The Power of Saudi Arabia

[dropcap]S[/dropcap]audi Arabia occupies an awkward position within Western imagination. The Gulf state is often considered either a reliable ally on the cusp of reform or a throwback to medieval barbarity.

The supposed purity of our liberal ethics are used as a stick to beat the Gulf States, and often ourselves, with.

December witnessed this paradox in action: in the same week women were granted the right to vote in local elections for the first time, 47 suspected ‘terrorists’ were brutally executed. The Persian Gulf has since become a tinderbox of tension, inflamed by the execution of Sheikh Nimr al-Nimr. He was the figurehead of the oppressed Shia minority in Saudi Arabia and, crucially, an Ayatollah with a pan-Arabic resonance. Most commentary on this issue has been awash with guilt about our dubious relationship with the Saudis and, tangentially, our unquenchable lust for oil. The supposed purity of our liberal ethics are used as a stick to beat the Gulf States, and often ourselves, with.

Whilst I resist the temptation to enter into a frenzied tirade of self-flagellation, and without wishing to become an apologist for Saudi Arabia, this purely humanitarian dimension has obscured more fundamental issues at play. It impedes us from seeing this developing story for what it is – a regional issue with the potential to alight another Arab Spring. Saudi Arabia has managed to stave off an uprising but remains hypersensitive to any sign of heresy or nonconformity. Al-Nimrwas convicted of sedition as a graphic  example of what can befall critics under anti-terrorism laws codified in February 2015.

Wahhabi clerics form the moral and political lifeblood of Saudi Arabia, and their dubious influence classifies the Arab power more as a radical theocracy than an absolutist monarchy of King Al-Saud.

Saudi Arabia and Iran support opposing sides in the Syrian and Yemeni civil wars, which are arguably proxy wars between them. The issue of al-Nimr being either a terrorist or merely a political dissident embodies this political disjuncture raging between them.This forms the political basis for the fomenting anger in the region which culminated in the siege of the Saudi embassy in Tehran and the severing of diplomatic ties. This cannot be simplified to political sand-slinging across the Persian Gulf – it represents a step-change in Middle Eastern relations.Saudi Arabia is playing agent provocateur by wilfully propagating sectarian passions between Sunni and Shia Islam in a bid for regional supremacy over Iran, their arch-rivals. Wahhabi clerics form the moral and political lifeblood of Saudi Arabia, and their dubious influence classifies the Arab power more as a radical theocracy than an absolutist monarchy of King Al-Saud. Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei urged a “divine revenge” for the execution of al-Nimr, considered a “martyr”, but whom Saudi Foreign Minister Adel al- Jubeir compared to Osama Bin Laden with religion merely colouring his subversive activities.

Both claim to be the standard-bearer of the correct version of Islam, which acts as a framework for the legitimacy of both states. Sudan and the UAE, both Sunni powers, are in lockstep with Saudi Arabia by similarly breaking diplomatic ties with Iran. The question is whether tensions will spread to Iraq, Lebanon and Bahrain, which have significant Shia populations. The context is a price war between oil-producing states. The Iran nuclear deal has softened international opinion and removed economic sanctions. The threat of cheap Iranian oil risks making Saudi energy subsidies of 13% and lavish welfare unsustainable, jeopardising domestic stability.

For our part, the tangled realities of the Middle East do not afford us the luxury of selecting allies according to moral criteria. Saudi Arabia has been anointed as an ally in the region and, regardless of desirability, cannot realistically be cast into oblivion.