NFL: unpredictable and entertaining

Ah, American football – it’s not real football, is it? It’s more like rugby, but the players have more protection and each match takes about five hours. And it’s American. It can’t be that good, can it?

Well, actually, yes, it can. I am a recent convert – last season was my first, although even then I largely followed from a distance, watching occasional matches and keeping an eye on who was doing well and who wasn’t.

But after taking the time to understand the intricacies and nuances of the game, I ended the season incredibly excited by my new discovery.

It helped that the two Championship Games – the Super Bowl semi-finals, to those who aren’t familiar – and the Super Bowl were all excellent games, but the problem is they are the last three games of the season, and the NFL off-season is huge, stretching from February to September.

But that isn’t to say that nothing happens. It has been quite a dramatic off-season already, and with the draft to come, things are taking shape quite nicely for another unpredictable NFL season.

The first thing to note is that NFL contracts run until the end of the season, rather than to particular dates like in “our” football. This gives the NFL season a particular point-to-point feel.

If coaches are sacked, they are usually sacked on “Black Monday”, the first Monday after the final regular season matches in December – this year, eight of the 32 head coaches were fired almost simultaneously, not to mention the dismissals of various other coaches and General Managers (essentially the equivalent to the Director of Football).

If players are released, they all become available on the same day, which leads to a mad dash for available players like an inverse transfer deadline day.

This year, March 12th was the start of free agency and some interesting moves have already been made. It is worth bearing in mind that perhaps the most prominent free agent remained with his team – Super Bowl MVP Joe Flacco re-signed with the Baltimore Ravens with a massive $120 million 6-year deal, the largest in the NFL.

His contract is a product of its time – the Ravens needed to retain Flacco, because although he isn’t the best QB in the NFL, this year’s crop of players in the draft for that position is not as strong as in previous years, so a capable replacement would have been difficult to find.

The lack of a star QB in the draft also has implications for last year’s strugglers. The Kansas City Chiefs, who will pick first in the draft after winning only 2 games last year, decided to act early and traded for the San Francisco 49ers’ Alex Smith, who finished the season as back-up to Colin Kaepernick despite impressive performances early on.

The Chiefs are now expected to pick Texas A&M offensive tackle Luke Joeckel as the first pick, but the rest of the draft seems to be totally unpredictable. The highest-rated QB, West Virginia’s Geno Smith, could be drafted anywhere between 2nd and 10th, as there are several teams that need to improve that position but may not gamble on an erratic youngster.

USC’s Matt Barkley may also be picked early, but there are question marks about his ability, while others like Ryan Nassib, EJ Manuel and Mike Glennon are expected to be picked within the first two or three rounds.

But for teams like the Jacksonville Jaguars, the Arizona Cardinals and the Buffalo Bills, who may draft one of these or stick it out with one of their current QBs, the next season is likely to be as difficult as the last.

Free agency itself has seen the focus on a small number of teams involved in several trades, with most teams remaining relatively quiet.

One team to make a big splash (excuse the pun) is the Miami Dolphins, who made an immediate leap (excuse that one too) for Pittsburgh Steelers wide receiver Mike Wallace, regarded as one of the top free agents on the market.

They also signed linebackers Philip Wheeler and Dannell Ellerbe, tight end Dustin Keller and wide receiver Brandon Gibson. To make way for these, they have released a number of their big name players, including offensive tackle and former number 1 draft pick Jake Long, running back Reggie Bush and linebackers Karlos Dansby and Kevin Burnett.

They will certainly be one of the teams to watch come September, although these moves are no guarantee they will improve on last year’s 7-9 record.

It’ll certainly be difficult for them to beat the New England Patriots, who have dominated the AFC East division over the last few years. But they have not been immune to losses, with lead wide receiver Wes Welker heading to the Denver Broncos, swapping Tom Brady’s passes for Peyton Manning’s. The St Louis Rams’ Danny Amendola has been brought in as a replacement.

As for the Broncos, they were involved in one of the strangest events of free agency so far, as they were forced to cut Elvis Dumervil after the linebacker’s agent faxed the paperwork for his new contract six minutes after the deadline for restructuring contracts.

Dumervil has since joined the reigning champions, who sorely needed a boost – with Ray Lewis retiring after the Super Bowl victory, the Ravens lost experienced safety Ed Reed to the Houston Texans, Bernard Pollard to the Tennessee Titans, Dannell Ellerbe to the Dolphins and Paul Kruger to the Cleveland Browns, as well as trading wide receiver Anquan Boldin to the 49ers.

The additions of Dumervil, Oakland Raiders safety Michael Huff and the New York Giants’ Chris Canty should ensure the exodus won’t hurt them too much, but back-to-back titles are unlikely.
Having said that, it remains difficult to tell who the favourites are going to be. The draft, further trades and the schedule are all in the future and will play their part in shaping the season.

The usual suspects are expected to contend – the 49ers, generally regarded as the most talented team in the NFL, have strengthened over the off-season, but could face a challenge in NFC West from the Seattle Seahawks, now with the fire power of former Minnesota Vikings wide receiver Percy Harvin.

Meanwhile, the Green Bay Packers, led by 2011 NFL MVP Aaron Rodgers, will be favourites for NFC North despite the loss of veterans Charles Woodson, Greg Jennings and Donald Driver, though the Vikings, including 2012 MVP Adrian Peterson, and the Chicago Bears remain a threat.

The Washington Redskins will battle the Giants and the Dallas Cowboys in NFC East providing explosive young QB Robert Griffin III continues his recovery from his serious knee injury. The Atlanta Falcons, who made great strides last year, will contend with Drew Brees’ New Orleans Saints, with head coach Sean Payton returning after his 2012 ban, in NFC South.

The AFC seems to be slightly weaker than the NFC but the Patriots remain perennial contenders as long as Tom Brady is running the show. The Houston Texans, so often dominant during the regular season, will be looking to make their first Super Bowl, but will face competition in the AFC South from the improved Indianapolis Colts, guided by young QB Andrew Luck.

The Pittsburgh Steelers, twice champions in the last decade, will be looking to avenge a disappointing 2012, though they have to get past the Ravens and the Cincinnati Bengals. And you can never write off Peyton Manning and the Broncos, who ended the regular season in incredible form before being beaten by the Ravens in a thrilling match in the play-offs.

And this sums up the biggest attraction of the NFL – the structure, the draft and the salary cap make it one of the most competitive sport championships on the planet. It is very difficult to establish a dynasty, and, as the cliché goes, on any given Sunday, any team can beat another – you could make a case for at least half of the league lifting the Vince Lombardi Trophy at the MetLife Stadium in February 2014. This is a golden era for the NFL, and with two games at Wembley this year, it has never been a better time to become a fan in Britain.