Austerity caused Brexit, say Warwick academics

Austerity, rather than immigration, was the main reason people voted Leave in the EU referendum in June, according to a paper published by academics from Warwick’s Economics department.

A small reduction in government cuts could have swung the referendum result, the paper suggests, while a comparatively large reduction in immigration levels would have been required to have the same effect.

The report, entitled ‘Who Voted for Brexit? A Comprehensive District-Level Analysis’, claims that “fundamental characteristics of the voting population” were more responsible for the Leave vote than short-term campaigning.

These fundamental characteristics were identified as age and education level of voters, as well as the impact of fiscal cuts under the last government’s austerity measures. Migration was also significant, but “only from Eastern European countries, not from older EU states or non-EU countries.”

A small reduction in government cuts could have swung the referendum result, the paper suggests, while a comparatively large reduction in immigration levels would have been required to have the same effect.

The report has been touted by left-wing news website The Canary as revealing “the real reason for Brexit”. However the mainstream media, according to The Canary, has ignored the report’s findings.

But the authors of the report told the Boar: “We have not actively promoted the paper as yet. So it is a bit early to say how the media have responded.”

The authors also state that “back-of-the-envelope calculations” were used to reach the conclusion that a reduction in austerity would have done more to swing the vote than a reduction in immigration.

“We do not attempt to make causative claims,” they said, “and carefully try to explain in our paper what statements we think our data can support and why.”

The paper was written by Sascha O. Becker, Thiemo Fetzer and Dennis Novy and can be read here.