Tunisia: Democracy or the Devil you don’t know

December 17th , 2010. Another day has started. It’s still dark, and he’s back. Back to his vegetable cart. Back to the streets. His motivation? Offering his sister what he never had: an education. But it’s not enough. Nothing is enough anymore. And so, on the 17th of December 2010, at 11h30, Mohamed Bouazizi, desperate, hopeless, chose self immolation as a sign of protest. That was it for him. A few days later, he died. And the revolution started. After decades of torpor, Tunisia woke up. Since mid December, the country has been out on the streets, protesting against the rising cost of bread, the increasing level of unemployment and the corrupt autocratic government that has ruled the country for far too long.

The Jasmine Revolution started asking for what every Arabic country strives for: a fully democratic state. For once, they resisted. For once, the omnipotent secret services could not suppress the upheaval. For once, the army was on the people’s side. And so, in less than a month, it has managed to provoke the resignation and exile of Zin El Abidine Ben Ali, Tunisia’s president since 1989. But it is not enough.

The struggle has not yet stopped; protests are still going on in many cities against the new government. They want justice against the man who exploited the country for so long. They want a radical change. So what now? With a government led by the Prime Minister Ghannouchi, known to be Ben Ali’s most faithful ally, no real strong opposition and a Parliament still controlled by the RDC, the fate of the Jasmine Revolution is not clear. Will it turn into a mini Iran post 1979? Will it leave a space for another dictatorship, like other Arab revolutions? Or will it actually, in fact, achieve its aims? Even if nothing can be guaranteed yet, it is highly unlikely that Tunisia will suffer the same fate as Iran. It has a strong history of secularism; no prominent Islamist opposition exists. The West can then relax and give its full support to the revolution; there will be no Tunisian Khomeini. It can denounce, refuse shelter and set out an arrest warrant against a man that was just a month ago considered a dear friend and ally. Tragic? More ironic. And clichéd.

The Tunisians might forget that the international community had its back turned to them for more than 20 years, but what they will not easily forgive is France’s offer to send troops to assist the Tunisian government in taming the upheaval at its start. That it will have a hard time justifying. It is probably why France has very quickly condemned the massive arrest of protesters in Egypt, and is calling for Hosni Mubarak to remove the ban on demonstrations he has issued after Egyptians, following their Tunisian brothers, went down on the street asking for the end of his 30 year long presidency. The whole Arab world, inspired by the Jasmine Revolution, is now held by a fever that does not seem to go away. The Middle Eastern youth is fed up with highly corrupt regimes that promise but do not deliver. With more than 20% unemployment and no real prospects, the Arab youth have currently two alternatives: leave, and sometimes never come back, or stay at their own risk.

But today, they chose to fight. Even in Jordan, sometimes called the Canada of the Middle East, protesters have gone down to the streets. And so, Arab leaders are scared: their reigns are threatened. The King of Bahrain has even recently asked for an Arab meeting to remedy to the general societal discontent within the Middle East.

The coming weeks will determine whether the Tunisians, and maybe the rest of the Arab world are in fact making History. We will soon enough hopefully know exactly if the Jasmine Revolution will in fact lead to the establishment of a democratic country within Tunisia, and maybe to the demise of dictatorships all around the region.

If it does, then it will be a valuable lesson to all: successful democracies can be set up anywhere in the world as long as the change comes from within. Otherwise, it will just represent another youth movement cut short, another transition from one autocratic leader to another. Tragic? More ironic. And clichéd.