Tête à Tête: Is UKIP still “on course to be a force” in the next general election?
Yes
Such are the vagaries of Britain’s bizarre first-past-the-post voting system that the party currently polling third with around 13%, the UK Independence Party (UKIP) could end up with no seats at the 2015 general election, and the fourth-placed party, the Liberal Democrats, could win around twenty with their current 9% of the vote. So it may seem strange to suggest that UKIP are on course to be ‘a force’ in 2015. But it depends how you look at it.
The majority of UKIP’s support comes from disgruntled Conservative voters in the South of England, annoyed with the party’s apparently more liberal instincts nowadays, feeling that David Cameron has betrayed the party’s values on issues such as gay marriage, renewable energy, immigration and defence. They also garner some support from disaffected Labour voters in the North, and some from people who do not normally vote at all. But these two latter groups are not nearly as significant.
UKIP are still on course to be a force in 2015: not by winning seats, but by stopping the Tories winning and putting Ed Miliband in Downing Street.
Very often, the Westminster commentariat acts as a glorified echo chamber. ‘Labour in Crisis!’ read a thousand headlines, despite that party’s solid poll lead. ‘Conservatives oversee economic recovery!’ go some more, despite it being unclear who is benefiting from a potential house price boom, falling living standards and insecure jobs. ‘Lib Dems set for wipe-out!’ is the received wisdom, despite evidence that they actually do rather well at holding seats where they already have a big presence (see the Eastleigh by-election).
The constant reference to nationwide opinion polls maintains this. Due to the aforementioned voting system, it sadly does not matter what people think in solidly Labour or Conservative seats. The election will be won or lost in a few marginal seats. And the most recent polling of these by Lord Ashcroft is eye-opening.
In the 32 seats in which Labour came the closest behind the Tories in 2010, Labour is on 43%, down one since 2010, the Conservatives 29% (down six), UKIP 11% and the Lib Dems on 8%. Given that 60% of UKIP’s support is gained from 2010 Tory voters, it is not hard to see that UKIP’s vote share is seriously affecting the result.
Of course, the irony of UKIP, based in the idea that the modern Conservative Party is not right-wing enough, depriving the Tories of the votes they need to get over the line in 2015 is doubtless not lost on some at Tory HQ. But many UKIPpers don’t care; they’d rather make their point than keep Cameron in office. UKIP are still on course to be a force in 2015: not by winning seats, but by stopping the Tories winning and putting Ed Miliband in Downing Street.
No
The recent surge in support for UKIP is an undeniable fact; the party did indeed take a large proportion of votes in May’s local elections. But success in 2015 is not a self-fulfilling prophecy. Much can change in two years (remember Harold Wilson’s saying that “a week is a long time in politics”?). Already the political landscape is markedly different to what it was five months ago and current trends suggest that UKIP will soon return to its place on the fringes, peeking into the arena of serious government.
This is mainly because – maybe – the economy is finally getting better. Since the 2008 crash, many have felt that the main parties are equally incompetent when it comes to money matters. For too long, Labour denied the need for cuts, while the new conservative government went too far and hurt the living standards of society’s most vulnerable members, as well as constraining the economy’s capacity for growth. People were forced to look elsewhere.
People do not view UKIP as a serious party
Now that things are looking up, however, this may change. A majority of new UKIP supporters are just disgruntled conservatives, and are likely to return to their former party if it seems to be enjoying some success. This is especially true given the recent prominence in the media of the conservatives’ anti-immigration policies – particularly the vans bearing ‘go home’ which were driven around heavily immigrant areas of London.
Even their most pressing concern – withdrawing the UK from the EU – has been addressed by Cameron’s promise of a referendum on the country’s membership, should he win the election. The traditional conservative supporters right now feel they are being listened to and are flooding back, away from UKIP’s eccentricities, and the referendum gives them a strong incentive to make sure Cameron stays in power.
It is also important to remember that it is mathematically difficult for UKIP to do well in a general election, regardless of circumstance. This is because Britain’s electoral system is based on constituencies, meaning support for a party must be strong in a particular area for it to win the associated seat.
Labour and the conservatives benefit from this, UKIP and other small parties lose out because their support tends to be spread out. Thus, even if UKIP remains popular, it will probably only get one or two seats. We are not about to see the end of Britain’s odd two-and-a-half-party system.
Perhaps most importantly, people do not view UKIP as a serious party. They are the darling of the protest voter; fine for elections for the European Parliament or the local council, but not suitable to play a part in grown-up Westminster politics.
Come 2015 Nigel Farage won’t be holding a ministerial briefing box – he’ll still be clutching a pint.
