Jumping off the Milibandwagon: game over for the Labour leader?

_Should the Labour Party dump Ed Miliband before the next General Election?_

Frankie: No! Quite simply, it would be a disaster for the party, and a loss for the country.

Matt: Did you actually say that with a straight face?

F: Absolutely.

M: I’m amazed that as a Labour Party supporter you’re that content with Ed leading you to your demise at the next election.

F: Well see, this is the myth: what demise? He’s actually a point up in most recent polls, or at least even, before the worst of these coalitions cuts have even kicked in. And even Osborne is only estimating growth to be at 0.7% in 2012 – a figure that will further test the public patience for this government.

M: Labour might be a point up in reaction against perceived cuts, but come election time the country elects a leader, which Ed Miliband is not. The public hates him: 17% see him as fit to lead. 17%! As the economy recovers and the election comes closer it’ll get harder and harder to ditch him.

F: Well, this whole ‘Is he a leader?’ debate is as false as it is pointless. According to a poll by the Daily Mail, hardly a utopia for progressive thought, 58% think his policies are right for the country. He’s articulating a clear vision of responsible capitalism that appeals right across the political spectrum; that matters far more than whether you think he’s a ‘leader’ or not. What does that even mean? Would you like him to wear nicer suits?

M: That would be a start, although I think even that won’t save Ed. What are exactly the right policies for the country? All three parties are signed up to this austerity agenda, so it comes down to who is the most Prime Ministerial, which you have to concede, surely. Which leader does he remind you of at this stage? Neil Kinnock? Ian Duncan Smith?

F: Actually, his poll ratings are pretty comparable to Cameron’s at this stage in his leadership, and the IDS comparisons are ridiculous. IDS couldn’t appeal because his views were so out of touch with mainstream opinion; Ed Miliband is doing a better job of tapping into the new centre ground of public opinion than any other leader. However, I think the wider point is that you go for the same ‘cult of the leader’ argument that so many of Ed’s critics are peddling.

M: What is the current centre ground? Fairness? Responsible capitalism? It is clear that all three parties are occupying it – even Ed’s unions say he’s copying the Tories on issues such as public sector pay. The only difference will be his leadership and having favourable media coverage, which is simply impossible as Ed currently seems to be alienating his colleagues, the media and the public.

F: You’ve got the same obsession as the media over every poll or short-term setback. These guys are leaders of political parties, not football managers that can be discarded at will. Journalists and bloggers love nothing more than whisperings about a leadership change, but the point is the public don’t have time for this stuff – they don’t care. Come 2015, we’re still going to be mired in economic trouble with high unemployment, high inflation and falling living standards; all the electorate will worry about is who has the right vision to turn it around.

M: Even if he has the right policies, his problem stems from being perceived to be in the pockets of the unions, which are the only reason for his election anyway. Fairly or unfairly, his position is untenable. Either he loses union support by occupying this centre ground or he shifts the party towards the left, a move which the public won’t accept seeing as there is a public acceptance of austerity cuts.

F: So you think he’s either too in the pockets of the unions or not enough? You should be giving him credit for taking on the vested interests of his party’s purse strings – Cameron wouldn’t dare to pull a similar move with the bankers. The point you’re missing is that Ed’s the only leader who recognizes how much the centre-ground has moved since the financial crisis, and the revelations of corporate irresponsibility, crony capitalism, unfair monopolies and the corrosive effects of extreme inequality. These are now acceptable parts of the political debate where they were once considered the deluded rants of dinosaur left-wingers.

M: The centre ground hasn’t shifted nearly as much as you think. There is a real backlash against these ‘dinosaur left-wingers’. The Occupy movement is not where the public’s mind is. Furthermore, isn’t this ‘compassionate capitalism’ simply a gimmick? The parties are fighting over this issue of how to make society ‘fairer’, so it’s a competence issue, and Ed just isn’t seen as competent.

F: No, the public has shifted. It’s the media that hasn’t and still insists on partying like it’s 1997.

M: The time when Labour’s leader was actually popular?

F: Yeah, and look how that turned out.