Why did Britain vote Brexit? Warwick study says older generation not to blame

New research from the University of Warwick indicates that Brexit was a “cry of financial pain,” rather than the result of the elderly turning out in vast numbers for Leave.

The paper argues that generalised discontent in the country was not the main factor that determined the outcome of the referendum, as previously believed.

It suggests that what swayed the British public to vote for Brexit was instead their anxiety about personal finances. Those who felt they were in a difficult financial situation were 13% more likely to be in favour of leaving the European Union than those who felt better-off.

Andrew Oswald, Professor of Economics and Behavioural Science at Warwick and one of the authors of the paper, said in a statement: “People’s feelings – about how their own wallet had been performing – determined how they voted. I am not sure Brexit was greatly about principle. It was more a cry of financial pain.”

He told The Boar, “A key finding that is new, apart from the one on feelings, is that people have wrongly believed that Brexit was forced on us by the old.”

I am not sure Brexit was greatly about principle. It was more a cry of financial pain.
Andrew Oswald

This new evidence suggests the voting views of 35-year-olds, 55-year-olds, and 75-year-olds were quite similar. Only the very young were heavily against Brexit.

The study also revealed a slight disparity in voting preference based on gender and ethnicity. Women were 6% more likely to vote Remain, whereas those identifying as white British were 6% more likely to vote Leave.

There was a large discrepancy between the voting habits of those who did or did not have a university degree. Overall, degree-holders were 16% more likely to have supported the Remain campaign.

On the other hand, being unemployed, unmarried, or having children had no statistically significant effect on voting tendency.

Researchers also detected greater momentum for the Leave movement during a desperate last push in the final weeks of the referendum campaign, as the proportion of those voting to Leave picked up steadily. The study also indicated that many people were undecided right up until polling day.

A lot of my research has been on how happiness and unhappiness influences choices.
Andrew Oswald

The study had a sample size of approximately eight thousand participants, and measured their views daily in the run-up to last year’s referendum.

Researchers attempted to measure ‘discontent’ by asking participants to rate their satisfaction with life on a seven-point scale, ranging from “completely dissatisfied” to “completely satisfied.” Participants in the survey were also asked to subjectively rate their own financial situation.

These two key data sets allowed researchers to analyse satisfaction with life quality and financial situation respectively.

There has been very little research into the psychological reasons for Brexit. Professor Oswald said, “I got the idea because a lot of my research has been on how happiness and unhappiness influences choices.”

In the wake of the referendum result, a series of motivations for voting Leave have been suggested, some of which are included at the beginning of the study. The authors of the paper believe their research will “build upon a small but growing literature” about the reasons for the referendum result.