Ahmed al-Sharaa’s life began in a prosperous neighbourhood in Damascus. He was raised in a forward-thinking family, did well in school, and studied medicine, giving the impression that he was a young man ready for a traditional career. But when he joined the jihadist insurgency against American forces in Iraq in the early 2000s, his life drastically changed. During this period, he adopted the nom de guerre Abu Mohammed al-Jolani, a reference to his family’s origins in the Golan Heights.

Widespread suppression of dissent, arbitrary detentions, and the installation of a sophisticated internal security system that kept tabs on both combatants and civilians were hallmarks of Sharaa’s rule in Idlib

Sharaa spent five years in detention camps run by the U.S., which many analysts regard as incubators of jihadist ideology. After being released, he rejoined the fledgling rebellion against the Assad government in Syria in 2011. He advanced swiftly through the ranks of militant organisations, initially joining al-Qaeda before splitting off to found Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), which eventually took control of Idlib. Over the next decade, Jolani established himself as a powerful and controversial figure, ruling a population of two million with an iron fist.

Widespread suppression of dissent, arbitrary detentions, and the installation of a sophisticated internal security system that kept tabs on both combatants and civilians were hallmarks of Sharaa’s rule in Idlib. Under his orders, journalists, activists and leaders of rival factions who opposed or even questioned HTS authority were imprisoned, tortured, or vanished. Civilians grew resentful of Sharaa’s administration due to their stringent social controls, such as the ‘morality police’ which was tasked with upholding conservative interpretations of Islamic law. These actions depict a leader who upheld power using fear and uncompromising control rather than popular support.

Nevertheless, in recent years, Sharaa’s course has appeared to change as his outreach to minority groups, his return to his birth name and his public appearances in plain military uniforms show an attempt to shed the ‘Jolani’ identity. Yet, the question remains: Is this transformation genuine or a calculated political manoeuvre?

Signs of Change

Sharaa worked hard to portray himself as more moderate in the months preceding the overthrow of the Assad government. Giving up the Jolani alias was a symbolic act that marked a departure from his previous life as a jihadist. His actions in the rebel-held territories of Idlib provide further evidence of a shift. Under his leadership, HTS established universities where women constituted more than 60% of the student body, a striking contrast to the rigid policies of groups like the Taliban.

During HTS’s offensive, Sharaa extended amnesty to regime foot soldiers, reassured Christian communities of their safety, and reached out to Kurdish leaders, declaring, ‘Diversity is a strength of which we are proud’. His administration promised to protect Syria’s minorities, including Ismaili Shia and Alawite communities, and to foster inclusivity in the drafting of a new constitution.

Sharaa has worked to create connections internationally. He proposed that the sanctions put in place during the Assad administration should be lifted as they punish the victims rather than the oppressors. He framed HTS as a nationalist movement as opposed to a jihadist force during meetings with diplomats, stressing the importance of reconstruction and national unity. These developments promisingly indicate real change, according to experts such as Shiraz Maher of King’s College London, who characterises Sharaa’s governance in Idlib as practical and stability-oriented.

The Jihadist Legacy

Despite these reforms, Sharaa’s past casts a long shadow over his leadership. According to his detractors, his recent moderation is not a true ideological shift but a calculated move meant to gain international legitimacy. Critics raise concerns regarding HTS’s past of authoritarian control in Idlib. Reports of torture and extrajudicial detentions continue with dissidents in the area being subject to severe crackdowns. Hardliners within HTS, including foreign fighters with ties to al-Qaeda and ISIS, present another challenge. Experts warn that Sharaa’s seeming change could alienate these groups, which could result in internal dissension or the rise of extremist groups. Sharaa has also raised doubts about the extent of his change by continuing to fly a jihadist flag alongside Syria’s revolutionary banner when making public appearances.

Hussain Abdul-Hussain of the Foundation for the Defence of Democracy warns, ‘The country is a shambles. There is no economy, no money. Now everyone is happy, but sooner or later, things are going to get real, and my fear is that he turns back to his Islam’.

The Diverging Futures of Syria

Syria is at a turning point under Sharaa’s rule. On the one hand, a pragmatic and inclusive Syria seems possible. A vision of Syria as a state centred on national stability rather than ideological purity has been suggested by Sharaa’s recent assurances to minority groups, his emphasis on repairing the nation’s economy and his calls for international dialogue. Syria could start the challenging process of reconstruction if he can gain international recognition, remove sanctions and draw in foreign investment. Diplomatic efforts, including dialogue with Turkey, Qatar and Jordan, indicate that regional actors are cautiously optimistic about his leadership.

Global stakeholders are watching closely. The result will be determined not only by Sharaa’s actions but also by how outside forces, including the US, Russia, and Turkey, either help or hinder Syria’s transition.

However, the darker possibility remains that Sharaa will return to authoritarian control under the guise of religion. Given his prior behaviour as Jolani and the continued influence of hardline HTS factions, there remains a chance that Syria could become a strict Islamist state. Idlib’s governance under HTS was characterised by strict control, censorship and religious policing. This strategy risks alienating important minority groups, leading to new cycles of violence if implemented nationally.

Global stakeholders are watching closely. The result will be determined not only by Sharaa’s actions but also by how outside forces, including the US, Russia, and Turkey, either help or hinder Syria’s transition.

The Road Ahead

Ahmed al-Sharaa’s leadership represents a critical juncture for Syria. He represents the conflict between reform and rigidity as a man with two identities. Whether Syria returns to conflict and repression or moves towards unity and stability will depend significantly on his actions in the upcoming months.

Ultimately, the question remains: Can a leader with such a fractured past truly reconcile his dual identities for the greater good of his nation? For now, Syrians, along wih the rest of the world, can only watch and hope.