Slippery as a wet Scottish Salmond

Scotland and England have never been harmonious neighbours. This is reflected in an archaic verse of England’s national anthem that tasks the King with having “Rebellious Scots to crush.” Despite their differences, they were united in 1707 and went on to form the largest empire the earth has ever known, during which there was no questioning Scotland’s position in Great Britain.

Since the decline of the Empire there has been less reason for Scotland to remain united with Britain, and since the 1970s the Scottish Nationalist movement has been slowly gaining momentum. Alex Salmond is the William Wallace of the modern age. There is a thin line between Holyrood and Hollywood, but Mel Gibson has that magazine-front-page vibe, and Salmond has that bloke-you’d-meet-down-the pub vibe. He is certainly a warrior, having fought for the Scottish National Party for over three decades. This begs the question: would the England-Scotland union be in this predicament if it wasn’t for a certain Mr. Salmond?

Often dubbed the canniest politician in the UK, Salmond was named ‘Politician of the Year’ by the Political Studies Association in 2011. Since he became Scotland’s First Minister in 2007, the SNP has brought in swathes of pro-Scottish legislation. In May 2011, they won a staggering victory at Holyrood, despite a voting system that is designed to prevent any single party gaining dominance.

Westminster’s three main parties have united in an attempt to save the union – surely the might of hundreds of years of experience is enough to take on a small nationalist party? Yet Westminster has floundered at every hurdle, playing into the hands of the SNP. Cameron has become nervous, struggling despite his devotion to preserving the union. Salmond is one of the sleekest political operators around; having been at the forefront of Scottish politics for almost as long as Cameron has been alive, he knows how to play the game.

Cameron’s initial approach was that of an attack dog – although less bulldog and more rabid chihuahua. Having initially tried to discredit the idea of an independence referendum by saying it was illegal, the Coalition then tried to intervene in the timing and wording of the referendum. It had to be held in 18 months, and could only be a ‘Yes’/‘No’ referendum, without a ‘third option’ of Devo-max; full fiscal autonomy for Scotland. Salmond passed this off as London setting the terms of the Scottish people’s future, and specified that it had to be a referendum designed in Scotland. There was a hasty U-turn in London, and the SNP got their wish.

Cameron has now taken a more sentimental approach, remarking that this union of British nations is the greatest in the history of the earth. However, his rhetoric soon descended into juvenility when, at PMQ’s, he responded to a query on the referendum with, “They don’t want a referendum; they want a never-end-um,” a statement that clearly took a lot of time to think up. We’d better get printing some new maps now.

Compare this to Salmond’s cool, calm and collected approach: he appears on top of the debate, even when he is actually on the back foot. The hysteria of Westminster compared to the composure north of the border is as powerful as any speech in favour of independence.

Salmond knows independence is a far from foregone conclusion with a minority supporting secession. The SNP has to be tactical. For example, they intend to open up the referendum to 16 and 17 year olds, a calculated move that presumes young people will be less sentimental towards the union.

Timing is also crucial: the autumn of 2014 will be the 700th anniversary of the Battle of Bannockburn, where Scotland gained its freedom from England in 1314. This is Salmond’s preferred date, hoping to sway the referendum on a wave of national euphoria (although he could be taking a punt on Scotland winning the World Cup in Brazil).

With only around a third of Scots currently supporting it, Scottish Independence is uncertain, but Westminster seems set on making it more of a certainty. There are still nearly two years to go and no one should underestimate Salmond’s determination. He knows his game and is holding his cards close to his chest; the question is whether Westminster can call his bluff.

Whatever the outcome, a seismic shift in Scotland’s relationship with the rest of the Union has taken place: London won’t call the shots in Scotland anymore.