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Header Image Courtesy of: Flickr/Euro Realist Newsletter
Comments (13)
“People do not view UKIP as a serious party ” and pray tell me what gives you the right to assume that. I along with every member of my family, all my work colleagues, in fact just about everyone that I know, will be voting for UKIP. We have no intention of going back to the tories or labour. I see UKIP as a very serious party so much so that many of us have joined UKIP where before we had never belonged to a political party. The tide is turning in England and believe me it is serious, our childrens and grandchildrens future is at stake cannot get more important or serious than that, Clutching a pint, you bet
The article started off well then bombed, most if not nearly all Ukippers know the Cameron referendum pledge is a sham, we also know that there is no difference between the three parties, the economic recovery is a weak & amaemic affair spluttering along due to the weak coalition, even if ukip fail to make the breakthrough its enough to deprive the liberal tories of victory & see Cameron humbled, our aim is to grow & that is what will happen, you cant turn back the tide!
UKIP is very different now, the change, even since May, is only starting to be seen. Many thousands of new members and activists have joined and not just because of the EU and open door immigration. Our concerns are far broader and our branch based structure much more democratic than other parties. We are no longer mainly disgruntled Tories, rather an alliance of ordinary people, reluctant politicians, who have decided the existing political establishment are uninterested in the country or it’s people and that we can do a far better job ourselves. May was just the start. You can’t judge us by the usual electoral standards, we’re not left, right or center, we will happily adopt policy from any side, as long as it’s what’s best for the country. We have no large backers, no huge donations from capital or unions, we pay our own electoral expenses. There’s no big central staff, the work’s done by volunteers in the branches, who have great autonomy.
You’ve seen nothing yet.
Greetings icni : As much as I would like to see the main parties knocked off balance, there are a few issues I am wondering if UKIP are going to address.Firstly being immigration and the ethnic salvation of the British people, because even UKIP’s immediate five year freeze, our people are still set to become a minority in the not too distant futureAre the UKIP prepared to take the steps necessary to ensure this doesn’t happen? Also are UKIP going to address the growing influence of Islam in the UK? For example; not allowing any more mosques to be built and deporting anyone suspected of taking part in militant activities.Does the UKIP believe that the fractional reserve banking system believe the fractional reserve banking system is the best method for our economy? Finally, how will UKIP address our overpopulation issue, simply put, we don’t have the space, facilities and infrastructure to cope with an ever expanding population. Any information you could provide regarding these issues would be gratefully received.
the 5 year freeze is to give time to sift through the system and eject the 3-4 million EU & other citizens in the UK without a visa. this will greatly relieve the pressure on services and housing.
as for mosques etc, UKIP is not the EDL or the BNP. we have no issue with anyone of any colour or creed provided they accept British culture and laws. Those who do not will be rounded up and ejected regardless of where they come from or which god they pray to. This is the British way.
Our objectives in this regard are firm & quite clear; you can view them as laid out in the recent party conference:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8__KC93unB0&list=UUurltq-zCm89FNhkH9k5RZw
There are forces at work that even UKIP don’t have the teeth to deal with. Survival instincts will be the deciding determinant.
Just like the other parties we’re still working on policy for the 2015 manifesto. It’s quite possible for UKIP members to influence policy via their branch. Of course people have to join the party first, or at least attend local branch meetings, you can get in as a guest. You do have to understand however that we are concerned with representing ALL our electors, irrespective of race, origin or creed and that we believe in freedom of religion. Many established groups of “ethnic” origin feel just as strongly as we do about constant and heavy waves of open door, uncontrolled immigration, illegals and criminals being allowed to remain and other UKIP policies. We do not however favor multiculturalism, we prefer integration. As for Mosques, that’s a matter for individual branches/councillors and would depend on local planning conditions. Our duty is to vote as our electors wish and this could include allowing them to be built. There would be no blanket ban and personally I would oppose one.
Don’t pin any hopes on Ukippers having a change of heart in 2015,by then immigration will be the key point of the election and there is only one solution and that is to leave the EU.
“Cameron’s promise of a refurendum on the country’s membership, I should he win the election”…. Didn’t he give an “iron cast” guarantee llat the last election?
Fool me once, shame on you.Fool me twice, shame on me – as the saying goes. God, we must have the most gullible electorate in the modern world, how they must laugh at us..” Grown up Westminster politics”? Do me a favour, we are ruled by bunch of parasites who, if allowed to continue, will destroy us for good .Well done you dim witted white middle classes, you are sealing our fate.
we don’t need the BNP. never have, never will
We want the same thing but clearly you think that you can still be “British” whether you’re African, Pakistani or an Iraqi. Your inability to distinguish and your ‘nice and safe’ politically correct lack of pride in standing up for own identity proves you will need the BNP whether you realise it or not. What will UKIP matter when this “new Britishness” decides that you are not British and this is not your home? Demographics is destiny my friend, and it’s no good waving your little flag, singing the national anthem and sticking your finger up to the “racist little englanders” because it’ll soon enough become irrelevant.The elephant is still in the room and you arrogant, tweed blazer wearing white middle/upper class still have lessons to learn.
They used to say UKIP polled well but would never win local elections in any serious number. In the next couple of years UK politics will be transformed forever. Let’s hope it’s peaceful and democratic. Vote UKIP.
We will see, either way cameron will go.