Help beating the ballot box blues

“Birds of a feather vote together.” Cartoon by Charley-Kai John

One of the many bizarre inconsistencies about this university is that it is in two different counties. The border between the West Midlands and Warwickshire actually runs through campus, so – if you live in Cryfield, Lakeside, Sherbourne or Heronbank – you’ll be able to vote in the Warwickshire county council elections. Basically, if you are likely to be assaulted by a flock of geese, you should receive a polling card.

Election turnout amongst students is notoriously bad, being consistently the worst amongst all age cohorts (apart from the under-18s, obviously). Because of this, it’s much easier for politicians to pick on people our age. Why is it, for example, that cuts to universities and benefits that generally go to the young have borne the brunt of the government’s austerity programme, whilst pensioners still enjoy universal benefits such as the winter fuel allowance (which doesn’t even have to be spent on fuel)? The answer is turnout.

So, with that exhortation to vote over with, let’s take a look at the runners and riders in this year’s contest. Although local elections are sometimes fought on local issues, obviously, more often than not they act as a barometer of public opinion with the national government. With that in mind, the mindset of the Conservatives going into these elections will be one of damage control. Trailing in the polls, and a long way from their high of the 2009 local elections, when they turned the map into a sea of blue (and increased their hold on Warwickshire), the governing party will be judged more by the scale of their losses. A moderate dip could be seen as a success for David Cameron, and would strengthen his leadership in the face of rumoured leadership plots and a rising challenge from UKIP.

And it is indeed to Nigel Farage’s merry band that we turn next. The right-wing party have never been in a stronger position, and polling up to 17% in some reports, UKIP will be hoping to get themselves on the map (2009 was before they were cool, so only a handful of right-wing hipsters opted for them then). While the first-past-the-post system at Westminster is a problem for them, the smaller seats and multi-member constituencies could present them with an opportunity. Laid out on paper, UKIP’s policies don’t make much sense, but as a sheer force of protest, they represent a growing sense of anti-establishment anger.

If the Conservatives are definitely in government, then the Liberal Democrats sort of are. Being in fourth place in the polls and with single-digit support has made the rewards of power look somewhat dubious for Nick Clegg’s party, and their retention of the Eastleigh parliamentary seat was a rare success. Normally, though, Lib Dem results in this parliament are either ‘bad’ or ‘terrible’, and Clegg will be hoping that it’s the former this time around, for the sake of his leadership at least.

A man whose leadership is not under threat, but still remains under pressure to deliver, is Ed Miliband. Labour have a fairly solid poll lead and can claim to have been right about the economic situation, but in many ways the easy part of opposition is over. The party still trail the Conservatives on the crucial issue of economic competence, and with two years left until the general election, it is arguably time for Labour to start unveiling their flagship policies. Miliband’s grand idea of a new economic settlement is an impressive one, but needs to be translated into policies on the ground. The uniform swing should see Miliband and co make significant gains in these elections, but to make sure of taking power in Westminster, not to mention having a plan of what to do once there (cf. poor old Francois Hollande in France) a full, credible programme will need to be laid out.

So, that’s the lay of the land going into the 2nd May vote. The vote in Warwickshire last time mirrored the national picture, with the Conservatives topping the poll and Labour pushed into third. It will be interesting to see whether the same is true this time. And whilst if you’ve ever read any of my columns, you’ll know who I think you should vote for, this is the most important thing of all: just vote.